Tour of Oman

The third and final of the middle east tours visits Oman, which provides a completely different style of race than last weeks windfest in Qatar. Unlike Qatar, Oman has some hills and a mountain and it takes full use of them with an interesting route providing something for sprinters, puncheurs, and pure climbers.

The GC in Oman is going to be decided by Green Mountain, stage 4 finishes at the summit of what is definitely a hard climb.

Green mountain is 5.7km at over 10% average, this is a big test and will be won by a pure climber. Previous winners have been Gesink, Nibali, Jrod, and Froome last year. Below is highlights from last years summit finish where Froome won with a blistering attack that no one could go with.

There are stage win bonuses through all the stages in the race, the one that potentially could shape the GC a little is stage 5 to the Ministry of Housing, an exciting stage tackling some short sharp climbs towards the finish has seen small groups contest the stage win in the last few years, with Froome winning from Contador and Jrod in 2013 and Sagan winning from Uran and Nibali in 2014. Now Sagan has a stronger team at his disposal it's hard to see how he doesn't win this again this year so that limits the bonuses available to the GC men. Also there are riders like Greg Van Avermaet, Adam Blythe and Sonny Colbrelli who might hoover up bonus seconds also.

So lets focus on the climbers that could win this race on Green Mountain and take the tour overall. I'm including the mountain domestiques for each contender as I'm intrigued about who will make the race this year.

Astana - Leader: Vincenzo Nibali, Support: Cataldo, Fuglsang, Lutsenko

Last year's Tour de France winner arrives in Oman having done Dubai a couple of weeks ago in support of Lutsenko, he has a really paired down schedule this year and has good memories of this race having won on Green Mountain in 2012, albeit versus a much weaker field than he will find this year. He should get support on the climb from new signing Cataldo, Fuglsang and Lutsenko. He has spoken about wanting to win in Oman and Astana's money men will want a good performance from him here for several reasons; 1) Astana are rumoured to be courting new middle east sponsors and they haven't shone yet in Dubai or Qatar, 2) They need to show off their TDF champion in Nibali, he isn't doing a particularly busy schedule and they pay him a fair whack, pressure will surely have been applied for a good performance here.

BMC - Leader: Tejay Van Garderen, Support: Velits, Caruso, De Marchi, Hermans

2nd place man from last year TJ returns to Oman, the climb of Green Mountain suits him as it's relatively constant and not constantly changing percentages, watch last years video of the stage, he TT's up behind Froome really impressively. Van Garderen is a really good rider who has the ability to contend in a grand tour, he does need to take a step up and start actually winning at the highest level more regularly. He has really strong support with 4 good climbers to cover early attacks and shelter him to the higher reaches of the climb.

Tinkoff-Saxo - Leader: Rafal Majka, Support: Rogers, Beltran

Majka is a weird one. He seems to blow really hot and cold, for a couple of weeks last year he was probably the best climber out there, the last week of the tour de france he got two wins and a third on summit finishes and then won the Tour of Poland a couple of weeks later. This after complaining about starting the race as he was tired from the Giro (which was his target race) where he finished 6th overall. If he has that late tour form then he will be really hard to beat. The team is a bit split with support for Sagan and a couple of guys for Majka in Rogers and Beltran so he could well be isolated early on up Green Mountain. Tinkoff are making bullish noises about Rafal's form and he certainly has the pedigree to be a strong contender even if it is his first race of the year.

Katusha - Leader: Joaquim Rodriguez, Support: Moreno

Jrod likes this race and in particular likes Green Mountain, he has won up here before and finished 2nd and 7th in other years. Like Nibali he rode Dubai but did not do a lot, it's pretty hard to read his form and Katusha have got more riders in support of Kristoff for the sprints than for Jrod, who can rely, as ever, on Dani Moreno. Actually Dani might have a shot here if the stage up Green Mountain gets defensive and is ridden at a slower pace as he showed OK form in Argentina a few weeks ago.

Movistar - Leader: Alejandro Valverde, Support: Amador

Valverde comes into this race with his usual very good form, he seems to never have races where he isn't challenging for the win, and I'd expect this to be no different. His Movistar squad looks really week and I'm expecting him to be isolated up Green Mountain, despite his form this year like all the other riders here a decent mountain has yet to be tackled, but he can not be discounted and will be one of the favourites.

FDJ - Leader: Thibaut Pinot, Support: Jeannesson, Morabito

An interesting year awaits Thibaut Pinot as a lot more expectation is at his door after a strong Tour de France last year, he showed a positive sign of his condition with a solid time trial in Etoile de Besseges last week where he got 10th in a discipline which is not his strength, although he is rapidly improving in TTs. The arrival of Morabito is a good signing and will help position Pinot to be in the right place at the right times. 

SKY - Leader: Wout Poels/Leopold Konig, Support: Lopez, Pate, Diegnan, Earle

This should be the first time Poels get to lead at Sky and possibly his only chance all year as he's tracking Froome's schedule following this. The motivations here are obvious, Sky don't really give riders many opportunities to shine outside of the top guys and Poels should be in shape to take advantage. As Konig is lining up for Sky as well I'm assuming they will be joint leading the team, Konig looked good in Mallorca and for me is probably better than Poels. What interests me here is that this should be an attacking Sky, if they do a standard Sky train up the lower reaches of Green Mountain I won't be surprised, just disappointed. They do not need to and I'm not sure they have the support personnel here to pull that off. 

MTN-Qhubeka - Leader: Jacques Janse van Rensburg/Louis Meintjes

I'm including the MTN guys in their own section as they come in with interesting comments form. The African championship races happen in Feb and JJvR arrives as the new SA champ, and stating that this race is one of his targets for the year. He isn't in the league of some of the other riders mentioned above but if he is at his peak he could do well. Meintjes is a future superstar climber, and whilst still young is already starting to rack up good performances, he arrives as the African continental champion which he won last week and he will be looking to take another leap forward this year.

A few other teams come in with good climbers but for whom this maybe too early in their schedule; Arredondo (Trek), Frank (IAM), Barguil (Giant-Alpecin), Costa (Lampre), these riders could contend if they have form but it's there first racing of the year and they are all a bit cautious on their form levels.

