The final climb is what is important here, 4.5km at a constant 10% on a pretty straight road. This will be very rapid and I can't see beyond the quality operators in the field.
I have a list of 10-12 riders who can win this.
I'm expecting Froome to test his rivals with a strong push and anyone who wants to win this will need to be able to follow him. I think enough riders will be fresh enough to be able to follow Froome and can see Froome getting outsprinted at the finish, although if Froome's odds are big enough I will be on.
A few riders have explicitly named this stage as a target including Yates, Arredondo and Dan Martin. Yates has had a super year and has a great punchy finish but this is exalted company and a win could be hard but has a shot at a podium if its raced the right way. Arredondo doesn't seem to be in good enough shape. Dan Martin ticks all the boxes really and is one of my favourites for the stages.
Katusha bring a good double threat with Moreno and Jrod, from the two I would prefer Jrod.
Quintana is obviously a great climber but this is too short a climb for me to back him, I doubt he will lose any time though. Valverde has a brilliant uphill sprint which is why he's so good in Fleche Wallone.
Other riders I have considered include Kelderman, Contador, D Caruso, Evans, Chaves, Uran.
0.5pts Martin WIN 7/1 Betvictor
0.3pts ew Yates 33/1 Betvictor
I may come back
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