Disclosure - I love the Giro, there is no betting information in this blog.
The Giro gives us brilliant racing generally and is usually a bit more exciting and open than the TDF as there are less dominant riders and more opportunities for quality riders to get Grand Tour success.
There are plenty of places you can get really in-depth route information and I would point you towards the likely daily previews by cyclingquotes whose course analysis is pretty in depth and more than I can be bothered to regurgitate here.
What I will concentrate upon is the teams, riders and what I think might happen on each day and who I think will come out on top in each of the jersey categories.
Route
To be honest I think this is the easiest Giro route I can remember in some time and there are a fair few nothing stages thrown in as the organisers look to make the Giro less demanding and reduce the transfers in between the stages.
There are several stages which look like nailed on sprints (2, 4, 6, 10, 13, 17, 21) so I'm not going to look at those too much in this section, they will be a pure sprint and a pretty boring watch aside from the last 15km.
Stage 1 is the TTT, a discipline which seems to be a bit more popular this year with it's inclusion in the TDF, whilst not defining the race it will put certain riders on the back foot from the get go as some of the teams look really weak for a TTT.
Stage 3 looks a bit tricky for pure sprinters, but there aren't too many of those here. I would worry about Kittel or say Guardini were they here on the climbs at in the first two thirds of the stage but only the sprinters who come in a bit below par will struggle.
Stage 4 is one of several that will be on the punchy sprinters hit list.
Stage 5 is the first summit finish, a long drag up Monte Gomito to Abetone, it will be done at pace probably led by a Skytrain, doubtful of any big gaps but if anyone cracks here by more than 30 seconds they have 0 hope for the overall.
Stage 7 is a weird one, 264km it looks like they are trying to put a mini San Remo into the Giro as the profile gets harder towards the end of the stage. I love how the roadbook describes the home straight for this stage...
"The home straight is 350m long, on 7m wide asphalt road, with a gentle 3-4% gradient"
I doubt it'll feel gentle after 264km especially if the weather is a touch grim, could be a break, could be a sprint, either way the GC guys will need to be weary of time gaps up a drag like that.
Stage 8 is the second summit finish and will be a bit more tricky than the first for our GC guys, we should see the first real tells of who is riding well here as the stage is fought out amongst the big names. Whoever gets pink here should hold it until the ITT a week later.
Stage 9 is another could be a tough sprinter day or a break takes it, same with stage 11.
Stage 12 is a bit of a wall finish for our puncheurs and quick climbers.
Stage 14 is the monstrously long ITT. 59.4km! I love watching ITTs and this should be enthralling as massive time gaps will emerge. It's a bit up and down so it has something for the climbers, a real test after two weeks of racing.
Stage 15 sees another summit finish on the Madonna di Campiglio which is a long steady climb which should be very attritional.
Stage 16 comes after the final rest day and will certainly be an exciting day. The final climb is a cat 3 which isn't too tough on its own but it comes after a long descent off the Passo del Mortirolo which is a horrible climb, regularly at 12% with higher percentage sections as well. This stage will be critical in the GC.
Stage 18 screams breakaway and we may see a very rapid descent amongst the favourites especially if Richie and his tarmac loving colleagues are still in the mix, the descent is tricky so we might see two battles going on between the break and the GC guys.
Stage 19 has a tough but not crazy tough profile on first glance but this is a 236 km stage which will make this a hard summit day for our riders before stage 20's defining stage....
Stage 20 will be a fun watch! 150km's of nothing interesting which may or may not build up the tension, and then Colle delle Finestre followed by Sestriere.
That light grey section on the Finestre marks the gravel section that isn't proper tarmac. The climb is hard enough without that! Anyway this will be dramatic and really is a great way to keep tension in the race even if gaps are sizeable, have a bad day here and you will lose minutes.
Then stage 21 is a flat day to parade from Torino to Milan.
So that's the route, it's quite varied but the key days look to be 8, 14, 15, 16, 19 and 20 for the GC.
Teams
I'm going to go through who each team brings to the party and what the teams goals are likely to be, we have the usual WT teams plus wildcards in Androni, Bardiani, CCC, Nippo Fantini, and Southeast.
I'll do it alphabetically to avoid favouritism (
AG2R La Mondiale - Pozzovivo, Berard, Betancur, Domont, Dupont, Gretsch, Houle, Montaguti, Nocentini
Pozz should give AG2R a top ten GC at the very worst and realistically he should be targeting a top 4 GC finish. It's hard to see how he'll really challenge the top top guys as he's not a better climber and definitely a worse TT rider than several. The rest of the team will be peppering the breakaways whilst Gretsch and Houle should curb losses in the TTT as they are solid riders. The sprint stages are basically rest days for AG2R as they have no one to contend.
