Vuelta stage 14

This is the first really big test for the climbers. It's also quite long for a Vuelta stage at 200km, with what looks to be close to 65km of climbing.

The final few kilometers of the stage are really really steep, and if you think the break will make it you can only look at really high calibre climbers.

So what options do the teams have.

Lampre: Niemec, Serpa

AG2R: zilch

Astana: Landa (but may have to work for Aru)

Belkin: Ten Dam

BMC: Nerz (not convinced he is good enough, Evans seems cooked).

Caja Rural: Expect someone like Txurruka to get into the break but not good enough either.

Cannondale: Bennett

Cofidis: Bagot, Coppel - but I wouldn't be happy with my money on them even if they did make the break

Europcar: zilch

FDJ: zilch

Garmin: Hesjedal, Cardoso, Talansky

Giant: zilch, all to support Barguil

IAM: zilch (Tschopp hopefully for our KOM bet but I don't think he is strong enough to win).

Katusha: all for Jrod

Lotto: Monfort (although he has looked v ropey in last few stages).

Movistar: I wouldn't be surprised if they put more than one from Herrada, Izaguirre, Amador, Moreno into the break to force Tinkoff to work all day.

MTN-Quebeka: Kudus, Meintjes, both good options.

OPQS: Poels

Orica: Yates (may be on Chaves duty though).

Sky: Kennaugh, Cataldo, Kiri, Nieve

Trek: Arredondo, Zubeldia

I think we look towards a break today as there is a lot of work to be done between 140km and 190km where I can't see who drives it with enough confidence to bring a break back, Tinkoff won't as they risk exposing Bertie to bonus seconds, Movistar/Katusha should fear Valverde/Jrod being dropped by Bertie on the last climb and won't want to use men up.

My break punts will be the following, Meintjes (100/1 PP), Kudus (200/1 Various), Poels (250/1 Laddies), Kennaugh (250/1 BV). 0.2pts on each to win.

If it looks like its a GC finish then I will go again inplay.

H2H's

Ten Dam v txurruka 2.73 1pt Pinnacle - Weird one this, Ten Dam is just as likely to go in a break as txurruka but is a better climber so why is he the massive outsider? I don't get it so its a bet for me.

Gesink v navarro 2.46 1pt Pinnacle - I presume this H2H came up as Navarro was 9th and Gesink 10th in stage 11. Gesink put in an impressive attack that day and I think he's in better shape than Navarro for a test like this.

Martin v sanchez 2.00 1pt Pinnacle - see above, exactly the same reasoning.

Pardilla v anacona 8/11 0.75pt Ladbrokes - I suspect anacona could fade pretty rapidly in the coming days.

Chaves v nieve 1.95 0.75pt Pinnacle - Chaves is for GC and nieve is for Froome, Chaves is fading but this is a good climb for him so I favour him here.

Vuelta stage 12

A short flat stage.

A couple of corners in the last 2km but an over 1km long straight to finish.

In this kind of stage I like to back Guardini, he has a really high top speed when he can wind himself up. Bouhanni is an obvious favourite but is far too short to be backed.

1pt Guardini EW 33/1 Paddypower

Vuelta stage 11

After a brief blog hiatus I am back. I think I'm learning a lot through this process and hopefully can start to do a bit better as I'm having a lot of ups and downs and the P/L is basically nada either way!

This stage is nondescript until the final climb which is below;

It's a nasty one as most of the Mountain top finishes will be from here on in. Either from the break or the GC riders you have to be a good climber to win this. 

Now on twitter after the end of the TT I was pretty annoyed as a lot of my bets went out the window and I rather rashly plumped 2pts on Bertie at 2/1. Very tight odds but if this comes to a GC finish who is going to beat him so it could be worse. Even if I did it without thinking too much this still needs to count in the P/L as the rule is if I tweet with a points allocation it counts (other suggestions are not for the blog).

So we have a GC finish covered with my least favourite rider, now for the more exciting break options.

These are my shortlisted break candidates

Lampre - Niemec, Serpa

Astana - Kangert

BMC - Nerz, Evans

Caja Rural - LLS, Arroyo

Cannondale - Bennett

Cofidis - Coppel, Bagot

Europcar - Sicard

FDJ - Ellissonde

Garmin - Cardoso

IAM - Tschopp

Katusha - Trofimov, Chernetckii

Lotto - VDB, De Clercq

Movistar - Izaguirre

MTN - Kudus, Meintjes

Orica - Clarke

Sky - Nieve

Trek - Zubeldia

And now I've named half the field, these are my picks, they are all 0.2pts ew with Boyles to four places.

Kangert 125/1 - Kangert came into this race with a rare opportunity to be a joint leader, sadly that chance has now gone but he is still in good shape and is an experienced GT rider, he put in a good TT and a stage win must now be his target.