As Sky come into this race without Froome or Porte it will be interesting how they approach the race. Movistar and Katusha do not have the personnel to control. I think the race will be made by Tinkoff-Saxo and BMC. It will be upto every team's leader to drop Valverde to win this race as he should win any "sprint" at the top of Green Mountain. Dropping Valverde is not an easy thing to do, he is seemingly always in form, however he doesn't have a lot of support from his squad here and he chose not to take the start of the last stage in Qatar citing health issues which are a concern. 

Looking at the odds I think Valverde is a bit short at 2/1, and Nibali is theoretically the best climber here and he's also a savage descender which should help in the stage to the Ministry. Therefore I'm happy to go 1.5pt at 9/2 for him to take out the GC.

Nothing else really appeals at the prices

For stage 1 I have backed Nacer Bouhanni at 11/1 for 1pt win (currently 7's but still backable). He showed signs of form in that last Qatar stage, Bouhanni in form wins this stage.

Tour of Qatar

The second of the trio of Middle East races is the Tour of Qatar. No punchy climbs here, instead 5 flat stages with a short TT. The big deal here is the wind, Qatar's exposed peninsular means the Tour is designed to take full advantage of any wind it can, the expected echelons could completely determine this race.

However there are 10, 6, 4 seconds available at the finish of each of the flat stages so the sprinters have a lot of bonus seconds available if they can control the stages and then try and hang on against the TT specialists.

The most important aspect here is the wind, and as ever Qatar will not disappoint with some really windy days forecast, directionally it doesn't look ideal for echelons versus the route of the stages but I think it is likely that we get a stage determined by echelons, or at least reduced bunch finishes of say 50 riders with the rest cut off by echelons.

The TT is 10.9 km and that should give the TT specialists 20-30 seconds over sprinters who can TT quite well like Marcel Kittel and Arnaud Demare.

There is a really stellar line up of riders here and some interesting team selections, some teams have very little sprint talent but are loaded with Classics specialists who will be going full tilt to try and break the stages up and eliminate sprinters. There are plenty of direction changes in these stages and riders will have to be really alert to make sure they are in position whenever echelon racing could happen, this makes for nervous racing and a hard fast week.

The sprint teams are as follows;

Sprint focussed; Giant-Alpecin (Kittel), Cofidis (Bouhanni), Bora (Bennett), MTN (Bos), Katusha (Kristoff), FDJ (Demare)

The problem Giant are going to have is who works with them to control the race for sprints, I suspect Cofidis and Katusha will but I don't think they will have enough firepower to not suffer via an untimely echelon at some point in the 4 stages which could be affected (the last stage should be more sheltered from the wind).

As going against these teams are some real classics powerhouses, teams who will suddenly hit the front in concert in the middle of a stage when there is some crosswind with a surge of power. One rider mid pack loses the wheel infront and a gap of 1 bike length becomes 20 bike lengths and then 30 seconds worth and the bunch is split.

Teams who will attempt this include; Astana, BMC, Etixx - Quickstep, Orica, Sky, Tinkoff, and Trek.
These teams have an array of brilliant riders who I think should break this race at some point in those stages. Therefore I will be restricting my GC picks to riders within these strong teams who have more chance of being the right side of an echelon.

The other factors in GC picks is it is really useful to have some sprint speed to try and get some bonus seconds at the finish and mid race, and also be able to do a good TT performance.

Contenders for GC then in my mind are as follows;

Astana - Westra, Boom
BMC - Gilbert, GVA (not the best of friends these two, will be interesting who leads)
Etixx-Quickstep - Vandenbergh, Van Keirsbulck, Terpstra, Boonen
FDJ - Demare
IAM - Haussler
Orica - Lancaster, Howard
Katusha - Kristoff
Sky - Wiggins, Stannard
Tinkoff - Sagan, Breschel, Bodnar
Trek - Cancellara, Steegmans

I would include EBH in this list, but MTN's team looks really weak apart from for sprint finishes when they have Bos, Sbaragli and EBH. They could detract from each other and EBH's GC chances by going with Bos in the sprints.

I'm not going to go through each candidate as any of the above could win this race in my mind.

My number one candidate is Fabian Cancellara, now each year Fabian doesn't really bother too much with this race and that is the only reason he is not a shorter price. However this year he has been making noises about wanting to win early in the season and more often, he got involved in a sprint in Mallorca when normally he would not risk a sprint for fear of a silly crash. I think this could indicate he will be in Qatar to win, Trek bring a strong team and Cancellara should be one of the fastest in the time trial. He also has a strong sprint at the end of hard stages and it would not be a surprise to see him pick up bonus seconds with podium placings or mid stage. At 19/1 with Ladbrokes I think I'll throw 1.5pt on him to win here.



Stage 1 (as tweeted earlier)

Looks like a headwind or cross headwind all day which makes a sprint more likely. Cross wind in the final 10k or so but that should be when the various sprint trains are fighting hard for position so I think it will be a sprint.

Kittel 2pts win at 15/8

Sam Bennett to bt Heinrich Haussler 1pt 5/4 PP
Arnaud Demare to bt Kristoff 1pt 5/6 365

A couple of one day races...

Quick blog for GP Marseilles and the Cadel Ocean Race which the bookies have obliged and priced up.

As ever in these early season races it is hard to know who is in shape and who is not. But there is more of a tell for the Cadel Evans Great Ocean Road Race down under. The inaugural edition marks the retirement of Cadel Evans and he part designed the course, it takes in aspects of the Worlds RR course from a few years ago when a small bunch of hardened sprinters fought out the win with mighty Thor Hushovd taking the rainbow stripes.

The course is neither as long or as hard as that route though so I think the most likely result is another reduced sprint. One concern for this scenario is BMC with Cadel who don't have a sprinter really so they will be attacking all over the place, but there are enough teams with an interest in a sprint to control the race if they want to. Forecasts for the race also suggest that there's going to be hefty south westerly wind which might break things up a bit and I would want to back a rider from a strong squad as BMC are likely to put the hammer down whenever there is a chance to break the race up.

