GP Ouest France - Plouay

So it's another of the Autumn classics, the route this year has been slightly altered to make it a harder race, I'm not going to go into full detail mode (cyclingquotes has a great preview, read that).

The final 14km.

This race should be very active as there are a mix of lineups, a few teams like Katusha, Trek, Giant are here for a sprint with Kristoff, Nizzolo and Mezgec. Other teams are covering all the bases with a variety of attacking talent and the race should contain a lot of attacking.

Interestingly as far as I can see Katusha are only lining up with 6 riders to including Kristoff so he will need to be extra strong and every team will know it would be good to isolate Kristoff as he has gone up a level this year and is rightly the favourite for this race.

I suspect that if we get the right attack then Katusha will be left to chase and may not be strong enough to do so.

Really for this I want riders who could either go in a move or contend in a sprint. The name of that rider is Gerrans. 1pt at 12s with bv.

Nizzolo goes really well here too and I have taken 0.5pts ew at 18s with PP.

Alaphillipe is having a great year and I like him too. 0.5pts ew 66s.

Also done a Nizzolo/Valverde (vuelta stage) double 0.3pts 85/1.

Vuelta stage 7

Need to end a poor run for my blog bets and this stage would be a good point for that to happen!

The final 5km

The last 6km average out at about 3% and this should be an uphill sprint of some description.

Now in my short guide to the Vuelta in my favourite spreadsheet in the world (my bet tracker sheet) I had recorded this as "hard sprinter/fast climber". This should hold as long as a break does not succeed. The issue here is who does that chasing, Orica should be pretty tired after working for Matthews and then Chaves/Yates today, so maybe Giant will help for Degenkolb but this is right on the edge of his capabilities. 

I think this is a 50/50 between a break staying away and it being a an uphill drag finish.

One rider who could feasibly do both but probably suits a sprint more is Martens of Belkin, if Belkin do not get in the break they may lend a hand to set up a sprint.

For the break Simon Clarke of Orica could be a threat, a serial break rider with a sharp sprint and former KOM winner in the Vuelta.

I want two other picks for the break, they are Jungels and Bouet

Bets - Martens 50/1 0.4pts ew, Clarke, Bouet, Jungels all 200/1 0.2pts ew each Paddypower.

Vuelta stage 6

So got stage 5 totally wrong but there you go, it happens. This stage is one that probably 20 riders have earmarked in their road books.

The final climb is what is important here, 4.5km at a constant 10% on a pretty straight road. This will be very rapid and I can't see beyond the quality operators in the field.

I have a list of 10-12 riders who can win this. 

I'm expecting Froome to test his rivals with a strong push and anyone who wants to win this will need to be able to follow him. I think enough riders will be fresh enough to be able to follow Froome and can see Froome getting outsprinted at the finish, although if Froome's odds are big enough I will be on.

A few riders have explicitly named this stage as a target including Yates, Arredondo and Dan Martin. Yates has had a super year and has a great punchy finish but this is exalted company and a win could be hard but has a shot at a podium if its raced the right way. Arredondo doesn't seem to be in good enough shape. Dan Martin ticks all the boxes really and is one of my favourites for the stages.

Katusha bring a good double threat with Moreno and Jrod, from the two I would prefer Jrod.

Quintana is obviously a great climber but this is too short a climb for me to back him, I doubt he will lose any time though. Valverde has a brilliant uphill sprint which is why he's so good in Fleche Wallone.

Other riders I have considered include Kelderman, Contador, D Caruso, Evans, Chaves, Uran.

0.5pts Martin WIN 7/1 Betvictor

0.3pts ew Yates 33/1 Betvictor

I may come back

Vuelta stage 5

Sadly yesterday's stage proved too hard for my picks. Today we get another climb before a sprint finish.

This length of climb worries me for Bouhanni, all in all this is 23km drag with two steeper km to finish when I would expect some hard attacks from good climbers which could cause Bouhanni and a lot of other sprinters to blow. So I'm definitely not going hard at this but I do want some small picks.