Evans 100/1 - Evans is a wily old dog who knows how to win stages, he did a brilliant TT without needing too and hopefully that means he has good form despite not being BMCs leader.

Nieve 100/1 - Nieve is climbing well and might just get the freedom to attack for a win on a climb he knows well (@gizza_tips highlighted this), this could potentially come from a break or a tactical GC battle.

Kudus 200/1 - Kudus is a climbing phenomenon and in some point he will shine in this race after a tough start, hopefully this stage will be that day.

De Clerq 100/1 - Another good climber who did a reasonably TT without really needing too, he could easily take out a climb of this nature from a break.

Zubeldia 250/1 - Zubeldia was climbing really well, but then he got taken out by the abrupt change in temperature and lost 15mins so stage wins are now his target, this stage should be better for him and the price is way too big. (This is with Ladbrokes to 3 places, same stake as the rest).

Vuelta stage 7

Need to end a poor run for my blog bets and this stage would be a good point for that to happen!

The final 5km

The last 6km average out at about 3% and this should be an uphill sprint of some description.

Now in my short guide to the Vuelta in my favourite spreadsheet in the world (my bet tracker sheet) I had recorded this as "hard sprinter/fast climber". This should hold as long as a break does not succeed. The issue here is who does that chasing, Orica should be pretty tired after working for Matthews and then Chaves/Yates today, so maybe Giant will help for Degenkolb but this is right on the edge of his capabilities. 

I think this is a 50/50 between a break staying away and it being a an uphill drag finish.

One rider who could feasibly do both but probably suits a sprint more is Martens of Belkin, if Belkin do not get in the break they may lend a hand to set up a sprint.

For the break Simon Clarke of Orica could be a threat, a serial break rider with a sharp sprint and former KOM winner in the Vuelta.

I want two other picks for the break, they are Jungels and Bouet

Bets - Martens 50/1 0.4pts ew, Clarke, Bouet, Jungels all 200/1 0.2pts ew each Paddypower.

Vuelta stage 6

So got stage 5 totally wrong but there you go, it happens. This stage is one that probably 20 riders have earmarked in their road books.

The final climb is what is important here, 4.5km at a constant 10% on a pretty straight road. This will be very rapid and I can't see beyond the quality operators in the field.

I have a list of 10-12 riders who can win this. 

I'm expecting Froome to test his rivals with a strong push and anyone who wants to win this will need to be able to follow him. I think enough riders will be fresh enough to be able to follow Froome and can see Froome getting outsprinted at the finish, although if Froome's odds are big enough I will be on.

A few riders have explicitly named this stage as a target including Yates, Arredondo and Dan Martin. Yates has had a super year and has a great punchy finish but this is exalted company and a win could be hard but has a shot at a podium if its raced the right way. Arredondo doesn't seem to be in good enough shape. Dan Martin ticks all the boxes really and is one of my favourites for the stages.

Katusha bring a good double threat with Moreno and Jrod, from the two I would prefer Jrod.

Quintana is obviously a great climber but this is too short a climb for me to back him, I doubt he will lose any time though. Valverde has a brilliant uphill sprint which is why he's so good in Fleche Wallone.

Other riders I have considered include Kelderman, Contador, D Caruso, Evans, Chaves, Uran.

0.5pts Martin WIN 7/1 Betvictor

0.3pts ew Yates 33/1 Betvictor

I may come back

Vuelta stage 4

I was thinking to myself before this tour which out of the Giro/Vuelta has the really good road book? Turns out its the Giro, the Vuelta roadbook contains almost no useful information beyond the basics.

Here is today's profile.

The cat 2 that peaks with 26km to go is about 8km at 5% with some higher gradients but no km averages more than 6%, I think there will be some attacks over this but I suspect FDJ and particularly Giant will be very keen to race for a sprint as it's too far from the finish for a GC man to attack on the climb so I don't see why a GC team would want to waste too much energy to ramp up the pace. Therefore Orica, FDJ and Giant to share duties controlling the breakaway.

So presuming we get a sprint the finish is a very slight 1% drag with a few sharp corners in the last 5km.

It is very very hard to see past Bouhanni again today. 1.5pts 2/1 Various

Debus for the podium! 0.5pts ew 40/1 Various

Vuelta stage 3.

Onto Vuelta stage 3, a couple of climbs in the middle to get rid of bouhanni and then a punchy finish.

According to cyclingstage.com (top site) the final little rise is 1500m at 4.5% with 300m slightly downhill from there which looks about right. I think we need to look towards the hard sprinters here and I do not think this is a GC stage.

Therefore the stage winner books look quite attractive and the three favourites should be Degs, Matthews and Sagan. I'm backing Matthews as he's in good shape and I'm very confident he will be in the mix, Degenkolb is rapid but I'm worried he could be dropped and never get back on and who knows whether Sagan will be bothered to try.

