Milan San Remo 2015

The first monument is here, this Sunday it is time for Milan San Remo, an incredibly long race at 293km that you couldn't really imagine getting past the planning stages for new races in the modern age, but as the route has to get from Milan in central north Italy to coastal San Remo it's never going to get much shorter.

I thought it would be interesting to look at Milan San Remo's 293km distance by doing some comparisons....

Iceland fits nicely within a 293km diameter

The DF11 missile has a range of about 300km which is only a bit more than MSR.

Comparing MSR distance to the base of big Mountains. Olympus Mons is really big.

So now that we've established that MSR's route is long lets look at it in a bit more detail, travelling from Milan to San Remo the route has some key points to look out for;

Passo del Turchino - Coming after less than halfway into the race, in the early years of the race the peloton would be blown to pieces as attacks would be made on the pass which leads to the coast. By the second half of the 20th century the Turchino no longer became a crucial factor through the improvement in technology and road surfacing. Looking through some of the old photos of the race it's incredible that the same distance more or less has always been covered. In this years race it will pass without such an impact on the modern peloton but make no mistake some riders will be starting to feel a bit fatigued.

Giordano Cottur leads Gino Sciardis in an attack on the Turchino Pass in 1926 MSR.

Cipressa - An easy climb in theory but coming into this climb after 272km this is where the race will start to get really exciting, 5.6km at an average of 4% this is not spectacularly hard but there will be attacks out of the peloton as riders will look to go from a long way out and hope that the chasing peloton is disorganised or is disrupted by crashes. An escape will also look to increase any advantage down the descent, which is twisty and steep (you can watch a video of the Cipressa descent here), although the teams backing sprinters like Katusha or Giant will be trying to control any attackers and keeping them within a safe distance.

Poggio - The most important climb in the race coming just 9.7km from the finish is the Poggio. 3.7km long and at an average of 3.7% again in theory it is not difficult but immediately after Cipressa and with a highly stressed peloton at full gas this will cause many riders to drop away. The crest of the Poggio comes with 5.5km to go and then there is a very fast technical descent which finishes with just 2km to go. Therefore a small gap at the top of the Poggio can be enough to stay away, or sometimes not...


The weather plays an integral role in this race, it is a lot harder in grim weather and the wind plays a role too. The forecast has been moving around a bit through the week from guaranteed wet race to what now looks like a damp start but a likely dry/drying finish with a tailwind for most of the route. This means that there will be a headwind for the start of the Poggio but a more or less tailwind from there on in.

Now the candidates, there are a lot of riders who could win this race but I'm only going to focus on those who made my envelope long list.

Last years winner Alexander Kristoff of Katusha is bidding to be the first man since Zabel to retain MSR back in 2001, he certainly has the same or better form than last year winning a load of races already in the early season. He has the perfect attributes to win this race, a sprinter who can win bunch flat sprint days but who is also so much more, he can climb and like in Flanders last year he's not above chasing on his own. Gambling wise at 5/1 I think he is too short to back just because the race is so reliably unpredictable but he obviously has a good chance of winning.

Next up is Cav who won this race back in 2009 from Haussler, he's installed at 6/1 or so for several reasons, one is that he's started the year really well notching up some really nice wins, he rides for Etixx who are great in one day races, and this race is a target for him. Unfortunately he's unbackable as he had the shits two weeks ago.

Peter Sagan finally got the monkey off his back last week actually winning a stage in Tirreno Adriatico after many many podium finishes. Sagan is a brilliant rider who will win this race one day, I just don't think it will be on Sunday. If he is to win he has to go on the offensive, I don't see him winning a bunch kick ahead of Kristoff and other fast men who will be in play in that scenario. He's possibly the best descender in the sport and he should use that.

BMC bring their dual threat of Gilbert and GVA, I don't think either of them will win as I don't think they have enough zip on a flat finish, they are likely top 5 contenders though.

As well as Cav Etixx also bring two other major threats in Kwiacrush and Stybar. Kwiatkowski is another superb descender, has a great sprint and crucially the racing brain which has enabled him to outshine his junior days sparring partner Sagan. Etixx will definitely give licence to Kwia and Stybar to go with attacks, although they may be more keen on Stybar to attack as Kwia is capable of an excellent leadout for Cav. Stybar is such a rounded rider and a threat in almost any race, he did well last year and carries great form after winning Strade Bianche a few weeks ago.