I've gone for two K's both 0.3pts ew at 100s.

Kolobnev - Got 6th today so clearly in good shape.

Kelderman - Wilco has a good sprint and is always a good rider to keep onside when there is a late climb.

Vuelta stage 4

I was thinking to myself before this tour which out of the Giro/Vuelta has the really good road book? Turns out its the Giro, the Vuelta roadbook contains almost no useful information beyond the basics.

Here is today's profile.

The cat 2 that peaks with 26km to go is about 8km at 5% with some higher gradients but no km averages more than 6%, I think there will be some attacks over this but I suspect FDJ and particularly Giant will be very keen to race for a sprint as it's too far from the finish for a GC man to attack on the climb so I don't see why a GC team would want to waste too much energy to ramp up the pace. Therefore Orica, FDJ and Giant to share duties controlling the breakaway.

So presuming we get a sprint the finish is a very slight 1% drag with a few sharp corners in the last 5km.

It is very very hard to see past Bouhanni again today. 1.5pts 2/1 Various

Debus for the podium! 0.5pts ew 40/1 Various

Vuelta stage 3.

Onto Vuelta stage 3, a couple of climbs in the middle to get rid of bouhanni and then a punchy finish.

According to cyclingstage.com (top site) the final little rise is 1500m at 4.5% with 300m slightly downhill from there which looks about right. I think we need to look towards the hard sprinters here and I do not think this is a GC stage.

Therefore the stage winner books look quite attractive and the three favourites should be Degs, Matthews and Sagan. I'm backing Matthews as he's in good shape and I'm very confident he will be in the mix, Degenkolb is rapid but I'm worried he could be dropped and never get back on and who knows whether Sagan will be bothered to try.

Small ew bets on Boonen and Stuyven at 150s as well, Boonen can't win on a flat finish versus this field but after a punchy hill he could, Stuyven got fourth in stage 2 on the flat but is more dangerous in stages with hills.


1pt ew Matthews 9/1 PP
0.2pt ew Boonen 150/1 PP
0.2pts ew Stuyven 150/1 PP

Vuelta stage 1 TTT

The first stage of the Vuelta is a short TTT. Its flat and technical and will favour teams with powerhouse riders and good technical skills.

I have two picks at the moment.

2pts Trek win at 9/4, Betvictor

Trek have a lineup with 4 elite TT riders in it, and specifically TT riders who are good over a short distance, Cancellara, Vandewalle, Sergent, Jungels and Popovych is formidable and for me the strongest unit here.


0.25pts ew Giant 300/1 Coral

Giant are rightly outsiders as they do not have a good track record in TTT's but this kind of course could almost be a long leadout for a sprint which Giant are king at. The explosivity required out of the numerous corners on the circuit could favour a sprint heavy team like Giant, I sort of get the sense that over the long term Giant would like to be competitive in TTT's and they have been working on it. Arndt did a good TT recently and Ludviggson, Haga and Craddock are very solid also. Time differences over a short distance will be very small and Giant have a chance.



H2H's

1.5pts Lotto v Tinkoff 11/10 Various.- I think Lotto have a solid team for this and should go top 6. I fear for Tinkoff in this, late team changes, contador coming back from a broken leg, could well be a no risk approach for them.


H2H Accumulator

0.4pts Lotto, Belkin, Katusha, Cofidis, OPQS to win their PP head to heads. 29/1.

Vuelta antepost

For those of you who have read my tweets before a GT before it won't surprise you that I usually like to get pretty involved in the range of markets that GT's allows compared to normal races. This blog post is to record those bets.

GC

Horner Podium finish 9/1 1.5pts BetVictor - Horner is coming out of Utah in decent form and his shape has to be about the same as last year when he proved he can slay if not a class field than an in form Nibali. 9/1 to podium is IMO really good value. HORNER DNS THIS WILL BE REFUNDED.



KOM

Looking at the route I'm not totally convinced a GC rider will win this so I'm going to take two small punts on riders at big odds. 0.2pts ew on both.

