A couple of one day races...

Quick blog for GP Marseilles and the Cadel Ocean Race which the bookies have obliged and priced up.

As ever in these early season races it is hard to know who is in shape and who is not. But there is more of a tell for the Cadel Evans Great Ocean Road Race down under. The inaugural edition marks the retirement of Cadel Evans and he part designed the course, it takes in aspects of the Worlds RR course from a few years ago when a small bunch of hardened sprinters fought out the win with mighty Thor Hushovd taking the rainbow stripes.

The course is neither as long or as hard as that route though so I think the most likely result is another reduced sprint. One concern for this scenario is BMC with Cadel who don't have a sprinter really so they will be attacking all over the place, but there are enough teams with an interest in a sprint to control the race if they want to. Forecasts for the race also suggest that there's going to be hefty south westerly wind which might break things up a bit and I would want to back a rider from a strong squad as BMC are likely to put the hammer down whenever there is a chance to break the race up.

The sprint options are Caleb Ewan, Sam Spokes, Tyler Farrar or Matt Goss for MTN, Heinrich Haussler, Eugenio Alafaci, Mark Renshaw or Gianni Meersman for Etixx.

Caleb Ewan is the form rider out of these options, OK he lost to Haussler in the Aussie Road Race but I'm still not convinced by him, he always seems to have an excuse. So I've had 1pt on Caleb to win at 4/1 (Now 7/2 at PP, BV). Ewan is a lot more than a pure sprinter and I have no doubts that he can cope with the course and by all accounts he has stronger form now than a couple of weeks ago when he looked frankly frighteningly good.

I have my eye on a couple of other riders but not at the prices available, hopefully other bookies will price up later in the day and I'll put another pick up.



Marseilles is a european rider free for all, it could be a solo winner, could be a reduced sprint, could be a full sprint. It looks like headwind wind conditions should favour the bunch sprint scenario so I'm going to go with a rider I think could have a big year. Roy Jans of Wanty, last year he came out of the starting blocks for year hard and if he survives the climbs, which I think is touch and go but if the race goes the way I think it might he will, he is one of, if not the fastest rider here. 10/1 at BV is too tempting so I'm having 0.8pt WIN. The 8/1 at PP is fine too.


SUMMARY

Cadel Ocean Race - 1pt Caleb Ewan 7/2 WIN, BV/PP


Marseilles - 0.8pt Roy Jans 10/1 WIN, BV (or 8/1 at PP)