Androni Giocattoli - Pellizotti, Appollonio, Bandiera, Dall'Antonia, Frapporti, Gatto, Stortoni, Tvetcov, Zilioli
Androni will need to make sure they are in the breaks to get some TV time. It will be interesting to see how Tvetcov and Zilioli get on in such a long race as they are definitely talented but yet to really shine. Gatto could go close to a win on several punchy stages and they should focus on breaks and supporting him on those stages. Pellizotti presumably will lead on the GC but considering that TT I think it might be smarter for them to target the KOM jersey with Franco P as that might be more worthwhile for the team than 10-20th in GC.
Astana Pro Team - Aru, Cataldo, Kangert, Landa, Malacarne, Rosa, LL Sanchez, Tiralongo, Zeits
A very strong climbing focussed team to support Aru. Aru exploded onto the scene last year with 3rd in the Giro and 5th in the Vuelta which was very impressive, yet to revisit those heights again this year and he's recently been ill but he is a valid threat for the win. He will need to be at the top of his game climbing wise because he should lose a fair bit in the long individual time trial. I don't think the illness of recent times should effect him much and I think he'll be close to the podium again as a lot of the climbs suit him quite well.
Bardiani-CSF Pro Team - Bongiorno, Barbin, Battaglin, Boem, Chirico, Colbrelli, Pirazzi, Ruffoni, Zardini
Poor Barbin, Boem and Chirico! They are not going to have a lot of fun in the Giro. Bardiani have basically brought all of their best riders to the race, which is fair enough as the Giro is very important to the Italian teams and the Italian sponsors. I really think Bardiani are going to shine bright in this Giro, really good riders who could slot into a WT team. They will be a threat in every stage, I'm not so certain for the GC but in the riders I have highlighted above they have some serious stage hunters at their disposal. In addition the climbers of Bongiorno, Pirazzi and Zardini have shown really good form in the last week or two. If I'm in Bardiani DS shoes then I tell Zardini to go for KOM and Pirazzi/Bongiorno for GC as they can TT a bit better but it could well be the other way round. Pan flat days its for Ruffoni, slightly harder days Colbrelli and harder still Battaglin who showed last year he's a threat from the break as well. I really like this line up and we'll see a lot of them on our screens.
BMC Racing Team - Gilbert, Atapuma, Bookwalter, Burghardt, Caruso, Dillier, Kung, Lodewyck, Zabel
Kind of a mixed squad for BMC as they are still looking for someone to step up and fill the Cadel Evans sized hole in their GC riders, Caruso should be the lead guy with Atapuma to target a stage or two (maybe KOM). Not sure what Gilbert's goals are here but in shape he will threaten on the punchy stages. Dillier and Kung are huge talents and will help the TTT effort.
CCC Sprandi Polkowice - Paterski, Bole, Marycz, Matysiak, Mihaylov, Owsian, Rutkiewicz, Samoilau, Szmyd
The polish squad bring a good team of solid Poles to support there triple probably stage threat. Paterski has really shone in the last few weeks here, memorably winning the first stage in Catalunya and then winning the Tour of Croatia the following week. Szmyd is a solid rider for the mountains and will be targeting a top 10 in GC and Bole will threaten in the harder sprints. But forget all that... the real story is that they have a nice new bus for the Giro! It's big and it's orange.
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| pic courtesy of @tomek_bojan |
Etixx-Quick Step - Uran, Boonen, Bouet, Brambilla, De La Cruz, Keisse, Sabatini, Serry, Vakoc
Rigoberto Uran returns to the Giro to try and go one better than last year when he finished runner up. Rigo has been solid if not spectacular this year and the ITT will be all important for him as he is really formidable in the long TT discipline. However his build up this year has been more impressive than last year so there is no reason to suspect he won't go well, I'm a touch worried about his support though. Someone out of Brambilla, De La Cruz or Bouet is going to have to step up to be that luxury mountain domestique that the other teams have to support there leaders or otherwise he will be isolated quickly and frequently in the key stages. I also think they will not live up to Etixx's usual high standard in the TTT as aside from Uran himself I don't see who put the monster turns in that are necessary. I am struggling to put Rigo on the podium but as a consolation for Rigo I will include a picture from his shop.....
FDJ - Geniez, Courteille, Elissonde, Fischer, Le Bon, Mourey, Pineau, Roux, Veikkanen
No bolds here, it will be interesting to see how Elissonde and Geniez do, they both are clearly good climbers who have yet to kick on and really threaten, I don't know how much time they have left to show their class. No sprint threat, will have to be active in the breaks.