Meintjes - 100/1, PP, B365, a super talent riding in a team that will look for a prize like this when probably a GC top 10 is out of range for their GC man Pardilla. Meintjes said he's going to target a couple of stages and has the climbing ability to go well in the KOM.

Tschopp - 500/1, PP, this is a long shot, IAM like MTN-Quebeka best hopes of making an impact in the Vuelta are through stage wins or a side prize like KOM. Tschopp is a good but not stellar climber but could have the legs and consistency to get through the tour picking up points.



POINTS

For me the GC is hard to call between Quintana and Froome and I can see why Quintana leads the points classification markets as he will be favourite in every summit finish and there is no bias towards sprinters in the Vuelta for points. However Froome is proven to be as good a climber as Quintana so I don't expect much between Quintana and Froome in terms of placings in the summit finishes.

However as far as I can see (without any kind of public roadbook online anywhere), the TT's will also count towards the points classification. Now here I expect Froome to be right up there with the elite TT riders in the race whereas Quintana although much improved is not at that level.

Therefore I'm having 2pts win of Froome for Points classification at 8/1 (Ladbrokes).


I also think there is enough points available for a hard sprinter to get involved on the podium as the sprint field is not strong minus Bouhanni who will be favourite for the pure sprint stages. The rider I want for this ew is Michael Matthews, he's having a great season, has every chance to come second behind Bouhanni in the pure sprints and should compete on two or three harder stages when Bouhanni, Guardini etc will be dropped. Matthews can also get a few points on the short TT if motivated.

Another thought on this is if Quintana goes out and destroys everyone on stage 9 or 11 then breaks will be much more likely to make it in the following summit days reducing GC riders points opportunities.

Matthews 0.2pts ew PP.


POINTS H2H

Debusschere v Hutarovich 1.5pts 2.3 Pinnacle - Debus is faster, has a better team, and a bit more resilient to hills than Hutarovich so hopefully will have more opportunities to get points.


TOP 10

Kangert 1pt 5/1 Skybet - Kangert is a proven three week rider scoring a couple of top 15's in support of Nibali, in this Vuelta he goes in as joint leader with Aru.

Uran 1.5pts 5/6 Skybet - Uran is a proven three week podium rider, this field looks a bit too strong for him but a top 10 should be the minimum he's hoping for.


TEAM CLASSIFICATION H2H

Double - Giant v iam, OPQS v ag2r 2pts 6/5 888 or other Kambi platforms.

Treble - Astana v lampre, Cannondale v europcar, Belkin v garmin 1pt 7/4 888

8 fold - the above 5 and MTN v orica, Movistar v katusha, FDJ v trek 0.5pt 30/1 888

Eneco Stage 7

Right I'm back for the final Eneco stage, which is basically a bit like the Amstel Gold race. After taking the stage and race win today Tim Wellens will need to be able to cover relentless attacks from a very very strong Boom and the rest of the contenders as well.

The good news for Tim is that he has a stronger team than Dumoulin and should be able to rely on Vanendert to work for him shutting down attacks plus in any kind of bunch sprint Wellens has a good sprint. This will mean that Belkin will try and make the day a hard one and hope Wellens suffers. Also BMC will probably try and set up the race for Gilbert and GVA again, and the bonus seconds at sprint points should be a target for belkin as well. So its hard to see how a break stays away.

I think we will see another day of relentless attacks but the most likely scenario for me is a reduced bunch sprint from the GC men.

I'm going for Keukeleire again today. 1pt win at 20/1 BV

I'm also going to have a bit of Breschel. 0.4pt win at 40/1 BV

Eneco Tour stage 5

A chaotic final sprint as predicted but the main contenders got through so no sprint surprises. The next stage is the first of three GC deciding days as cobbled hills are the order of the day.

In previous years this finish on the Geraardsbergen wall has been the finale of the race and was won by Stybar last year from Stannard, and Ballan from Boom in 2012.

