Vuelta stage 11

After a brief blog hiatus I am back. I think I'm learning a lot through this process and hopefully can start to do a bit better as I'm having a lot of ups and downs and the P/L is basically nada either way!

This stage is nondescript until the final climb which is below;

It's a nasty one as most of the Mountain top finishes will be from here on in. Either from the break or the GC riders you have to be a good climber to win this. 

Now on twitter after the end of the TT I was pretty annoyed as a lot of my bets went out the window and I rather rashly plumped 2pts on Bertie at 2/1. Very tight odds but if this comes to a GC finish who is going to beat him so it could be worse. Even if I did it without thinking too much this still needs to count in the P/L as the rule is if I tweet with a points allocation it counts (other suggestions are not for the blog).

So we have a GC finish covered with my least favourite rider, now for the more exciting break options.

These are my shortlisted break candidates

Lampre - Niemec, Serpa

Astana - Kangert

BMC - Nerz, Evans

Caja Rural - LLS, Arroyo

Cannondale - Bennett

Cofidis - Coppel, Bagot

Europcar - Sicard

FDJ - Ellissonde

Garmin - Cardoso

IAM - Tschopp

Katusha - Trofimov, Chernetckii

Lotto - VDB, De Clercq

Movistar - Izaguirre

MTN - Kudus, Meintjes

Orica - Clarke

Sky - Nieve

Trek - Zubeldia

And now I've named half the field, these are my picks, they are all 0.2pts ew with Boyles to four places.

Kangert 125/1 - Kangert came into this race with a rare opportunity to be a joint leader, sadly that chance has now gone but he is still in good shape and is an experienced GT rider, he put in a good TT and a stage win must now be his target.

Evans 100/1 - Evans is a wily old dog who knows how to win stages, he did a brilliant TT without needing too and hopefully that means he has good form despite not being BMCs leader.

Nieve 100/1 - Nieve is climbing well and might just get the freedom to attack for a win on a climb he knows well (@gizza_tips highlighted this), this could potentially come from a break or a tactical GC battle.

Kudus 200/1 - Kudus is a climbing phenomenon and in some point he will shine in this race after a tough start, hopefully this stage will be that day.

De Clerq 100/1 - Another good climber who did a reasonably TT without really needing too, he could easily take out a climb of this nature from a break.

Zubeldia 250/1 - Zubeldia was climbing really well, but then he got taken out by the abrupt change in temperature and lost 15mins so stage wins are now his target, this stage should be better for him and the price is way too big. (This is with Ladbrokes to 3 places, same stake as the rest).