The sprint options are Caleb Ewan, Sam Spokes, Tyler Farrar or Matt Goss for MTN, Heinrich Haussler, Eugenio Alafaci, Mark Renshaw or Gianni Meersman for Etixx.

Caleb Ewan is the form rider out of these options, OK he lost to Haussler in the Aussie Road Race but I'm still not convinced by him, he always seems to have an excuse. So I've had 1pt on Caleb to win at 4/1 (Now 7/2 at PP, BV). Ewan is a lot more than a pure sprinter and I have no doubts that he can cope with the course and by all accounts he has stronger form now than a couple of weeks ago when he looked frankly frighteningly good.

I have my eye on a couple of other riders but not at the prices available, hopefully other bookies will price up later in the day and I'll put another pick up.



Marseilles is a european rider free for all, it could be a solo winner, could be a reduced sprint, could be a full sprint. It looks like headwind wind conditions should favour the bunch sprint scenario so I'm going to go with a rider I think could have a big year. Roy Jans of Wanty, last year he came out of the starting blocks for year hard and if he survives the climbs, which I think is touch and go but if the race goes the way I think it might he will, he is one of, if not the fastest rider here. 10/1 at BV is too tempting so I'm having 0.8pt WIN. The 8/1 at PP is fine too.


SUMMARY

Cadel Ocean Race - 1pt Caleb Ewan 7/2 WIN, BV/PP


Marseilles - 0.8pt Roy Jans 10/1 WIN, BV (or 8/1 at PP)

Tour Down Under 2015

The now traditional kick off to the World Tour in Australia is an interesting and balanced event with a mix of stages. This race is a big opportunity for riders who can't do the big mountains to make a mark at the highest level and certain riders will be primed to do just that. However the favourites for the race will be two of the big hitters from Australian cycling, Richie Porte and Cadel Evans, it would be a trio but last years winner (who beat Cadel by 1 second) Simon Gerrans is still nursing his broken collarbone.

The GC in this race is shaped by two things, bonus seconds and willunga hill.

Stage 1 is a sprint.

Stage 2 is a harder sprint into Stirling with a mix of GC riders and stage hunters.

Stage 3 is intriguing and should be similar to Stirling.

Stage 4 is at a glance another hard sprint, could be a break also.

Stage 5 is Willunga Hill

Stage 6 is an interesting looking crit.

To a lot of people this race could basically be a question of can Porte take enough time out of Evans on Willunga Hill to make up for the bonus seconds that wily Evans with his pretty decent sprint is likely to snaffle up in stages 2/3. Last year Porte took 14 seconds out of Evans on this hill, this year Porte has already shown he is in brilliant condition beating a world class time triallist in Rohan Dennis in the Aussie Nats TT, there is no way he does this unless he is in form. Evans' shape is a complete unknown really, I suspect he may not even podium in this race, he is a year older and I think Porte can and will beat him. However I think Richie might be a touch short at 7/4 to back pre race.

So is there anyone else in the field who can contend? Yes there's plenty, but they will have to be at the top of their game to beat Tasmania's Porte. They need to have the snap required for a short sharp climb like Willunga and a decent sprint to try and get bonus seconds here and there.

In my mind the contenders who could challenge are;

Michael Rogers, Domenico Pozzovivo, Eros Capecchi, Tiago Machado, LL Sanchez, Maxime Bouet, Alex Howes, Nathan Haas, Kristijan Durasek.

Out of these options I like Durasek's chances as a rank outsider, he comes here as Lampre's GC rider and although it's a big step for him, the little bit of extra climbing in this years race will suit and I just think at the odds (advised on twitter at 125/1) are good. Outside of Porte and Evans the field isn't particularly impressive and I think with a fair wind Durasek has a shot.

0.2pts ew at 125/1 Durasek for GC.

Aussie RR 2015

Short blog here as I wasn't going to bother but as it's my first bets of the year I thought I should!

The Aussie Road Race is the prize for Australian cyclists as they get to wear the champions jersey all year long and as they go the Australian jersey is pretty decent.

Gerrans taking out Liege Bastogne Liege last year in his Aussie champs jersey.

The route of the race stays consistent each year with 18 laps around Buninyong with the below profile;

This is where Buninyong is in the expanse of Aussieland.

The profile may not look too hard but going up that climb 18 times is hard and due to the dynamics of the australian racing it's not an easy race to call.

Basically there are some Australian teams which have a lot of riders in the race who are responsible for controlling the race. These teams are Drapac (12 riders) and Orica Greenedge. A rider from Orica has won this race for the last few years and it is very important for them to take the Aussie jersey around all the big races through the year. However as most of you will know they are without their trump card Simon Gerrans as he fell off his mountain bike a month ago and broke his collarbone. Without this unfortunate incident Orica would be all about setting it up for Gerrans and he would have gone off evens or shorter to win. Without Gerrans Orica will look towards two riders for the final lap carnage in Cam Meyer and Simon Clarke. However if they get someone in a break, say Durbridge or Howson then they will not chase and its very likely Drapac will get someone into every break so they won't chase either. This will leave it to team BMC who have the retiring Australian legend Cadel Evans going for glory in one of his final races, they have two riders to help him; Campbell Flakemore and Rohan Dennis. Two very big engines but it might be hard for them to control a big break.

So there are three options; 

 - a final lap attack fest up the climb between Clarke, Meyer, Porte, Evans, Rogers and possibly Adam Hansen.

- a break stays away with some Drapac riders, some Orica riders and a scattering of other riders.

- a fast man mini sprint between say Von Hoff, Ewan, and van der Ploeg.

The most likely of these is probably a fight out between the big names, so lets look at that option first. I like Clarke here for a couple of reasons, long term Orica are going to try and set Clarke up for one day races like this and I think they have a lot of faith in him, Gerrans certainly does, he had a quiet year in 2014 but did a lot of work for the team. He has a good sprint, certainly faster than everyone apart from maybe Evans in that group, and he is a brilliant descender which in tricky weather conditions could be useful. I think Meyer will attack early and Dennis/Flakemore will drag him in then he works for Clarke. Then it will be Porte who will go really hard as he only wins solo. Porte's lack of sprint means I think Evans or Clarke are the most likely victors in this scenario. Who knows what shape Evans is in, although I imagine its pretty good as he's always been an absolute pro but at 4/1 he's a bit short. So it's Clarke for me in this scenario.