Doubt there will be any surprises in this stage and the winner should come from the following;

Terpstra, Boom, Vanmarcke, Vanendert, Wellens, Gilbert, Quinziato, GVA, Cancellara, Marcato, Thomas, Langeveld, Keukeleire.

I like Keukeleire most here, he loves a cobble and I regularly back him on such terrain, Vanmarcke has looked super strong but got hit hard by a flying bike today so I don't think he can be backed with confidence. I would prefer Quinziato over the other two BMC riders as he's previously done well here and has looked in great shape.

Keukeleire 0.75pts ew 50/1 PP
Quinziato 0.4pts ew 50/1 PP
Dillier 0.1pts ew 500/1 PP (I had to take this because Dillier is a rider who one day will win me a lot).

H2Hs

Keukeleire v breschel 1.5pts 1.719 Pinnacle
Wellens v koren 1pt 1.793 Pinnacle
Marcato v gilbert 0.5pt 2.49 Pinnacle
Quinziato v gva 0.75pt 2.83 Pinnacle
Langeveld v de vreese 1.2pts 1.74 Pinnacle

Eneco Tour stage 4

On paper a sprint stage, but a stage which will be susceptible to the now familiar crashes and late attacks.

With a strong chance of rain all day this kind of twisty circuit is built for attacks and crash disrupted sprint trains. Therefore there is not a lot to be gained by backing anybody at a short price.

Richeze is now Lampre's designated sprinter after Modolo had to abandon and kept himself in good position two stages ago. Richeze has good speed and is more than capable of a podium here so I've taken him each way at 125/1.

I'm also going to take a small stake on Roy Jans of Wanty at 200s, Jans again is a decent sprinter whose kept good position throughout the race.

Richeze 0.25pts ew 125/1 PP

Jans 0.15pts ew 200/1 PP

I might return with H2H's if something catches the eye.

Eneco Tour stage 3

A 9.6km power TT and it's a battle of rider's who usually come second to big Tony!

Shorter TT's are much more likely to throw up surprises so I always like to take a punt on an outsider. For this stage I have gone for Ian Stannard, the out and back nature of this course kind of reminded me of the Tour of Britain TT from last year when Stannard was second behind a motivated Wiggins and ahead of Dowsett. I'm aware Stannard has had almost no racing since his injury but he looked strong trying to break up the field in RideLondon so I've taken a small stake on him for a top 3.

Looking at weather forecasts its looks like wind will be pretty consistent and that if anything the early starters have more chance of having a dry run, but again that's a bit of a lottery.

I'm really tempted by Rohan Dennis for this course, he has been so consistent all year but yet to win, we know he's in decent shape as the Commonwealths were only a couple of weeks ago and they were a big target of his. Depending on how you look at it Rohan's early start time could be a positive or a negative but I think I want to take the best TT rider of the early starters and who has a really good chance of winning anyway.

0.3pt Dennis win 16/1 Bet365

1pt Dennis Top 3 7/2 Bet365

0.2pt Top 3 Stannard 66/1 Bet365

H2H's

Terpstra v boonen 1.5pts 2.1 Pinnacle - Don't get this at all.

Dillier v van Keirsbulck 1.5pts 2.1 Pinnacle - Diller's been posting great numbers apparently, don't think he's good enough to podium v this field but hopefully can better GVK.

Boom v cancellara 0.75pts 2.4 Pinnacle - Think this will be tight, but Boom should be super motivated.

Wellens v stybar 1.5pts 2.3 Pinnacle - I think Wellens has a better TT than Stybar.

Mouris v gretsch 1pt 1.75 Pinnacle - Mouris is keen to go well here, Gretsch hasn't done a good short TT in a while.

Sergent v hepburn 1.5pt 1.75 Pinnacle - Sergent is a lot more consistent than heppy.

