For those of you who have read my tweets before a GT before it won't surprise you that I usually like to get pretty involved in the range of markets that GT's allows compared to normal races. This blog post is to record those bets.
GC
Horner Podium finish 9/1 1.5pts BetVictor - Horner is coming out of Utah in decent form and his shape has to be about the same as last year when he proved he can slay if not a class field than an in form Nibali. 9/1 to podium is IMO really good value. HORNER DNS THIS WILL BE REFUNDED.
KOM
Looking at the route I'm not totally convinced a GC rider will win this so I'm going to take two small punts on riders at big odds. 0.2pts ew on both.
Meintjes - 100/1, PP, B365, a super talent riding in a team that will look for a prize like this when probably a GC top 10 is out of range for their GC man Pardilla. Meintjes said he's going to target a couple of stages and has the climbing ability to go well in the KOM.
Tschopp - 500/1, PP, this is a long shot, IAM like MTN-Quebeka best hopes of making an impact in the Vuelta are through stage wins or a side prize like KOM. Tschopp is a good but not stellar climber but could have the legs and consistency to get through the tour picking up points.
POINTS
For me the GC is hard to call between Quintana and Froome and I can see why Quintana leads the points classification markets as he will be favourite in every summit finish and there is no bias towards sprinters in the Vuelta for points. However Froome is proven to be as good a climber as Quintana so I don't expect much between Quintana and Froome in terms of placings in the summit finishes.
However as far as I can see (without any kind of public roadbook online anywhere), the TT's will also count towards the points classification. Now here I expect Froome to be right up there with the elite TT riders in the race whereas Quintana although much improved is not at that level.
Therefore I'm having 2pts win of Froome for Points classification at 8/1 (Ladbrokes).
I also think there is enough points available for a hard sprinter to get involved on the podium as the sprint field is not strong minus Bouhanni who will be favourite for the pure sprint stages. The rider I want for this ew is Michael Matthews, he's having a great season, has every chance to come second behind Bouhanni in the pure sprints and should compete on two or three harder stages when Bouhanni, Guardini etc will be dropped. Matthews can also get a few points on the short TT if motivated.
Another thought on this is if Quintana goes out and destroys everyone on stage 9 or 11 then breaks will be much more likely to make it in the following summit days reducing GC riders points opportunities.
Matthews 0.2pts ew PP.
POINTS H2H
Debusschere v Hutarovich 1.5pts 2.3 Pinnacle - Debus is faster, has a better team, and a bit more resilient to hills than Hutarovich so hopefully will have more opportunities to get points.
TOP 10
Kangert 1pt 5/1 Skybet - Kangert is a proven three week rider scoring a couple of top 15's in support of Nibali, in this Vuelta he goes in as joint leader with Aru.
Uran 1.5pts 5/6 Skybet - Uran is a proven three week podium rider, this field looks a bit too strong for him but a top 10 should be the minimum he's hoping for.
TEAM CLASSIFICATION H2H
Double - Giant v iam, OPQS v ag2r 2pts 6/5 888 or other Kambi platforms.
Treble - Astana v lampre, Cannondale v europcar, Belkin v garmin 1pt 7/4 888
8 fold - the above 5 and MTN v orica, Movistar v katusha, FDJ v trek 0.5pt 30/1 888
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