I'm also backing Nathan Earle as although unmentioned previously in this blog, he is a talent and a team mate of Porte's at Sky. The way Sky works is that these young riders basically get almost no opportunity to shine so he should be keen here, he should try and get into a break and get a free ride from Orica/Drapac riders, alternatively he could do a Meyer style early attack. At 100/1 he is too large a price to ignore.

From the fast man option I have gone with van der Ploeg, 4th here in 2013 he was climbing well recently and is under the radar enough to surprise. Von Hoff is a good option and always goes well but he will be so isolated it's hard to see who takes him to the line. Ewan should be in the role of domestique for the more established Orica riders. So I've taken a small bet of van der Ploeg at 150s.

Simon Clarke winning a stage, hopefully to be repeated in the small hours of Sunday!

BETS:

1pt Simon Clarke to WIN 18/1 Bet365.

0.2pts ew Nathan Earle EW 100/1 various.

0.1pts ew Neil van der Ploeg 150/1 various.

Review of 2014

Inspired by @EddyGecko's review of his badminton year, I thought I would do the same with my 2014 gambling on cycling with all the highs and lows it brings.

Now I only started actually writing a blog in late July which only gives results for the last third of the cycling road season so I will talk about a mix of the blog bets which are all on the googledocs sheet linked on the right hand side and pre blog bets, which 90% of which will be on my twitter (whether or not you want to trawl through all my tweets is debatable though...). In my experience it is imperative to record your bets so that you can have an idea of what your good at and what needs work on, or if you follow the various tipsters about, who is good and who is not.

Initially lets look at the big numbers and then drill down into detail. From late July through the blog I posted up 240 bets in various cycling markets staking 228.2 units with a p/l of +64.28 units which I was really pleased with for such a short period of time. Obviously looking at the spreadsheet you can see that this was largely derived from just a few of those 240 bets but like backing Golf, in cycling there are 200 riders a race and there will be dark periods but keeping the faith eventually paid off.

Now lets look at the full year statistics by bet type. Over the course of the season there are plenty of different bets available, especially during the Grand Tours which is why there are so many options here. I also split out TT and TTT's as for me the race against the clock is a different proposition to a normal stage race.

From the above table its pretty clear where I did well, stage win and each way picks gave me over 75% of my annual profits, which is good as its the most readily available market to bet on.

Particular highlights from the stage win bets were...

Pauline Ferrand Prevot winning the Worlds Road Race at 33/1! such a shame this is basically the only women's race all year you can bet on. I'm going to try and include videos for these as they were such happy moments!

Next up in my personal hall of famers for the year was the much maligned Ben Swift proving that he has a lot more ability than a lot of people give him credit for when he sweeped up a 300/1 (inplay about 15 mins from the end) e/w placing in Milan San Remo. I still think he had the speed to win if his positioning was better, watch him on the left hand side of the road in the sprint.

Anyway those two were my favourite bets of the year, but returning to that table one area which was really disappointing was H2H bets (backing one rider to be classified higher than the other), I put a lot of effort into these over the year for a 0.9% return. To improve on this I'm looking to try and only pick out the really wrong odds and not the more marginal picks, sounds easy but I doubt it will be. 

My best races of the year were the World Championships, Paris Nice, The Three Days of De Panne, and Milan San Remo, with the worst race being the Vuelta where I shipped 30 units, Catalunya was nearly as grim also. I tried to make a nice graph by event but ultimately could not make it intelligible!

And now for the big category that I just had to include is the one that got away. Dario Cataldo stage 14 of the Giro 33/1. Watch the sky man's legs just stop in the sprint v Battaglin, if it looks slow its because it was on cobbles half way up a mountain. This video doesn't do it justice though, Cataldo was always going to beat the Colombian Pantano and Battaglin only caught them up just before this video starts. A great stage though even if I was close to shedding a tear for my P/L graph.

Next year hopefully I can match this year and try and improve on those H2H's! I'm also working on a database which might give me some nice graphs to include on here but that will be dependent on my time commitments. I'll be blogging everything I can but do follow on twitter as that's where inplay and late additional bets will go. If I get decent results then I will want the odd small donation to the charities on here as that was the point in the first place. Have a good xmas and new year and I'll see you for whatever race the bookies put up first from down under in January.

Il Lombardia

The final blog of the year is for the race of the falling leaves, Il Lombardia, a beautiful race with a varying route which is generally set up to encourage the same kind of rider as the winner. This is a bona fide classic right up there with Milan San Remo, Paris Roubaix etc and as such is a big event and a big target for certain riders.

First up lets look at the course, RCS (the race organisers) have moved away from the traditional Muri di Sormanno climb and moved the course to finish in Bergamo.

The main change is that the bulk of the climbing has been moved towards the end of the race which despite not being massive these climbs will hurt and shred the peloton. The passo Ganda is the days main climb averaging 7% over 9km with steeper sections this will be the scene of either lone climbers making a long bid for glory or a strong team trying to drop any riders who can sprint a bit, as the following climbs are more suited to punchier riders rather than pure climbers. If Contador wants to win this race, Tinkoff need to hit this climb very hard.

The final climb in Bergamo is short, has a steep section towards the top and includes some cobbles, I would expect a small bunch to hit this climb of maybe 25-30 riders and the race will be decided here. There will be lots of attacks and a fast descent to the finish, it could be possible for a lone rider win with a gap from the top, it all depends on the co-operation in any group behind. It looks a 50-50 between a solo rider making it with a daring attack or a small select sprint.

To win this race you really need to be in form (and be able to climb) so that is a good place to start.

Valverde yet again has to be favourite for this race, he is so good at maintaining top shape all year long and he proved that last weekend in the world's where he achieved another podium spot (thankfully not a win though). He will be very difficult to drop on the climbs, it is only tactics that might prevent him from winning here, he has a really fast sprint at the end of a hard race but it is likely that he will expected to chase down attacks in the finale. His best option for me is to be the attacker like in San Sebastian, he's just too short to back at 3/1 sadly.