Mollema v vanmarcke 2pts 2.1 Pinnacle - Mollema is a better TT rider by quite a long way in my book

Acca

Quinziato, Cummings, Mollema, Dillier, Mouris 15/1 Bet365 0.5pts

**RESULTS**

TomDum beats Cancellara to the win, a mixed bag for the bets, but Mollema's abysmal showing torpedoes the acca and causes effectively a 12 unit swing against. About -1pt today.

Eneco Tour stage 2

Another twisty traffic furniture finale is waiting for the sprinters at the end of the second stage of this year's Eneco Tour. Throw in rain and another headwind into the finishing few kilometres and it could well be another messy affair.

The early books from B365 and PP have installed Guardini as favourite at an eye wateringly short 3/1. This is a huge over reaction, yes he has form but he is not faster than Greipel or Bouhanni and is just as likely to be caught up in crashes as anyone else.

Lotto got it all kinds of wrong in stage 1 but I'm expecting them to bounce back here and I'm backing Andre Greipel at a generous 4/1 for the fastest rider in the race, who won this stage last year and has probably the strongest leadout in Sieberg and Debusschere.

1.5pts Greipel at 4/1 various.

Eneco Tour stage 1

A flat stage to start with a hefty crosswind likely.

With a crosswind basically all day it's hard to imagine some of the teams won't try and break the field up a bit and eliminate some guys from GC from the get go.

Teams which are good in echelons and have the team for it here are; OPQS, Belkin, Lotto, BMC.

This could well be a really hard day of constant need to be positioned near the front to avoid the risk of being caught out by an echelon attack and wet conditions.

This means I want to avoid riders coming back from long lay off's (Bouhanni), who are suspect in the wet (Greipel) and back form or an outsider from an echelon team, but keeping stage winner bets small.

0.75pts on Guardini win at 10/1 various

0.3pts ew on Breschel 100/1 various.

H2H's

Guardini v modolo 2.13 Pinnacle 1.5pts, Guardini is coming off a double stage win and Modolo doesn't have a lot of form.

Breschel v porsev 1.75 Pinnacle 1pt, not sure Porsev will be sprinting for Katusha with Tsatevich here.

**Results**

Hugely messy sprint with crashes but my man Guardini keeps himself out of mischief and sprints for the win. A 10/1 winner and the H2H v the crashed modolo obviously wins too. The other H2H is a loss as it seems Porsev is Katusha's man this week.

Eneco Tour GC

The Eneco Tour this year looks to be a cracker with a great field and an exciting course.

First up is 2 sprint stages in a row. If the wind gets up these could also influence GC.

Then we have a 9.6km TT which will give good TT riders an advantage but I don't expect the TT to ruin any riders GC hopes too much.

Next another sprint stage and then the friday, saturday, sunday of three hilly stages with aspects of the Ardennes classics in all three.

I'll look at the stages in more detail when they come up but for GC riders we need someone who packs a punch on multiple short climbs and who can TT reasonably. But I'm placing more of an emphasis on the climbing over TT as for someone like Dumoulin to win this I would say the TT would need to be double the length but he may surprise.

Riders who I like for this; Stybar, Dillier, Terpstra, Boom, Mollema, Vanmarcke, J Vanendert, GVA, Cancellara, Thomas, Dumoulin, Navardauskas, Breschel

Boylesports have come out with a 4 place GC market for this so I'm looking towards some of the longer odds to start with;

J Vanendert 80/1 0.5pts ew Boyles - Vanendert was solid in San Sebastian and I think the course suits

Breschel 250/1 0.3pts ew Boyles - Breschel retired from Denmark early, I'm taking a punt and saying this is to focus on Eneco rather than illness as he was already out of the Denmark GC, a big price.

Vanmarcke 125/1 0.3pts ew Boyles - Vanmarcke has been great this year and I would kick myself if he placed. I'm taking four places as I think it will be really tight but if you want 3 places 200s are around.

I'm not particularly keen on any of the GC H2H's at the moment but I might return to the GC for another pick once other books price up.

RideLondon Classic

Seeming as this new "classic" passes by the end of my road I thought it would be rude not to write a preview. They have fiddled with the route this year and now the race comes in at 193km instead of 220km from last year, the climbs are relatively similar though and it should put a bit of tiredness into sprinters legs.

