San Sebastian

Clasica San Sebastian

This Spanish classic is usually a bit chaotic and it shouldn’t be any different this year. What is different is the addition of a final loop around San Sebastian to give the area some more TV time rather than just a few minutes at the finish. I think that’s fair enough and in adding the loop they have added a punchy additional climb to go after the traditional selection at the Jaizkibel climb which used to come 40km from the end but now is more like 54km from the finish.

Pushing the Jaizkibel further from the finish should change the race a little and should mean more tempo riding instead of big attacks as it is too far out and the climbers know the hard final climb will be decisive. The last climb looks about 2km long with 6% (km 1) 10% (km 2) gradients with peaks of 22% apparently, whoever wins is going to get up here very fast indeed, and on tired legs an already reduced peloton of say 30-40 riders is going to quickly shatter.

This is a picture from Markel Irizar’s twitter feed during Trek’s recon of the final climb. It’s steep.

And this is a video of the same final climb.

Traditionally this race has attracted Ardennes classics men and climbers and I think the additional climb moves this further towards the pure climbers. I expect Movistar to ride a hard tempo on the Jaizkibel and control speculative attacks; they might get help from AG2R too who have to be confident following the Tour.

A hard tempo is necessary to eliminate or at least put lead into the legs of riders like Meersman, Navardauskas and of course Sagan.

When the final climb begins I think AG2R will start it at a brutal pace and when it really ramps up Bardet will launch. Bardet is coming into this off a seriously impressive tour where he faded a little into 6^th place in the GC but Bardet is also handy in the Ardennes and is the first rider I am looking towards.

Valverde should really be favourite as in theory this suits him perfectly but a lot of races suit Valverde perfectly. For me he often doesn’t do as well as he should and like last year’s race he can suffer from the same lack of co-operation that Sagan suffers from. Allied to that Valverde seemed really tired at the end of the Tour. I find it hard to back Valverde generally and that’s not just because I don’t like him, he’s too inconsistent for my cash.

My secondary pick is going to Bauke Mollema. I know he did what can only be described as one of the worst TT’s I have ever seen at the end of the Tour but I don’t think that is indicative of his actual condition (he was on a new TT bike) and he has form in this race, last year he was 9^th after finishing the Tour very tired. This year I think he is in better shape and his poor TT might give value.

Both Bardet and Mollema have decent kicks and other riders I considered were Martin (unsure on condition), the Yates brothers (probably Adam over Simon), Roche and the enigma of Dani Moreno. I’m hoping this will be a 3-4 man select finish without Valverde there!

Bets

0.5 points ew on Bardet 33s and Mollema 40s,

Result - Bardet was set up to go and had nothing, Mollema got a fine second for an EW return. 3.5pts profit on winner picks.

H2H's

1 pt Kruijswijk v Ten Dam 2.20 Pinnacle - Kruijswijk aiming for good result I think Ten Dam is less motivated. WIN 1.2pts profit

1 pt Schleck v Arroyo 1.961 Pinnacle - Schleck was decent in the Tour and I don't think I could grow a beard the last time Arroyo did anything. LOSE -1pt

0.5 pts Navadauskas v Meersman 3.00 Pinnacle - 50/50 shot for me so odds are big. REFUNDED

OVERALL RESULT: +3.7pts