Next up is the new World Champion Michal Kwiatkowski, probably the most talented all round rider in the peloton, he has everything, and is clearly in superb shape. It will be really interesting to see how he goes in this race, the distractions and commitments that winning the world's brings could have taken an edge of his shape but I doubt it, the main concern is how his long climbing is for the passo Ganda, if he holds on over this climb he is a major threat.

Katusha should bring a really strong line up considering their utter domination of Milano Torino midweek where they had four riders in the top 10 including 1st and 3rd with Caruso and Moreno. This race should all be for mr Rodriguez though as he looks to defend a race he has won for the last two years, the problem he will have though is that this new course suits him a lot less than the old one, sure there is a steep climb near the finish but it isn't as long and it will be harder for him to get the same kind of gaps to win as he isn't going to win a sprint finish against Valverde.

There is a sub plot in this race which is the battle to be crowned number one WT rider which for the uninitiated it basically world rankings decided on placings in WT races through the season, it is really close between Contador and Valverde which just this race and a race in China to go. This may be the reason Contador arrives here with a very strong line up which almost looks like a squad for a Grand Tour, if they do not set a searing pace on Ganda then Contador is not in his top shape. He has only done one race since the Vuelta which was Milano Torino on Wednesday which he finished 6th, it sounds like Katusha managed to isolate him and then fired many attacks off the front and he couldn't or wouldn't chase them all down. I expect Contador to top six but not to win as he would have to do that solo from a long way out which is a hard ask, he'll play it safe and bank as many points as possible, therefore I can't back him.

BMC bring Sammy Sanchez to this race, a masterful descender if he has the legs any gap off the top of the final climb could be decisive. He had a really good Vuelta finishing in 6th on the GC and he has previous in this race, I will look towards Sammy if the odds are right.

Another rider to consider is Tony Gallopin, this is a bit left field as he has no where near the climbing abilities of the riders already mentioned but he can hang on and is growing all the time as a classics rider. He is another with a really sharp sprint when required, the race will need to be not too hard on Ganda but he has an outside chance.

Dan Martin is worth considering again here as he's done well here before with a second place and he can handle long races whilst the climbs should not be an issue. He just needs to stay on his bike! I will chance my arm with him one more time in this race and hopefully he can remain crash free and get a good result.

It would be rude not to mention last years World Champion Rui Costa, this course should suit him also but he wasn't particularly noticeable last Sunday and I'm not convinced he is at the top of his form. The same thing can be said for riders like Romain Bardet and Thibaut Pinot.

Finally I want to mention Warren Barguil, he had a great attacking Vuelta taking home 8th in the GC and has only ridden one race since which was the Worlds last sunday where he finished in the top 20, he is coming into this under the radar and may well shine. The climbs shouldn't be a problem and he has a handy sprint also, if the odds are right he will be on my slip.

And last but not least a mention for Niemec as @8aldwin (v knowledgeable on Polish riders) tweeted that he's in shape and likes this race he has to be worth a super outside shot at 200/1.

I've gone for these picks mainly because I see this ending with a small group with attacks flying everywhere and no one team having enough strength to chase everything and there could be a lot of Valverde wheel sucking with cat and mouse tactics from everyone's favourite trio of Spaniards. Therefore I want riders who might just be given a 100m gap which never gets brought in again, it could well end up with a Valverde/Jrod face off but the odds are far too short to back them.


0.5pts ew Dan Martin 20/1 pp
0.4pts ew Warren Barguil 66/1 pp
0.4pts ew Sammy Sanchez 33/1 pp
0.1pt ew Przemyslaw Niemec 200/1 pp



1pt Hesjedal v zaugg, and Zardini v cataldo double 6/4 888sport.


I also have small long odds bets on Rosa and Zardini (and additionals amounts on Barguil and Niemec) on Betfair as the odds were massive and its my last proper betting race of the year!

Vuelta stage 14

This is the first really big test for the climbers. It's also quite long for a Vuelta stage at 200km, with what looks to be close to 65km of climbing.

The final few kilometers of the stage are really really steep, and if you think the break will make it you can only look at really high calibre climbers.

So what options do the teams have.

Lampre: Niemec, Serpa

AG2R: zilch

Astana: Landa (but may have to work for Aru)

Belkin: Ten Dam

BMC: Nerz (not convinced he is good enough, Evans seems cooked).

Caja Rural: Expect someone like Txurruka to get into the break but not good enough either.

Cannondale: Bennett

Cofidis: Bagot, Coppel - but I wouldn't be happy with my money on them even if they did make the break

Europcar: zilch

FDJ: zilch

Garmin: Hesjedal, Cardoso, Talansky

Giant: zilch, all to support Barguil

IAM: zilch (Tschopp hopefully for our KOM bet but I don't think he is strong enough to win).

Katusha: all for Jrod

Lotto: Monfort (although he has looked v ropey in last few stages).

Movistar: I wouldn't be surprised if they put more than one from Herrada, Izaguirre, Amador, Moreno into the break to force Tinkoff to work all day.

MTN-Quebeka: Kudus, Meintjes, both good options.

OPQS: Poels

Orica: Yates (may be on Chaves duty though).

Sky: Kennaugh, Cataldo, Kiri, Nieve

Trek: Arredondo, Zubeldia

I think we look towards a break today as there is a lot of work to be done between 140km and 190km where I can't see who drives it with enough confidence to bring a break back, Tinkoff won't as they risk exposing Bertie to bonus seconds, Movistar/Katusha should fear Valverde/Jrod being dropped by Bertie on the last climb and won't want to use men up.

My break punts will be the following, Meintjes (100/1 PP), Kudus (200/1 Various), Poels (250/1 Laddies), Kennaugh (250/1 BV). 0.2pts on each to win.

If it looks like its a GC finish then I will go again inplay.

H2H's

Ten Dam v txurruka 2.73 1pt Pinnacle - Weird one this, Ten Dam is just as likely to go in a break as txurruka but is a better climber so why is he the massive outsider? I don't get it so its a bet for me.