This is an unofficial profile "RideLondon-Surrey Classic Profile 2014" by Clive Jones which you can find more of on the 2014 wiki for this race here.

The two previous iterations of this race have ended in bunch sprints and this is the most likely scenario again even with apocalyptic weather. I'd be surprised if we get a winner from one of the smaller GB teams as there is a bit of a gulf in speed so for me these are the contenders;

Ben Swift - just endured a crash fest in Poland and in four sprint stages did not get in the top 150...
Mark Renshaw - Solid form from the TDF and commonwealths
Caleb Ewan - this guy has so much talent. gutsy ride in the commonwealths and Team Aus probably would have backed him over Renshaw had that race come to a sprint.
Elia Viviani - Just come off the TDF where he was working for Sagan but in theory one of the fastest here.
Sam Bennett - out performed expectations in debut season at NetApp and has been pretty consistent.
Michael Van Staeyen - Topsport rider who doesn't have the same top end speed as the above but is a threat.
Jonas Ahlstrand - Argos rider whose obviously irritated by lack of opportunities and is joining the Bouhanni project at Cofidis next year, hard to see how he wins this though.
Kristian Sbaragli - Major outsider but this is often a bit of a weird sprint, plus he rides for the team which carries the name of one of my blog charities.


For me its going to be Bennett or Viviani.

I'm backing Bennett at 16s 0.75pts ew at 16/1, Sbaragli 0.2pts ew at 200/1 both with Betvictor.

A break of sprinters got away and stayed away, Bennett was in in but popped and came 6th sadly. All bets down

Tour of Poland stage 7 TT

So it's time for the decisive TT in the Tour of Poland as Majka looks to keep his lead from the twin Movistar threat of Izaguiire and Intxausti.

The TT is 25km and pretty flat. As you can see from the map this is one for the specialists and not particularly technical.

Contenders; De Gendt, Meyer, Cataldo, Siutsou, Norman Hansen, P Velits, Jungels, Vandewalle, Vorobyev, Bobridge, Amador, I Izaguiire, Malori, Ludviggson, Le Bon, and I will include Majka just because he is riding on another level at the moment.

My prediction is Vandewalle, Malori, Siutsou.

Malori hasn't raced much for ages and Vandewalle is in form.

1pt Vandewalle ew at 12/1 PP

0.5pts Suitsou top 3 20/1 B365


H2H

Cattaneo v monfort 1.943 1pt Pinnacle - Cattaneo beat Monfort in both Giro TT's and was recently 10th in both Tour de Suisse TT's. Monfort is consistent, but consistent in 20-30th.

Poels v nerz 1.8 1pt Pinnacle - Poels has been training specifically for this TT, I don't rate Nerz' TT too highly.

Gesink v riblon 1.8 0.75pt Pinnacle

I also want to do some accumulator's as they are fun;

Cataldo, Formolo, Poels, Cattaneo, Bouet to win their H2H's 20/1 with Pinnacle. 0.3pts

Flens, Ludviggson, Cataldo, Poels, Formolo, Majka, Izaguirre, Bouet, Warbasse 0.1pt 250/1 Pinnacle


Result - Vandewalle Wins the TT, all other bets lose.

Tour of Poland stage 6

So after today's calamityfor my bets it's time for what should be the most interesting stage in this Tour of Poland, multiple climbs and an all guns blazing Movistar team should make this exciting.

Movistar finished today's stage with four riders in the top 15, surely they will try and isolate majka with multiple attacks and it will be interesting to see how he copes.

Niemec looked strong today so I think I will back him 0.5pts ew at 25/1 Bet365.

H2h's

Formolo v barguil 1.9 0.75pts Pinnacle
Cattaneo v warbasse 1.8 0.75pts Pinnacle

Tour of Poland GC

So as promised end of stage 4 is when to look at the GC in this race as we are now past the hazardous sprint stages for those fragile GC riders. Cataldo, Jungels and Arredondo are amongst those to have lost time in the early stages.