Haussler is an interesting candidate, he's come back to the fore after a couple of injury plagued seasons and as a former 2nd place man behind peak Cav in 2009 is a definite option. Good in the rain, has great stamina and has impressed me in the sprints he's taken part in. He's not going to outsprint Kristoff/Cav/Greipel but he is a danger.

Talking of Greipel, he is part of a triple threat from Lotto-Soudal for this race, it's a big target for him in a reduced schedule for him this year, I just worry about his descending and his ability to stay towards the front of the pack up the poggio and then how he gets back to the front once he's out of position. It's enough to put me off him despite his relatively attractive odds. Lotto also have Gallopin, who did so well in Paris Nice last week and Tim Wellens, who is a Rolls Royce of a rider, pure class. I think Tim must be a late addition to the startlist as no one is really quoting him but he has good form, no idea how he will cope with the distance but I imagine he might put an attack in on Cipressa.

2013 winner Ciolek has shown decent form recently but I don't see how he wins, Lobato got a lot of people's money earlier in the year at big odds but his price now is too short for me, Swift got third last year which shows he can contend but again it would need to be big odds to tempt me to back him.

Bouhanni made a drama about missing this race last year as he was not selected by his then FDJ team, now he's shifted onto Cofidis as their undisputed team leader and this race is a big target for him. His form has been patchy but maybe just maybe he might be coming into form at the right time, he's certainly talking a good game, if he is on form he is a very very fast sprinter and cannot be discounted.

GiantAlpecin's focus will be on John Degenkolb, he was going well last year and then punctured at a crucial time. Degs is a pure powerhouse and I would back him to go extremely well if positioned right at the end of the race. Unfortunately the Giant camp has been suffering a bit recently from illness and unfortunate injuries and I'm not sure how much support he will have towards the apex of the race.

As well as Lobato, Movistar bring Alejandro Valverde who is a contender in every race he enters including this one. There is zero reason to bring Valverde along if he is not going to give winning a go, and from a small group he has a good flat sprint, but against the likes of Stybar or some other riders in that scenario I think on a flat sprint he'll be second or third.

Now onto Orica, they are grouped around controlling the race for Michael Matthews, he rode well in Paris Nice and they have an excellent lead out man in Daryl Impey to guide Matthews into position. Crucially I am certain Impey doesn't get dropped and will be there to aid Bling Matthews. I actually think Matthews has a good shout here, but I think he will have to be offensive to do so and win in a similar way as Gerrans tends to, out of a small group. If he and Impey can get into a group with say Stybar, Gilbert, Cancellara, Sagan, Wellens or other similar riders, I think there will be enough cohesion to stay away as they will all fancy their chances after 290km in a sprint versus each other. Also if Swift can podium in a bunch kick at MSR then so can Matthews so that attracts me to his chances also.

Other guys I have yet to mention who could do well are Navardauskas, Bonifazio, Gatto, Cimolai, Bole, Stannard and Nizzolo. Special mention out of these and my appointed wildcard picks are Navardauskas and Cimolai. Navardauskas is in good shape and is just an absolute beast who doesn't always make the best decisions but has a great powerful sprint which suits this race. Also Cimolai has been a revelation this year, he has won twice already and if you follow me on twitter I have been trying to get him mentioned on Derren Brown's live show under the hashtag #DerrenMiracle. I knew he was a good rider but his form this year has been a remarkable improvement and he is a valid threat for this race, has finished in the lead group before and is obviously riding well at the moment.

The elephant in the room I have barely mentioned is Fabian Cancellara, I may have this wrong but there is a stat that the last time Cancellara didn't finish on the podium of a Monument Sagan had yet to ride his first one. Cancellara is a legendary classics rider but he's been a bit patchy this year and he cannot attract my money at the understandably depressed odds available.


After bombing through all the range of options (and there are plenty of others), let's look at my scenario I'm going to gamble on the back off. I like the chances of an elite group getting away from the peloton as I think Etixx will get either Stybar or Kwiatkowski to cover attacks and I think too much might be left for Katusha to do to control the race for Kristoff. The shorter distance from the Poggio descent to the finish also aids this and I think a group could leak away on the last few hundred meters of the Poggio and then maintain an advantage.

My bets then are;

Michael Matthews 1.6pt win 22/1

Ramunas Navardauskas 0.3pt ew 100/1

Davide Cimolai 0.3pt ew 80/1

Michal Kwiatkowski 0.5pt win 33/1

Nacer Bouhanni 0.5pt win 33/1

Go on oddschecker as these are available on multiple books.


H2Hs as tweeted earlier.