Gesink v navarro 2.46 1pt Pinnacle - I presume this H2H came up as Navarro was 9th and Gesink 10th in stage 11. Gesink put in an impressive attack that day and I think he's in better shape than Navarro for a test like this.

Martin v sanchez 2.00 1pt Pinnacle - see above, exactly the same reasoning.

Pardilla v anacona 8/11 0.75pt Ladbrokes - I suspect anacona could fade pretty rapidly in the coming days.

Chaves v nieve 1.95 0.75pt Pinnacle - Chaves is for GC and nieve is for Froome, Chaves is fading but this is a good climb for him so I favour him here.

Vuelta stage 6

So got stage 5 totally wrong but there you go, it happens. This stage is one that probably 20 riders have earmarked in their road books.

The final climb is what is important here, 4.5km at a constant 10% on a pretty straight road. This will be very rapid and I can't see beyond the quality operators in the field.

I have a list of 10-12 riders who can win this. 

I'm expecting Froome to test his rivals with a strong push and anyone who wants to win this will need to be able to follow him. I think enough riders will be fresh enough to be able to follow Froome and can see Froome getting outsprinted at the finish, although if Froome's odds are big enough I will be on.

A few riders have explicitly named this stage as a target including Yates, Arredondo and Dan Martin. Yates has had a super year and has a great punchy finish but this is exalted company and a win could be hard but has a shot at a podium if its raced the right way. Arredondo doesn't seem to be in good enough shape. Dan Martin ticks all the boxes really and is one of my favourites for the stages.

Katusha bring a good double threat with Moreno and Jrod, from the two I would prefer Jrod.

Quintana is obviously a great climber but this is too short a climb for me to back him, I doubt he will lose any time though. Valverde has a brilliant uphill sprint which is why he's so good in Fleche Wallone.

Other riders I have considered include Kelderman, Contador, D Caruso, Evans, Chaves, Uran.

0.5pts Martin WIN 7/1 Betvictor

0.3pts ew Yates 33/1 Betvictor

I may come back

Vuelta stage 4

I was thinking to myself before this tour which out of the Giro/Vuelta has the really good road book? Turns out its the Giro, the Vuelta roadbook contains almost no useful information beyond the basics.

Here is today's profile.

The cat 2 that peaks with 26km to go is about 8km at 5% with some higher gradients but no km averages more than 6%, I think there will be some attacks over this but I suspect FDJ and particularly Giant will be very keen to race for a sprint as it's too far from the finish for a GC man to attack on the climb so I don't see why a GC team would want to waste too much energy to ramp up the pace. Therefore Orica, FDJ and Giant to share duties controlling the breakaway.

So presuming we get a sprint the finish is a very slight 1% drag with a few sharp corners in the last 5km.

It is very very hard to see past Bouhanni again today. 1.5pts 2/1 Various

Debus for the podium! 0.5pts ew 40/1 Various

Vuelta stage 3.

Onto Vuelta stage 3, a couple of climbs in the middle to get rid of bouhanni and then a punchy finish.

According to cyclingstage.com (top site) the final little rise is 1500m at 4.5% with 300m slightly downhill from there which looks about right. I think we need to look towards the hard sprinters here and I do not think this is a GC stage.

Therefore the stage winner books look quite attractive and the three favourites should be Degs, Matthews and Sagan. I'm backing Matthews as he's in good shape and I'm very confident he will be in the mix, Degenkolb is rapid but I'm worried he could be dropped and never get back on and who knows whether Sagan will be bothered to try.

Small ew bets on Boonen and Stuyven at 150s as well, Boonen can't win on a flat finish versus this field but after a punchy hill he could, Stuyven got fourth in stage 2 on the flat but is more dangerous in stages with hills.


1pt ew Matthews 9/1 PP
0.2pt ew Boonen 150/1 PP
0.2pts ew Stuyven 150/1 PP

Vuelta stage 1 TTT

The first stage of the Vuelta is a short TTT. Its flat and technical and will favour teams with powerhouse riders and good technical skills.

I have two picks at the moment.

2pts Trek win at 9/4, Betvictor

Trek have a lineup with 4 elite TT riders in it, and specifically TT riders who are good over a short distance, Cancellara, Vandewalle, Sergent, Jungels and Popovych is formidable and for me the strongest unit here.


0.25pts ew Giant 300/1 Coral

Giant are rightly outsiders as they do not have a good track record in TTT's but this kind of course could almost be a long leadout for a sprint which Giant are king at. The explosivity required out of the numerous corners on the circuit could favour a sprint heavy team like Giant, I sort of get the sense that over the long term Giant would like to be competitive in TTT's and they have been working on it. Arndt did a good TT recently and Ludviggson, Haga and Craddock are very solid also. Time differences over a short distance will be very small and Giant have a chance.



H2H's

1.5pts Lotto v Tinkoff 11/10 Various.- I think Lotto have a solid team for this and should go top 6. I fear for Tinkoff in this, late team changes, contador coming back from a broken leg, could well be a no risk approach for them.


H2H Accumulator

0.4pts Lotto, Belkin, Katusha, Cofidis, OPQS to win their PP head to heads. 29/1.

Vuelta antepost

For those of you who have read my tweets before a GT before it won't surprise you that I usually like to get pretty involved in the range of markets that GT's allows compared to normal races. This blog post is to record those bets.

GC

Horner Podium finish 9/1 1.5pts BetVictor - Horner is coming out of Utah in decent form and his shape has to be about the same as last year when he proved he can slay if not a class field than an in form Nibali. 9/1 to podium is IMO really good value. HORNER DNS THIS WILL BE REFUNDED.



KOM

Looking at the route I'm not totally convinced a GC rider will win this so I'm going to take two small punts on riders at big odds. 0.2pts ew on both.

Meintjes - 100/1, PP, B365, a super talent riding in a team that will look for a prize like this when probably a GC top 10 is out of range for their GC man Pardilla. Meintjes said he's going to target a couple of stages and has the climbing ability to go well in the KOM.

