Wednesday 6 August 2014

Tour of Poland GC

So as promised end of stage 4 is when to look at the GC in this race as we are now past the hazardous sprint stages for those fragile GC riders. Cataldo, Jungels and Arredondo are amongst those to have lost time in the early stages.

Three stages remain, two summit finishes and a 25km lumpy TT. Stage 5 is not too hard and I don't think there will be big time differences amongst the main contenders, stage 6 is attritional and should be good to watch as there are many short climbs.


And then a final TT to decide the winner!


Obviously we need to look at riders who can climb and who are at least not atrocious at a medium TT.

So who is left in with a shout;

Formolo, D Caruso, Priedler, Majka, Morabito, P Velits, Geniez, Monfort, Gesink, Weening, Sanchez, I Izaguirre, Brambilla, Henao, Deignan, Capecchi, Hesjedal, Zakarin, Inxausti, and Jungels/Cataldo at a minute behind the rest.

Majka is coming off a big TDF where he had to go deep to get the points jersey but he probably still is the best climber and has a solid TT. The price at under 3/1 is too short for me to be interested though.

It's difficult to know which Movistar rider to go for out of the options but ultimately I'm not sure any of them will be good enough, possibly I Izaguirre but again his price is too short for me.

The only rider I think with value in the market is Geniez at 66/1 with PP and 50/1 at B365. Geniez is a quality climber who is probably somewhat motivated by Pinot's exploits in the tour and is not too bad at a TT either, I was interested to see him do the French national's and finish only 2 minutes down on Chavanel over 48km which is a good effort. I am taking 0.75pts ew at the more available 50/1.

**update** Geniez Geniez Geniez, was awful coming in 12 minutes down in stage 5. Truly inexplicable amount of time, he must be ill or something. 


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