Puncheur Double Day!

As I have had a couple of decent days and I finished work at a friendly hour today I have decided to write a double header blog on the next stage in each of Tirreno-Adriatico and Paris Nice which both take place tomorrow.

Both stages will have contenders of similar stature and type hence the puncheur double header.


Paris Nice first, now this stage in theory is tailor made for Bling aka Michael Matthews, he is superb at these uphill sprints as shown already in this race and this slightly harder finish just suits him even better than the stage he won did. The problem is that Orica did a lot of work today as Bling was in the leaders jersey and they may not be that keen to do all the work again tomorrow as they will be expected too as Bling is favourite. Therefore I think a break has about a 40% chance of making it tomorrow and maybe a 60% chance of a bunch uphill sprint, of course it all depends who is in the break but if Orica and Giant put someone in it then I'd be surprised to see it come back.

The break tomorrow will take some getting into though as the stage starts on a climb so only the strong will be able to cope with what is almost certain to be a blistering start to the day as every non GC rider tries to get into the days escape. Good contenders for this are; Albasini, Impey, Keukeliere, Clarke (Orica), Hivert, Dillier, Boom, Howes, Voeckler and probably plenty more.

The prevalence of Orica riders in my break candidates really does show just how much Orica will decide the outcome, any of those 4 could win from a break if they don't get in the break they bring it back for Bling and provide him with a superb leadout. The devil for the break is picking who gets into it! I'll have a few long odds darts but it's not an easy thing to do...

If the stage comes back to a bunch kick then the finishing 500m uphill on tight roads will mean a huge fight for position and a strong leadout will be vital. A lot of the sprinters will fancy there chances but I'm not convinced in anyone bar Bling (and maybe Degenkolb/Nizzolo) for the gradient which is in the region of 8%, riders who are bit lighter with a bit more punch would be favoured for me, in particular Tony Gallopin who is climbing really well this week and packs a good sprint, indeed he won a sprint a few weeks ago, others would include Vichot, Chavanel, Costa, and Samuel Dumoulin.

Tirreno-Adriatico is a bit more straightforward. Tinkoff will bring this stage to a sprint finish for Sagan, nailed on. He won the exact same stage last year and is favourite to do so again this time round. It really is tailor made for him and it would be a huge surprise to me if he doesn't top 5 at least. 

The above video recaps the important bit of last year's stage and it'll be v similar this time round, although I think we will see an even greater fight as GC teams get involved. Last year there were time gaps as the bunch split apart and all the GC riders will be looking to avoid that.

Alongside Sagan who is the standout candidate here other riders who will be in with a chance are; Stybar, GVA, Cancellara, Cort, Navardauskas, Haas, Vanmarcke, Martin, Martens, Ligthart and again other punchy fastish riders.

Now onto my bets....

Paris Nice

I think we are most likely to get a sprint as not all teams are going to be represented in a break, OPQS may want to try and get Kwia in the mix for bonus seconds, so despite contradicting my earlier thoughts I am mostly going to bet for that scenario but only with small stakes as I have little certainty in the race scenario.

I'm close to backing Matthews but at 7/2 I think it's just too short for me so I am going to go with 3 outsiders who I think are overpriced. 

Nizzolo 66/1 0.5pt e/w - I've backed Nizzolo all week and I don't see why I should stop now. He is better at uphill sprints than flat ones, the gradient might be a little on the high side for him but so is the price.

Gallopin 50/1 0.5pt e/w - Crazy price for a rider who is in top form, he's won sprints already this year beating good riders and I expect him to be there of there abouts.

Sam Dumoulin 80/1 0.5pt e/w - Even crazier price, fast rider in great form and won last weekend where he distanced a strong field to win solo up on a tricky tight finish.

All the above with Ladbrokes.

Tirreno Adriatico

Nailed on punchy sprint as described before.

Again I just think Sagan is too short at 5/4 for this stage, a lot of funny things happen in cycling and I struggle to ever back a rider at that low a price. So my alternative is Magnus Cort Nielsen at 50/1 0.5pt ew PP. He is clearly in good shape as he showed in Strade Bianche and he did well today, this stage suits his particular set of skills better and he could take the win.

Paris Nice

The race to the Sun as the riders cross France from cold Paris to the relative warmth of the riviera is a big race but this year it has lost out to Tirreno Adriatico for the superstar names of Froome, Contador, Quintana etc. However that might make this a bit more interesting as a lot of the riders who are looking to bridge that gap are riding.