Tschopp - 500/1, PP, this is a long shot, IAM like MTN-Quebeka best hopes of making an impact in the Vuelta are through stage wins or a side prize like KOM. Tschopp is a good but not stellar climber but could have the legs and consistency to get through the tour picking up points.



POINTS

For me the GC is hard to call between Quintana and Froome and I can see why Quintana leads the points classification markets as he will be favourite in every summit finish and there is no bias towards sprinters in the Vuelta for points. However Froome is proven to be as good a climber as Quintana so I don't expect much between Quintana and Froome in terms of placings in the summit finishes.

However as far as I can see (without any kind of public roadbook online anywhere), the TT's will also count towards the points classification. Now here I expect Froome to be right up there with the elite TT riders in the race whereas Quintana although much improved is not at that level.

Therefore I'm having 2pts win of Froome for Points classification at 8/1 (Ladbrokes).


I also think there is enough points available for a hard sprinter to get involved on the podium as the sprint field is not strong minus Bouhanni who will be favourite for the pure sprint stages. The rider I want for this ew is Michael Matthews, he's having a great season, has every chance to come second behind Bouhanni in the pure sprints and should compete on two or three harder stages when Bouhanni, Guardini etc will be dropped. Matthews can also get a few points on the short TT if motivated.

Another thought on this is if Quintana goes out and destroys everyone on stage 9 or 11 then breaks will be much more likely to make it in the following summit days reducing GC riders points opportunities.

Matthews 0.2pts ew PP.


POINTS H2H

Debusschere v Hutarovich 1.5pts 2.3 Pinnacle - Debus is faster, has a better team, and a bit more resilient to hills than Hutarovich so hopefully will have more opportunities to get points.


TOP 10

Kangert 1pt 5/1 Skybet - Kangert is a proven three week rider scoring a couple of top 15's in support of Nibali, in this Vuelta he goes in as joint leader with Aru.

Uran 1.5pts 5/6 Skybet - Uran is a proven three week podium rider, this field looks a bit too strong for him but a top 10 should be the minimum he's hoping for.


TEAM CLASSIFICATION H2H

Double - Giant v iam, OPQS v ag2r 2pts 6/5 888 or other Kambi platforms.

Treble - Astana v lampre, Cannondale v europcar, Belkin v garmin 1pt 7/4 888

8 fold - the above 5 and MTN v orica, Movistar v katusha, FDJ v trek 0.5pt 30/1 888

Eneco Tour stage 5

A chaotic final sprint as predicted but the main contenders got through so no sprint surprises. The next stage is the first of three GC deciding days as cobbled hills are the order of the day.

In previous years this finish on the Geraardsbergen wall has been the finale of the race and was won by Stybar last year from Stannard, and Ballan from Boom in 2012.

Doubt there will be any surprises in this stage and the winner should come from the following;

Terpstra, Boom, Vanmarcke, Vanendert, Wellens, Gilbert, Quinziato, GVA, Cancellara, Marcato, Thomas, Langeveld, Keukeleire.

I like Keukeleire most here, he loves a cobble and I regularly back him on such terrain, Vanmarcke has looked super strong but got hit hard by a flying bike today so I don't think he can be backed with confidence. I would prefer Quinziato over the other two BMC riders as he's previously done well here and has looked in great shape.

Keukeleire 0.75pts ew 50/1 PP
Quinziato 0.4pts ew 50/1 PP
Dillier 0.1pts ew 500/1 PP (I had to take this because Dillier is a rider who one day will win me a lot).

H2Hs

Keukeleire v breschel 1.5pts 1.719 Pinnacle
Wellens v koren 1pt 1.793 Pinnacle
Marcato v gilbert 0.5pt 2.49 Pinnacle
Quinziato v gva 0.75pt 2.83 Pinnacle
Langeveld v de vreese 1.2pts 1.74 Pinnacle

Eneco Tour stage 4

On paper a sprint stage, but a stage which will be susceptible to the now familiar crashes and late attacks.

With a strong chance of rain all day this kind of twisty circuit is built for attacks and crash disrupted sprint trains. Therefore there is not a lot to be gained by backing anybody at a short price.

Richeze is now Lampre's designated sprinter after Modolo had to abandon and kept himself in good position two stages ago. Richeze has good speed and is more than capable of a podium here so I've taken him each way at 125/1.

I'm also going to take a small stake on Roy Jans of Wanty at 200s, Jans again is a decent sprinter whose kept good position throughout the race.

Richeze 0.25pts ew 125/1 PP

Jans 0.15pts ew 200/1 PP

I might return with H2H's if something catches the eye.

Eneco Tour stage 3

A 9.6km power TT and it's a battle of rider's who usually come second to big Tony!

Shorter TT's are much more likely to throw up surprises so I always like to take a punt on an outsider. For this stage I have gone for Ian Stannard, the out and back nature of this course kind of reminded me of the Tour of Britain TT from last year when Stannard was second behind a motivated Wiggins and ahead of Dowsett. I'm aware Stannard has had almost no racing since his injury but he looked strong trying to break up the field in RideLondon so I've taken a small stake on him for a top 3.

Looking at weather forecasts its looks like wind will be pretty consistent and that if anything the early starters have more chance of having a dry run, but again that's a bit of a lottery.

I'm really tempted by Rohan Dennis for this course, he has been so consistent all year but yet to win, we know he's in decent shape as the Commonwealths were only a couple of weeks ago and they were a big target of his. Depending on how you look at it Rohan's early start time could be a positive or a negative but I think I want to take the best TT rider of the early starters and who has a really good chance of winning anyway.

0.3pt Dennis win 16/1 Bet365

1pt Dennis Top 3 7/2 Bet365

0.2pt Top 3 Stannard 66/1 Bet365

H2H's

Terpstra v boonen 1.5pts 2.1 Pinnacle - Don't get this at all.

Dillier v van Keirsbulck 1.5pts 2.1 Pinnacle - Diller's been posting great numbers apparently, don't think he's good enough to podium v this field but hopefully can better GVK.

Boom v cancellara 0.75pts 2.4 Pinnacle - Think this will be tight, but Boom should be super motivated.