IAM Cycling - Chavanel, Chevrier, Clement, Haussler, Kluge, Pelucchi, Pineau, Reichenbach, Saramotins
The swiss team are looking to Reichenbach for the big climbs and GC. At his very best he might top 10 just. Stage hunters again. Pelucchi will need to be quicker than he was in Yorkshire this week to win one of the sprint stages but he will be up there.
Lampre-Merida - Ulissi, Conti, Ferrari, Grmay, Modolo, Mori, Niemec, Richeze, Xu
Diego returns to the scene of the crime, last year I laid him for top 3 in the long TT for a fair amount of money, silly Patrick. Ulissi has shown signs that his form is returning after his enforced lay off and several stages should suit him as he is a quick finisher who can win out of select groups. Modolo will be their man for the sprints and he may well be peaking at the right time as he was competitive versus Cavendish in Turkey and bagged himself a win in the uphill sprint stage. Niemec is most likely to lead the GC charge, a good climber whose TT lets him down, he has a fair shot at a top 10 finish and could take a stage.
Lotto-Soudal - Van den Broeck, Armee, Bak, Broeckx, Greipel, Hansen, Henderson, Monfort, Vervaeke
VDB is showing signs of returning to form, at his best he is a valid rider for the podium but it has been some time since he's shown that kind of ability, but he put in a really good TT in Romandie and I think it's contract year so he has to shine. Greipel is the fastest pure sprinter here on paper and despite not having his full leadout he does have Hendo at his service and will expect to win a couple of stages which is what he's here for as Lotto want WT points, not sure he'll do the whole race though as the Tour beckons.
Movistar Team - Intxausti, Amador, Capecchi, Fernandez, Herrada, I Izaguirre, Lobato, D Quintana, Visconti
Interesting selection from Movistar who are letting their young talent have a crack without being burdened by big Quintana and Valverde. I really hope Izaguirre does well as I had a sneaky bet on him at 500/1, the course suits but a top 10 is more likely I think. Lobato had a great start to the year but had faded a bit since, he'll be Movistar's man for any kind of fast finish.
Nippo Vini-Fantini - Cunego, Berlato, Bisolti, Colli, De Negri, Filosi, Ishibashi, Malaguti, Stacchiotti
Cunego will lead, Colli has an OK sprint. Filosi is a talented young rider who hopefully can shine in a break.
Orica Greenedge - Matthews, Bewley, Chaves, Clarke, Durbridge, Gerrans, Hepburn, Lancaster, Weening
Orica like to give themselves a few options to take success out of a race and this team lineup looks like they are targeting specific stages and leaving Chaves to fend for himself in the mountains. As ever they will certainly contend in the TTT, Matthews will have certain stages targeted and then presumably he will leave half way through and then Gerrans will take over. The ITT is too hilly for Durbo and Hepburn but they could do well in one of the non flat, non mountain possible break days. Chaves is a great talent who is learning how to do a grand tour, could well top 10 and if Aru is off his game contend in the young jersey.
Southeast - Belletti, Busato, Favilli, Finetto, Carretero, Gavazzi, Monsalve, Petacchi, Zhupa
No bolds I'm afraid and no GC rider. Several could contend in stages and have undoubted quality but they are either too inconsistent or too old. Basically Belletti, Gavazzi, and Finetto should be in bold but they have not been good enough this year to merit boldness. It's a dreadful team name as well, evokes the same emotions in me as when waiting for a delayed train.
Team Cannondale-Garmin - Hesjedal, Acevedo, Brown, Cardoso, Danielson, Formolo, Marangoni, Slagter, Villella
Hesjedal, the 2012 winner should lead, it will be hard for him to repeat his former glories on current form though. Acevedo has had a tough time with injuries since joining the world tour but if in shape he is a great climber and a simply amazing descender and I hope to see him go well. Young Formolo might struggle with the full three weeks but is a wonderful talent and might shine early on. Slagter will look to contend on any stage marked down for the punchy rider but he has had a little bit of a disappointing year so will be looking to improve here.
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| Ryder tweeted a pic of his 2012 Giro trophy, it really is stunning. |
Team Giant-Alpecin - Mezgec, Arndt, De Backer, Fairly, Geschke, Haga, Cheng, Ludvigsson, Stamsnijder
One for all and all for Mezgec. A good sprinter who can handle a few hills, unfortunately he's lost Veelers from his leadout which makes life it a bit harder and he will rely heavily on Arndt who is a good sprinter in his own right. No GC threat. I hope Ludvigsson does well in the ITT.