Three stages remain, two summit finishes and a 25km lumpy TT. Stage 5 is not too hard and I don't think there will be big time differences amongst the main contenders, stage 6 is attritional and should be good to watch as there are many short climbs.

And then a final TT to decide the winner!

Obviously we need to look at riders who can climb and who are at least not atrocious at a medium TT.

So who is left in with a shout;

Formolo, D Caruso, Priedler, Majka, Morabito, P Velits, Geniez, Monfort, Gesink, Weening, Sanchez, I Izaguirre, Brambilla, Henao, Deignan, Capecchi, Hesjedal, Zakarin, Inxausti, and Jungels/Cataldo at a minute behind the rest.

Majka is coming off a big TDF where he had to go deep to get the points jersey but he probably still is the best climber and has a solid TT. The price at under 3/1 is too short for me to be interested though.

It's difficult to know which Movistar rider to go for out of the options but ultimately I'm not sure any of them will be good enough, possibly I Izaguirre but again his price is too short for me.

The only rider I think with value in the market is Geniez at 66/1 with PP and 50/1 at B365. Geniez is a quality climber who is probably somewhat motivated by Pinot's exploits in the tour and is not too bad at a TT either, I was interested to see him do the French national's and finish only 2 minutes down on Chavanel over 48km which is a good effort. I am taking 0.75pts ew at the more available 50/1.

**update** Geniez Geniez Geniez, was awful coming in 12 minutes down in stage 5. Truly inexplicable amount of time, he must be ill or something. 

Tour of Poland stage 5

Classic tour of Poland stage. Time differences shouldn't be massive and suits a punchy climber with a decent finish.

Final 3km of the stage. The 16% section 200m from the end could just create the gap which wins this stage.

Looks tough but these climbs do not have big gradients.

Arredondo should be favourite for this stage. End of. One of the best climbers, and won't be marked as not in GC. The only doubt is his form but Trek have repeatedly said he will be ready.

I'm hoping Sebastian Henao has the same kind of punch his cousin has, if so this is a perfect stage for him.

1pt Arredondo WIN at 8/1

0.5pt Henao EW at 90/1.

H2H's

Henao v deignan 2.33 1.5pts Pinnacle
Geniez v vuillermoz 1.8 1.5pts Pinnacle

Result all bets lose. Grim.

Denmark stage 1

Just had a very brief look at this stage and I like the h2h of guardini v napolitano at 2.14 with Pinnacle.

2pt bet.

On phone so the blog is a bit sparse.

Result WIN neither sprinted but Guardini finished ahead of Napo.

I also advised a 0.5 stake on Guardini at 14s on twitter but Guardini was no where to be seen so that's a loss. 1.78pts up today.

Tour of Poland stage 3

Stage 3 in Poland and the organisers have come up with another sprint stage (SPOILER there's another one for stage 4 too).

We might see a break make it if its big enough but most likely another sprint.

I'm going with Jonas Van Genechten (can someone tell me if its Van Genechten of Vangenechten? as both iterations are around) of Lotto to get his chance to sprint after getting blocked in today, he's fast and it's likely to be another chaotic affair. 0.25 pts ew at 125/1 B365.

H2H treble

Lobato v bos, Farrar v maikin, Matthews v hutarovich 5/1 PP. 1pt

I'm also adding Modolo to win with Pinnacle at 12.63. 0.5pts.

Results ALL bets lose. Van Genechten wins the next stage instead ahead of guarnieri and mezgec.... told you he was fast.

Tour of Poland stage 2

Another long day awaits the peloton tomorrow with a 234km stage with a profile as follows;

                                                                                                                                                

Doesn't look like it is going to be windy enough to create any interest although what wind there is looks like a headwind for the whole route, so sounds like a sprint then.

Today's weather and crash chaos means pretty much all the sprinters of note aside from Hutarovich were not really involved or at least were not in position to be involved so form is still a bit of guesswork.

