Vuelta stage 4

I was thinking to myself before this tour which out of the Giro/Vuelta has the really good road book? Turns out its the Giro, the Vuelta roadbook contains almost no useful information beyond the basics.

Here is today's profile.

The cat 2 that peaks with 26km to go is about 8km at 5% with some higher gradients but no km averages more than 6%, I think there will be some attacks over this but I suspect FDJ and particularly Giant will be very keen to race for a sprint as it's too far from the finish for a GC man to attack on the climb so I don't see why a GC team would want to waste too much energy to ramp up the pace. Therefore Orica, FDJ and Giant to share duties controlling the breakaway.

So presuming we get a sprint the finish is a very slight 1% drag with a few sharp corners in the last 5km.

It is very very hard to see past Bouhanni again today. 1.5pts 2/1 Various

Debus for the podium! 0.5pts ew 40/1 Various

Tour of Poland stage 1

Tour of Poland stage 1.

Quick blog here.

One of several sprint stages to start off the Tour of Poland, this is a long stage at 226k with a little bit of a lumpy final circuit. See procyclingstats profile here.

I think this is pretty tough after a lay off and I would prefer a rider who’s had some recent racing in the legs. I got a small stake on Debusschere of Lotto who is a sprinter with a good future and a recent win in Wallonie at 150s with PP. So I will stick with that I think for now, anything over 20/1 and I think that is value on him as this is really a third rate sprint field building for the Vuelta.

I will look at GC after the first four stages as I’m not sure there is anything to gain from GC bets before stage 5. I will revisit this post once other books price up.

0.2 pts ew if you can get it on.

**UPDATE** As PP have settled at 40s for a while I am going to record that as the price the blog achieves. 0.2pts ew at 40s.

**UPDATE**

On reflection I think Mezgec should be favourite for this stage as Modolo's condition is uncertain so I've gone 1pt win at 9/1 with PP.

**UPDATE**

Looks like Debus is a non starter, so PP have an escape and the 0.2 ew should be refunded.

I'm adding a head to head too, 1pt Bos v Modolo at 2.45 on Pinnacle.

Bos should have some shape following recent racing, Modolo tweeted five days ago that he would not be 100% in Poland but that he will try anyway.

I was tempted with backing the Lampre B team if Modolo's not feeling great but I think the risk is not worth it. Bonifazio is fast but will they go with Ferrari who hasn't raced since the Giro, and then will either podium? so I think the best option is to oppose in the H2H.

RESULT: Mezgec crashes with 150m to go, H2H wins as Bos 14th and Modolo nowhere. Profit of 0.45 units.