First up lets look at the course, RCS (the race organisers) have moved away from the traditional Muri di Sormanno climb and moved the course to finish in Bergamo.
The main change is that the bulk of the climbing has been moved towards the end of the race which despite not being massive these climbs will hurt and shred the peloton. The passo Ganda is the days main climb averaging 7% over 9km with steeper sections this will be the scene of either lone climbers making a long bid for glory or a strong team trying to drop any riders who can sprint a bit, as the following climbs are more suited to punchier riders rather than pure climbers. If Contador wants to win this race, Tinkoff need to hit this climb very hard.
The final climb in Bergamo is short, has a steep section towards the top and includes some cobbles, I would expect a small bunch to hit this climb of maybe 25-30 riders and the race will be decided here. There will be lots of attacks and a fast descent to the finish, it could be possible for a lone rider win with a gap from the top, it all depends on the co-operation in any group behind. It looks a 50-50 between a solo rider making it with a daring attack or a small select sprint.
To win this race you really need to be in form (and be able to climb) so that is a good place to start.
Valverde yet again has to be favourite for this race, he is so good at maintaining top shape all year long and he proved that last weekend in the world's where he achieved another podium spot (thankfully not a win though). He will be very difficult to drop on the climbs, it is only tactics that might prevent him from winning here, he has a really fast sprint at the end of a hard race but it is likely that he will expected to chase down attacks in the finale. His best option for me is to be the attacker like in San Sebastian, he's just too short to back at 3/1 sadly.
Next up is the new World Champion Michal Kwiatkowski, probably the most talented all round rider in the peloton, he has everything, and is clearly in superb shape. It will be really interesting to see how he goes in this race, the distractions and commitments that winning the world's brings could have taken an edge of his shape but I doubt it, the main concern is how his long climbing is for the passo Ganda, if he holds on over this climb he is a major threat.
Katusha should bring a really strong line up considering their utter domination of Milano Torino midweek where they had four riders in the top 10 including 1st and 3rd with Caruso and Moreno. This race should all be for mr Rodriguez though as he looks to defend a race he has won for the last two years, the problem he will have though is that this new course suits him a lot less than the old one, sure there is a steep climb near the finish but it isn't as long and it will be harder for him to get the same kind of gaps to win as he isn't going to win a sprint finish against Valverde.
There is a sub plot in this race which is the battle to be crowned number one WT rider which for the uninitiated it basically world rankings decided on placings in WT races through the season, it is really close between Contador and Valverde which just this race and a race in China to go. This may be the reason Contador arrives here with a very strong line up which almost looks like a squad for a Grand Tour, if they do not set a searing pace on Ganda then Contador is not in his top shape. He has only done one race since the Vuelta which was Milano Torino on Wednesday which he finished 6th, it sounds like Katusha managed to isolate him and then fired many attacks off the front and he couldn't or wouldn't chase them all down. I expect Contador to top six but not to win as he would have to do that solo from a long way out which is a hard ask, he'll play it safe and bank as many points as possible, therefore I can't back him.
BMC bring Sammy Sanchez to this race, a masterful descender if he has the legs any gap off the top of the final climb could be decisive. He had a really good Vuelta finishing in 6th on the GC and he has previous in this race, I will look towards Sammy if the odds are right.
Another rider to consider is Tony Gallopin, this is a bit left field as he has no where near the climbing abilities of the riders already mentioned but he can hang on and is growing all the time as a classics rider. He is another with a really sharp sprint when required, the race will need to be not too hard on Ganda but he has an outside chance.
Dan Martin is worth considering again here as he's done well here before with a second place and he can handle long races whilst the climbs should not be an issue. He just needs to stay on his bike! I will chance my arm with him one more time in this race and hopefully he can remain crash free and get a good result.
It would be rude not to mention last years World Champion Rui Costa, this course should suit him also but he wasn't particularly noticeable last Sunday and I'm not convinced he is at the top of his form. The same thing can be said for riders like Romain Bardet and Thibaut Pinot.
Finally I want to mention Warren Barguil, he had a great attacking Vuelta taking home 8th in the GC and has only ridden one race since which was the Worlds last sunday where he finished in the top 20, he is coming into this under the radar and may well shine. The climbs shouldn't be a problem and he has a handy sprint also, if the odds are right he will be on my slip.
And last but not least a mention for Niemec as @8aldwin (v knowledgeable on Polish riders) tweeted that he's in shape and likes this race he has to be worth a super outside shot at 200/1.
I've gone for these picks mainly because I see this ending with a small group with attacks flying everywhere and no one team having enough strength to chase everything and there could be a lot of Valverde wheel sucking with cat and mouse tactics from everyone's favourite trio of Spaniards. Therefore I want riders who might just be given a 100m gap which never gets brought in again, it could well end up with a Valverde/Jrod face off but the odds are far too short to back them.
0.5pts ew Dan Martin 20/1 pp
0.4pts ew Warren Barguil 66/1 pp
0.4pts ew Sammy Sanchez 33/1 pp
0.1pt ew Przemyslaw Niemec 200/1 pp
1pt Hesjedal v zaugg, and Zardini v cataldo double 6/4 888sport.
I also have small long odds bets on Rosa and Zardini (and additionals amounts on Barguil and Niemec) on Betfair as the odds were massive and its my last proper betting race of the year!