The finish is detailed below and we seem to have a corner very close to the finish indeed. On streetview the road where the finish line is has a fair few bollards and street furniture so I don't know if they are being removed or if we have a one lane finish. Either way it sounds a bit messy and to win the sprinter needs to be in the first five or six positions in this corner, so I will look towards who has the right train and is good at positioning.

I honestly fancy Tyler Farrar to go well today, Garmin were always around the front in stage 1 and they have a good team lined up to back Farrar.

H2H Farrar v Guarnieri 1.5 units at 1.77 Pinnacle WIN Farrar in 10th - Guarnieri 77th

Farrar win stage 0.5 units at 20/1 Bet365 Lose

San Sebastian

Clasica San Sebastian

This Spanish classic is usually a bit chaotic and it shouldn’t be any different this year. What is different is the addition of a final loop around San Sebastian to give the area some more TV time rather than just a few minutes at the finish. I think that’s fair enough and in adding the loop they have added a punchy additional climb to go after the traditional selection at the Jaizkibel climb which used to come 40km from the end but now is more like 54km from the finish.

Pushing the Jaizkibel further from the finish should change the race a little and should mean more tempo riding instead of big attacks as it is too far out and the climbers know the hard final climb will be decisive. The last climb looks about 2km long with 6% (km 1) 10% (km 2) gradients with peaks of 22% apparently, whoever wins is going to get up here very fast indeed, and on tired legs an already reduced peloton of say 30-40 riders is going to quickly shatter.

This is a picture from Markel Irizar’s twitter feed during Trek’s recon of the final climb. It’s steep.

And this is a video of the same final climb.

Traditionally this race has attracted Ardennes classics men and climbers and I think the additional climb moves this further towards the pure climbers. I expect Movistar to ride a hard tempo on the Jaizkibel and control speculative attacks; they might get help from AG2R too who have to be confident following the Tour.

A hard tempo is necessary to eliminate or at least put lead into the legs of riders like Meersman, Navardauskas and of course Sagan.

When the final climb begins I think AG2R will start it at a brutal pace and when it really ramps up Bardet will launch. Bardet is coming into this off a seriously impressive tour where he faded a little into 6^th place in the GC but Bardet is also handy in the Ardennes and is the first rider I am looking towards.

Valverde should really be favourite as in theory this suits him perfectly but a lot of races suit Valverde perfectly. For me he often doesn’t do as well as he should and like last year’s race he can suffer from the same lack of co-operation that Sagan suffers from. Allied to that Valverde seemed really tired at the end of the Tour. I find it hard to back Valverde generally and that’s not just because I don’t like him, he’s too inconsistent for my cash.

My secondary pick is going to Bauke Mollema. I know he did what can only be described as one of the worst TT’s I have ever seen at the end of the Tour but I don’t think that is indicative of his actual condition (he was on a new TT bike) and he has form in this race, last year he was 9^th after finishing the Tour very tired. This year I think he is in better shape and his poor TT might give value.

Both Bardet and Mollema have decent kicks and other riders I considered were Martin (unsure on condition), the Yates brothers (probably Adam over Simon), Roche and the enigma of Dani Moreno. I’m hoping this will be a 3-4 man select finish without Valverde there!

Bets

0.5 points ew on Bardet 33s and Mollema 40s,

Result - Bardet was set up to go and had nothing, Mollema got a fine second for an EW return. 3.5pts profit on winner picks.

H2H's

1 pt Kruijswijk v Ten Dam 2.20 Pinnacle - Kruijswijk aiming for good result I think Ten Dam is less motivated. WIN 1.2pts profit

1 pt Schleck v Arroyo 1.961 Pinnacle - Schleck was decent in the Tour and I don't think I could grow a beard the last time Arroyo did anything. LOSE -1pt

0.5 pts Navadauskas v Meersman 3.00 Pinnacle - 50/50 shot for me so odds are big. REFUNDED

OVERALL RESULT: +3.7pts