The course basically breaks down to a short prologue where time gaps will be 10-20 secs between the main GC guys at best, a few sprint stages and then stage 4 is a summit finish up the 10k long steady 6-7% climb of Chaubouret. An uphill sprint in stage 5, a climby day for stage 6 with a long descent into the finish which could be an exciting days racing. Stage 7 will be a decisive final mountain ITT up Col d'Eze.

This course basically means I do not see much value in GC bets until we've seen the first few stages. There is not a lot to gain amongst the GC guys until stage 4 but a lot could be lost in that time, just need some crosswinds on the flat stages, a crash, mechanical whatever and the bet is down the drain before the meaningful points of the race. Although I have taken 0.25pt ew on Sepulveda at 300s (tweeted earlier) just because it was a massive price

So with that in mind I'm more interested in the opening prologue, utterly flat, 6.7km in length, not a lot of wind forecast and dry conditions. This kind of length TTs are really interesting, and extremely difficult to predict as the time gaps are so small. They also open up the winner picks from the normal TT specialists to other riders who can sustain high speed over shorter distances. A good example is the slightly shorter prologue from Romandie last year, also pan flat 5.57km long and you get a top ten looking like the below;

OK the top two are TT specialists but there is also two sprinters in Kittel and Nizzolo beating Tony Martin and just 9 seconds covering the top ten. I'm expecting a similar looking make up from tomorrow's prologue in Maurepas.

The course looks like the below;

My bets for this are;

Wilco Kelderman 0.5pt ew 40/1 BV (tweeted earlier)

Wilco is a very good TT rider which has been masked a little by a crap bike, this year he's got a good TT bike to play with and I think through the season he'll post some strong results (I'm on him at 300s for the prologue in the TDF as well).


Rohan Dennis 1pt WIN 10/1 various

Rohan is great at the short TTs and he might put on a bit of a show here, apparently he has been putting in some mega training post his hour record and is targeting this prologue before working for TJVG in the overall.


Giacomo Nizzolo 0.15pt ew 125/1 ew Bet365

I just have a sneaky suspicion that Nizzolo might put in a big ride to test himself, in Le Samyn he was in good shape but had a problem with his wheel and he can do a fine short TT. I had to put this on just in case he went and did well...



One H2H is with Ladbrokes...

Ion Izaguirre v taaramae 11/8 for the prologue! 3pts on this.

Izaguirre is a good TT rider, Taaramae is not particularly and has been a bit ill.

Strade Bianche 2015

It's time for Strade Bianche, a relatively new race to the calendar but one which has quickly become a classic due to its spectacular scenery and racing provided by the white gravel roads that the peloton cross over at various points in the race. These gravel sections combined with numerous hills and the final wall in Siena make this a hard race generally won by the elite puncheurs of the peloton.

Strade Bianche in the dry is picturesque and dusty, in the wet it's less fun.

The Strade Bianche parcours is up and down and over gravel all day, above is the last 20k

The route is pretty much the same as last year and the weather looks to be set fair so the best place to look for a guide to the race is last years race, which was a cracker. I remember fondly the cheer that went up on Look Mum No Hands when Kwia broke Sagan with a hard attack on the Siena wall, (not quite sure why Kwia was the crowd favourite, maybe they had money on him, I didn't). A good guide to last year's race is again Cosmo's how the race was won which I've linked below;

To win this race a rider needs the following; Power and punch up short sharp climbs and bike handling skills to deal with the up and down on the gravel, a strong team and a bit of luck will also help.

So lets look at the contenders...

AG2R - Montaguti, Betancur, Nocentini, don't think Montaguti is good enough, Betancur could be in any shape, Nocentini is getting on a bit.

Androni - Gatto, Tvetcov, I'll be interested to see how Tvetcov does in this kind of race, he has a lot of talent and certainly the engine for a race like this.

Astana - Nibali, Lutsenko, I think Lutsenko is most likely to be Astana's lead here, it's a bit early for Nibali to be in top shape still as his targets are later in the year. Lutsenko is a talent...

Bardiani - Bongiorno, Colbrelli, Battaglin, they have brought basically all their good riders to a race on home soil, they'll certainly be visible but it's difficult to see how any of the team can win this race.

BMC - Van Avermaet, Stetina, GVA comes in on the back of some OK performances and what sound like fairly flimsy doping allegations, he knows this race and is certainly a contender, he should have full support from BMC but I don't think he'll win here.

