Tour of Poland stage 1

Tour of Poland stage 1.

Quick blog here.

One of several sprint stages to start off the Tour of Poland, this is a long stage at 226k with a little bit of a lumpy final circuit. See procyclingstats profile here.

I think this is pretty tough after a lay off and I would prefer a rider who’s had some recent racing in the legs. I got a small stake on Debusschere of Lotto who is a sprinter with a good future and a recent win in Wallonie at 150s with PP. So I will stick with that I think for now, anything over 20/1 and I think that is value on him as this is really a third rate sprint field building for the Vuelta.

I will look at GC after the first four stages as I’m not sure there is anything to gain from GC bets before stage 5. I will revisit this post once other books price up.

0.2 pts ew if you can get it on.

**UPDATE** As PP have settled at 40s for a while I am going to record that as the price the blog achieves. 0.2pts ew at 40s.

**UPDATE**

On reflection I think Mezgec should be favourite for this stage as Modolo's condition is uncertain so I've gone 1pt win at 9/1 with PP.

**UPDATE**

Looks like Debus is a non starter, so PP have an escape and the 0.2 ew should be refunded.

I'm adding a head to head too, 1pt Bos v Modolo at 2.45 on Pinnacle.

Bos should have some shape following recent racing, Modolo tweeted five days ago that he would not be 100% in Poland but that he will try anyway.

I was tempted with backing the Lampre B team if Modolo's not feeling great but I think the risk is not worth it. Bonifazio is fast but will they go with Ferrari who hasn't raced since the Giro, and then will either podium? so I think the best option is to oppose in the H2H.

RESULT: Mezgec crashes with 150m to go, H2H wins as Bos 14th and Modolo nowhere. Profit of 0.45 units.

Introduction

Hi All, welcome to the inaugural Padsbets blog!

First of all I want to make a few things clear, gambling is risky and in cycling you can go long periods without wins and then hit purple patches, so please think about your stakes, bet within limits and only money you can afford to lose.

Secondly I’m not really going to focus on previewing every detail of stages  as there are plenty of other blogs/websites out there who already do that and I’m not going to duplicate. My blog will be on my bets and why I’m backing them and hopefully will have some guest articles from esteemed peers from the twitterverse.

I don’t have a huge amount of time to dedicate to producing a blog but I will do my best, occasionally there will be last minute updates or additional short thoughts on my twitter feed and especially in play will be done from twitter so please follow me on there too.

I will keep a blog record in a points system, where a total bank is 100pts and a 1pt bet is 1% of that total. I would recommend keeping a betting spreadsheet and a points system to keep track of your activities, the spreadsheet I use can be found at;

http://www.aussportsbetting.com/tools/betting-tracker-excel-worksheet/

My version is fairly heavily edited but this is a very good starting point to record your bets. Sadly cycling lacks liquidity and a lot of bookies will restrict winning cycling accounts pretty quickly, unfortunately not a lot can be done about that but let’s just say you’ll need to get creative and have good friends after a while...

A little about me

I work in financial services and look at numbers all day, fortunately this is something I quite enjoy but my weekday inplay is very limited as I am a hard working chap. I am 26 so I don’t have decades of experience of the sport and if you quote me someone from the 1999 Tour de Romandie I will probably have to use google! I used to watch the Tour every year but outside of that when I was younger I did not follow the sport. I started betting on cycling purely because I was pretty good at picking stages on fantasy cycling so I wandered if I could make money out of it, I started with a £300 bank a few years ago and I've not net funded it since.

To start with I will be writing up San Sebastien and Tour of Poland at the start of August, and from then on I will cover anything with a market and value. Please comment on posts or tweet me with any thoughts.

Good luck all.