Tuesday, 12 August 2014

Eneco Tour stage 3

A 9.6km power TT and it's a battle of rider's who usually come second to big Tony!



Shorter TT's are much more likely to throw up surprises so I always like to take a punt on an outsider. For this stage I have gone for Ian Stannard, the out and back nature of this course kind of reminded me of the Tour of Britain TT from last year when Stannard was second behind a motivated Wiggins and ahead of Dowsett. I'm aware Stannard has had almost no racing since his injury but he looked strong trying to break up the field in RideLondon so I've taken a small stake on him for a top 3.

Looking at weather forecasts its looks like wind will be pretty consistent and that if anything the early starters have more chance of having a dry run, but again that's a bit of a lottery.

I'm really tempted by Rohan Dennis for this course, he has been so consistent all year but yet to win, we know he's in decent shape as the Commonwealths were only a couple of weeks ago and they were a big target of his. Depending on how you look at it Rohan's early start time could be a positive or a negative but I think I want to take the best TT rider of the early starters and who has a really good chance of winning anyway.

0.3pt Dennis win 16/1 Bet365
1pt Dennis Top 3 7/2 Bet365
0.2pt Top 3 Stannard 66/1 Bet365

H2H's

Terpstra v boonen 1.5pts 2.1 Pinnacle - Don't get this at all.
Dillier v van Keirsbulck 1.5pts 2.1 Pinnacle - Diller's been posting great numbers apparently, don't think he's good enough to podium v this field but hopefully can better GVK.
Boom v cancellara 0.75pts 2.4 Pinnacle - Think this will be tight, but Boom should be super motivated.
Wellens v stybar 1.5pts 2.3 Pinnacle - I think Wellens has a better TT than Stybar.
Mouris v gretsch 1pt 1.75 Pinnacle - Mouris is keen to go well here, Gretsch hasn't done a good short TT in a while.
Sergent v hepburn 1.5pt 1.75 Pinnacle - Sergent is a lot more consistent than heppy.
Mollema v vanmarcke 2pts 2.1 Pinnacle - Mollema is a better TT rider by quite a long way in my book

Acca

Quinziato, Cummings, Mollema, Dillier, Mouris 15/1 Bet365 0.5pts


**RESULTS**

TomDum beats Cancellara to the win, a mixed bag for the bets, but Mollema's abysmal showing torpedoes the acca and causes effectively a 12 unit swing against. About -1pt today.


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