Wellens v stybar 1.5pts 2.3 Pinnacle - I think Wellens has a better TT than Stybar.

Mouris v gretsch 1pt 1.75 Pinnacle - Mouris is keen to go well here, Gretsch hasn't done a good short TT in a while.

Sergent v hepburn 1.5pt 1.75 Pinnacle - Sergent is a lot more consistent than heppy.

Mollema v vanmarcke 2pts 2.1 Pinnacle - Mollema is a better TT rider by quite a long way in my book

Acca

Quinziato, Cummings, Mollema, Dillier, Mouris 15/1 Bet365 0.5pts

**RESULTS**

TomDum beats Cancellara to the win, a mixed bag for the bets, but Mollema's abysmal showing torpedoes the acca and causes effectively a 12 unit swing against. About -1pt today.

Eneco Tour stage 2

Another twisty traffic furniture finale is waiting for the sprinters at the end of the second stage of this year's Eneco Tour. Throw in rain and another headwind into the finishing few kilometres and it could well be another messy affair.

The early books from B365 and PP have installed Guardini as favourite at an eye wateringly short 3/1. This is a huge over reaction, yes he has form but he is not faster than Greipel or Bouhanni and is just as likely to be caught up in crashes as anyone else.

Lotto got it all kinds of wrong in stage 1 but I'm expecting them to bounce back here and I'm backing Andre Greipel at a generous 4/1 for the fastest rider in the race, who won this stage last year and has probably the strongest leadout in Sieberg and Debusschere.

1.5pts Greipel at 4/1 various.

Eneco Tour stage 1

A flat stage to start with a hefty crosswind likely.

With a crosswind basically all day it's hard to imagine some of the teams won't try and break the field up a bit and eliminate some guys from GC from the get go.

Teams which are good in echelons and have the team for it here are; OPQS, Belkin, Lotto, BMC.

This could well be a really hard day of constant need to be positioned near the front to avoid the risk of being caught out by an echelon attack and wet conditions.

This means I want to avoid riders coming back from long lay off's (Bouhanni), who are suspect in the wet (Greipel) and back form or an outsider from an echelon team, but keeping stage winner bets small.

0.75pts on Guardini win at 10/1 various

0.3pts ew on Breschel 100/1 various.

H2H's

Guardini v modolo 2.13 Pinnacle 1.5pts, Guardini is coming off a double stage win and Modolo doesn't have a lot of form.

Breschel v porsev 1.75 Pinnacle 1pt, not sure Porsev will be sprinting for Katusha with Tsatevich here.

**Results**

Hugely messy sprint with crashes but my man Guardini keeps himself out of mischief and sprints for the win. A 10/1 winner and the H2H v the crashed modolo obviously wins too. The other H2H is a loss as it seems Porsev is Katusha's man this week.

Eneco Tour GC

The Eneco Tour this year looks to be a cracker with a great field and an exciting course.

First up is 2 sprint stages in a row. If the wind gets up these could also influence GC.

Then we have a 9.6km TT which will give good TT riders an advantage but I don't expect the TT to ruin any riders GC hopes too much.

Next another sprint stage and then the friday, saturday, sunday of three hilly stages with aspects of the Ardennes classics in all three.

I'll look at the stages in more detail when they come up but for GC riders we need someone who packs a punch on multiple short climbs and who can TT reasonably. But I'm placing more of an emphasis on the climbing over TT as for someone like Dumoulin to win this I would say the TT would need to be double the length but he may surprise.

Riders who I like for this; Stybar, Dillier, Terpstra, Boom, Mollema, Vanmarcke, J Vanendert, GVA, Cancellara, Thomas, Dumoulin, Navardauskas, Breschel

Boylesports have come out with a 4 place GC market for this so I'm looking towards some of the longer odds to start with;

J Vanendert 80/1 0.5pts ew Boyles - Vanendert was solid in San Sebastian and I think the course suits

Breschel 250/1 0.3pts ew Boyles - Breschel retired from Denmark early, I'm taking a punt and saying this is to focus on Eneco rather than illness as he was already out of the Denmark GC, a big price.

Vanmarcke 125/1 0.3pts ew Boyles - Vanmarcke has been great this year and I would kick myself if he placed. I'm taking four places as I think it will be really tight but if you want 3 places 200s are around.

I'm not particularly keen on any of the GC H2H's at the moment but I might return to the GC for another pick once other books price up.

RideLondon Classic

Seeming as this new "classic" passes by the end of my road I thought it would be rude not to write a preview. They have fiddled with the route this year and now the race comes in at 193km instead of 220km from last year, the climbs are relatively similar though and it should put a bit of tiredness into sprinters legs.

This is an unofficial profile "RideLondon-Surrey Classic Profile 2014" by Clive Jones which you can find more of on the 2014 wiki for this race here.

The two previous iterations of this race have ended in bunch sprints and this is the most likely scenario again even with apocalyptic weather. I'd be surprised if we get a winner from one of the smaller GB teams as there is a bit of a gulf in speed so for me these are the contenders;

Ben Swift - just endured a crash fest in Poland and in four sprint stages did not get in the top 150...
Mark Renshaw - Solid form from the TDF and commonwealths
Caleb Ewan - this guy has so much talent. gutsy ride in the commonwealths and Team Aus probably would have backed him over Renshaw had that race come to a sprint.
Elia Viviani - Just come off the TDF where he was working for Sagan but in theory one of the fastest here.
Sam Bennett - out performed expectations in debut season at NetApp and has been pretty consistent.
Michael Van Staeyen - Topsport rider who doesn't have the same top end speed as the above but is a threat.
Jonas Ahlstrand - Argos rider whose obviously irritated by lack of opportunities and is joining the Bouhanni project at Cofidis next year, hard to see how he wins this though.
Kristian Sbaragli - Major outsider but this is often a bit of a weird sprint, plus he rides for the team which carries the name of one of my blog charities.


For me its going to be Bennett or Viviani.

I'm backing Bennett at 16s 0.75pts ew at 16/1, Sbaragli 0.2pts ew at 200/1 both with Betvictor.

A break of sprinters got away and stayed away, Bennett was in in but popped and came 6th sadly. All bets down