Etixx - Stybar, Uran, Terpstra, despite only Uran returning to the race from the team who had the winner last year in Kwia Etixx still have the strongest team here, just like in pretty much every classic race through the year really. Terpstra and Stybar should have no issues with the terrain as they are supreme bike handlers and they are both in great shape, Uran is a bit more unknown but if in form he could go well.

Lampre - Not a lot to get excited about here, Pozzato doesn't have much history here. Niemec is a good rider though who likes this race. I think he's likely to top 10-15.

Movistar - Valverde, Amador, a strong team to support AV who as ever will be in good form and will definitely be a contender, the best of the rest last year after missing Sagan and Kwia's tactical move. It will be surprising if Valverde does not top 5. Amador gives great support in this race and generally finishes reasonably high up.

Orica - Gerrans, Yates, Gerro is just back from injury so it would take decent odds for me to back him and Yates struggled in La Drome last weekend so I'm not sure there is much to see here for the australian team.

Southeast - Finetto, Gavazzi, the Southeast team have a couple of OK contenders here, Gavazzi has been finishing on the podium in one day races frequently and Finetto has quality. Doubtful either are worth backing though even at largish prices, the wall in Siena will be too much. Expect them to be active though to get on the TV in a home race.

Cannondale-Garmin - Moser, 2013 winner Moser had a crap year in 2014 but has shown signs of life in 2015 which means that he should be considered a contender for this race. He needs to have some good results to show that he is delivering on the promise he once showed and he obviously is decent in this race. I'm struggling to see how he wins though.

Katusha - I'm looking blankly at their team and I still do not understand their selection policy. Why is Tsatevich riding here and didn't ride in Le Samyn on Wednesday where he has 1st and 2nd in his last two rides at that race. The team is making up the numbers here. To be fair Caruso came 8th here a couple of years ago but for a well budgeted team I don't think they have great squad depth.

LottoNL-Jumbo - Vanmarcke, Martens, I'd rate Vanmarcke and Martens a bit higher for this race if the team had managed to bring more than 5 riders. That is not a lot of support so if either of these guys is to contend then they will need luck. Vanmarcke is in great shape so cannot be dismissed but I think the final wall is too punchy for him.

Sky - Kennaugh, apparently Sky are riding for Kennaugh and Puccio (no chance) here. Kennaugh is a class act with a lot to come but not in this race.

Tinkoff - Sagan, Kreuziger, king of 2nd in Strade Bianche Peter Sagan (2014, 2013) will lead Tinkoff, the race suits him perfectly and he's been in good shape all year but hasn't won a race yet. He will only get stronger though and Kreuziger should provide good support.

Trek - Cancellara, Felline, Stuyven, The classics god Cancellara has won this race twice before and is hunting for another win as he now has more focus on winning more often rather than just focussing on the Goliath classics like last year. He got a good win in a stage in Oman when amongst others he beat Sagan out of a select group and he obviously likes this race. Felline has been going well recently with a string of high finishes and Stuyven just exudes quality and is a star of the future.


Tactically I think Etixx will have numbers on the other teams but they so often find a way to get mugged (Omloop, Le Samyn) that it doesn't mean they will necessarily win despite the likelihood of them having numbers once the race breaks up. Does Stybar or Terpstra have the uphill punch to drop Sagan on the wall in Siena like Kwia did last year, I'm not so sure and Sagan will either have to be dropped or tactically outmanouvred.

I like Trek's options here, Cancellara will be super strong and loves the race, he's obviously got a good sprint on him at the moment and he could definitely win solo also. I think he'll probably have company of Felline and Stuyven as support too. In fact I think Cancellara could be the man to beat, therefore he's my main pick at 7/1, twice winner and in great shape it's 1.5pt WIN.

As I tweeted earlier I want to cover off Stuyven and I tipped him up 0.3pt ew at 250s, he's now 150s but still backable. The guy is brilliant and I think a touch underrated in the markets, at some point he will win a big race, this could be that race.

For a H2H bet I'm backing Niemec v pellizotti 6/5 for 1.5pt. Niemec has form and history at this race, Pellizotti has form but I just think Niemec is likely to beat him.

An absolute stonker of a H2H is Terpstra v cunego on the Kambi sites at 11/10. Terpstra is one of the strongest riders out there and probably a bit of value in the win market too but I'm going to cover him off here. Cunego is no longer the dope fuelled force he once was and I don't expect him to go that well here to be the underdog in this matchup is mental. I have 3pts on this across the sites (888, 32red, Unibet and there are others).