Team Katusha - Paolini, Belkov, Chernetckii, Lagutin, Porsev, Silin, Trofimov, Vorobyev, Zakarin
Well what can I say? The form team of the peloton. I would not want to bet against a Katusha rider who gets in a break. Zakarin looks like he'll do pretty well after winning Romandie last week v Froome and Quintana. Porsev should do the sprints.
Team Lotto-NL Jumbo - Kruijswijk, Bennett, Flens, Hofland, Keizer, Lindeman, Tjallingii, Van Der Lijke, Wagner
Lotto Jumbo really struggle on squad depth for a world tour team and they have struggled with illness this year. Hofland won in yorkshire this week and is a versatile sprinter who could well take a win for the team and I hope he does as he looked so pleased in yorkshire with his win.
Team Sky - Porte, Seb Henao, Kiryienka, Konig, Lopez, Nieve, Puccio, Siutsou, Viviani
Did Viviani get to pick which races he did in his contract or something. Really weird schedule, he'll have to wheel surf for the sprints as this is all for Porte to take his amazing form this year and use it to win the Giro outright. Even Henao when asked about the young jersey pretty clearly said he will sacrifice for Porte's chance at glory. Richie has been brilliant this year, the most consistent and formidable climber in the peloton and to cap it off he is a world class time triallist even versus the specialists. In support he has an amazing team including the two powerhouses from Belarus in Kiryienka and Siutsou, expect to see these two draining the life out of the peloton throughout the race. However there is doubt, he's always had an off day or two in a three week race.... but Konig could always take over and contend for a top 6 if needed.
Tinkoff Saxo - Contador, Basso, Boaro, Juul-Jensen, Kreuziger, Paulinho, Rogers, Rovny, Tosatto
Bertie is after the double of the Giro and the Tour, alongside his crack squad we've not seen much of him over the last month or so but I would be very surprised if he is not on form from the get go. He has very strong support from Basso, Rogers and Kreuziger who are experienced heads who know there way around a grand tour. No threat for the sprints and it'll all be about delivering Contador to the right point to make one of his trade mark attacks.
Trek Factory Racing - Nizzolo, Alafaci, Beppu, Coledan, Felline, Silvestre, Van Poppel, Vandewalle, Watson
No GC guys for Trek and it looks like it'll all be for Nizzolo, he's not set the world on fire this year but on home soil I believe in Nizz! Trek should be able to really deliver him perfectly with this kind of fire power for a lead out. If Nizzolo is dropped on a stage then I would expect Felline to be next in line.
Still reading? Well done! Now lets look at the various jersey competitions on offer.
I'm including screenshots from the otherwise wonderful Giro roadbook for each as the translations are brilliant.
There are several good sprinters which I think will contend for this jersey. I think it will be between Mezgec, Modolo and Nizzolo. They each have dedicated teams for the sprints with good leadouts. Nizzolo probably has the best leadout in terms of numbers however he is most likely out of these three to get dropped on hillier days like 3, 7 and 11. Mezgec has the weakest leadout on paper but Giant will be drilled and the team will be used to working in a sprint scenario, Mezgec doesn't have a lot of form though. Therefore I am giving the red jersey to Sacha Modolo, Ferrari and Richeze are excellent leadouts and he works particularly well with Richeze, my only fear is that he might have half an eye on the tour but as a proud Italian if he's in the race for the jersey I think he will stay the course. Other sprinters who could contend like Matthews and Greipel I see doing the first week or so and then moving on to focus on the Tour de France.
It is hard to look beyond Richie Porte or Contador for the win. For me Richie needs to be the aggressor and put Contador under pressure by doing the real punchy attacks he is capable of and used versus Contador in Catalunya on every short climb. I would think Richie is likely to gain time on most in the TT and then the Skybots should control the race from there on in. The fear is Richie having one of his off days or a wet descent but he is going to be my winner pick and Contador 2nd.
The final place on the podium should be between Aru, Uran and Pozzovivo. Ignore Aru's illness I think he'll be ready and will not lose much time if any to Porte/Contador in the climbs but he will in the ITT.
Uran 4th and Pozz 5th.
Other riders to fill out the top ten in no particular order... Konig, Basso, Intxausti, Caruso and Zardini.
So there you go my top ten is....
1. Richie Porte
2. Alberto Contador
3. Fabio Aru
4. Rigoberto Uran
5. Domenico Pozzovivo
6. Ivan Basso
7. Benat Intxausti
8. Leopold Konig
9. Damiano Caruso
10. Edoardo Zardini