Small ew bets on Boonen and Stuyven at 150s as well, Boonen can't win on a flat finish versus this field but after a punchy hill he could, Stuyven got fourth in stage 2 on the flat but is more dangerous in stages with hills.


1pt ew Matthews 9/1 PP
0.2pt ew Boonen 150/1 PP
0.2pts ew Stuyven 150/1 PP

Vuelta stage 1 TTT

The first stage of the Vuelta is a short TTT. Its flat and technical and will favour teams with powerhouse riders and good technical skills.

I have two picks at the moment.

2pts Trek win at 9/4, Betvictor

Trek have a lineup with 4 elite TT riders in it, and specifically TT riders who are good over a short distance, Cancellara, Vandewalle, Sergent, Jungels and Popovych is formidable and for me the strongest unit here.


0.25pts ew Giant 300/1 Coral

Giant are rightly outsiders as they do not have a good track record in TTT's but this kind of course could almost be a long leadout for a sprint which Giant are king at. The explosivity required out of the numerous corners on the circuit could favour a sprint heavy team like Giant, I sort of get the sense that over the long term Giant would like to be competitive in TTT's and they have been working on it. Arndt did a good TT recently and Ludviggson, Haga and Craddock are very solid also. Time differences over a short distance will be very small and Giant have a chance.



H2H's

1.5pts Lotto v Tinkoff 11/10 Various.- I think Lotto have a solid team for this and should go top 6. I fear for Tinkoff in this, late team changes, contador coming back from a broken leg, could well be a no risk approach for them.


H2H Accumulator

0.4pts Lotto, Belkin, Katusha, Cofidis, OPQS to win their PP head to heads. 29/1.

Vuelta antepost

For those of you who have read my tweets before a GT before it won't surprise you that I usually like to get pretty involved in the range of markets that GT's allows compared to normal races. This blog post is to record those bets.

GC

Horner Podium finish 9/1 1.5pts BetVictor - Horner is coming out of Utah in decent form and his shape has to be about the same as last year when he proved he can slay if not a class field than an in form Nibali. 9/1 to podium is IMO really good value. HORNER DNS THIS WILL BE REFUNDED.



KOM

Looking at the route I'm not totally convinced a GC rider will win this so I'm going to take two small punts on riders at big odds. 0.2pts ew on both.

Meintjes - 100/1, PP, B365, a super talent riding in a team that will look for a prize like this when probably a GC top 10 is out of range for their GC man Pardilla. Meintjes said he's going to target a couple of stages and has the climbing ability to go well in the KOM.

Tschopp - 500/1, PP, this is a long shot, IAM like MTN-Quebeka best hopes of making an impact in the Vuelta are through stage wins or a side prize like KOM. Tschopp is a good but not stellar climber but could have the legs and consistency to get through the tour picking up points.



POINTS

For me the GC is hard to call between Quintana and Froome and I can see why Quintana leads the points classification markets as he will be favourite in every summit finish and there is no bias towards sprinters in the Vuelta for points. However Froome is proven to be as good a climber as Quintana so I don't expect much between Quintana and Froome in terms of placings in the summit finishes.

However as far as I can see (without any kind of public roadbook online anywhere), the TT's will also count towards the points classification. Now here I expect Froome to be right up there with the elite TT riders in the race whereas Quintana although much improved is not at that level.

Therefore I'm having 2pts win of Froome for Points classification at 8/1 (Ladbrokes).


I also think there is enough points available for a hard sprinter to get involved on the podium as the sprint field is not strong minus Bouhanni who will be favourite for the pure sprint stages. The rider I want for this ew is Michael Matthews, he's having a great season, has every chance to come second behind Bouhanni in the pure sprints and should compete on two or three harder stages when Bouhanni, Guardini etc will be dropped. Matthews can also get a few points on the short TT if motivated.

Another thought on this is if Quintana goes out and destroys everyone on stage 9 or 11 then breaks will be much more likely to make it in the following summit days reducing GC riders points opportunities.

Matthews 0.2pts ew PP.


POINTS H2H

Debusschere v Hutarovich 1.5pts 2.3 Pinnacle - Debus is faster, has a better team, and a bit more resilient to hills than Hutarovich so hopefully will have more opportunities to get points.


TOP 10

Kangert 1pt 5/1 Skybet - Kangert is a proven three week rider scoring a couple of top 15's in support of Nibali, in this Vuelta he goes in as joint leader with Aru.

Uran 1.5pts 5/6 Skybet - Uran is a proven three week podium rider, this field looks a bit too strong for him but a top 10 should be the minimum he's hoping for.


TEAM CLASSIFICATION H2H

Double - Giant v iam, OPQS v ag2r 2pts 6/5 888 or other Kambi platforms.

Treble - Astana v lampre, Cannondale v europcar, Belkin v garmin 1pt 7/4 888

8 fold - the above 5 and MTN v orica, Movistar v katusha, FDJ v trek 0.5pt 30/1 888