TDU Stage 2

This is the annual uphill sprint into Stirling that the TDU graces us with every year.

This is a pretty consistent profile and it gives us a mixed sprint between the fast GC men looking for bonus seconds and sprinters who can cope with a bit of a hill. Now to get an idea of the contenders we do not have to go very far, we just need to look at the results from the last few years....

What is pretty clear is you have to be proper fast to get a win here, but there is also a place for riders who are not out and out sprinters or even known as sprinters, look at the last two winners, in a flat sprint Slagter gets beat by Goss and Ulissi loses to Gerrans.

Candidates are as follows;

Gianni Meersman, JJ Lobato, Nathan Haas, Daryl Impey, Simon Geschke, TomDum, Cadel Evans, SamDum, and newly crowned Aussie champ Heinrich Haussler.

First up lets look at Nathan Haas, if I'd backed him for GC I'd be looking at that table above and thinking "erm, where is Haas?" this is one of the stages where he has to get bonus seconds on the purer climbers. Haas came 5th in the GC in this race last year yet he was 18th in the stage into Stirling. No excuse, he's not backable.

Daryl Impey is the early bookmakers favourite and for good reason, he did the leadout for Gerrans last year and left the peloton gasping whilst still getting 10th, but does he have the top speed to win this? Impey is 30 years old and has not won many races down the years, admittedly he is working for others a lot of the time. Too short a price to back. However Orica will look to devastate the peloton to set him up as they will know that he won't win a sprint v anyone really quick but he is worth considering.

Giant bring a duo of fastish punchy riders in Geschke and TomDum. Of these two I prefer TomDum, he has a very surprising sprint and the races in Canada last year showed that he can compete in hard sprints.

Cadel Evans can never be discounted and I'd quite like to see him go well, he got 3rd here last year and I wouldn't be surprised if he repeats that.

Haussler is the Aussie RR champ and is talking himself up for this stage. However I don't think I can back him on the basis of beating a tired 20 year old from a break in that race.

Yet again I like Meersman, I know he can climb at World Tour pace and he is very very fast, he has won uphill finishes like this before and won races where he's basically been the only fast rider left.

Lobato is a huge danger he's looked fast on the flat and his wins have mostly come on finishes similar to this. In the tour de wallonie last year he beat meersman and with meersman he has to be joint favourite.

Looking at how the books are currently I think TomDum is the standout bet at 50s with bet victor and I've had half a point ew.

I will return later once my train eventually gets me home!

Tom Dumoulin 0.5pts ew 50/1 (min odds I would take are 25/1).

***UPDATE***

I'm adding Lorenzo Manzin at 200/1 (back till under 100/1), he's very young but is good on these finishes and I fancy having a small long shot play at 0.1pt ew at Betvictor.

TDU Stage 1

So after the surprisingly enjoyable People's Choice criterium where we managed to get our outsider pick Wouter Wippert a nice 3rd place return it's time for the World Tour to kick off with the first stage of the Tour Down Under.

The profile is below;

This is marked down as a sprint stage but it's not a straightforward one, as you can see it's undulating and has a little berg like hill at 100km. This for me is crucial, Kittel is the bookies favourite but I would probably back him to be dropped. The finishing kilometres is a bit of an uphill drag as well which should knacker Kittel out if he's still there as well. Everyone knows that if Kittel makes it to the final flat bit of the sprint then he is like a 1/2 favourite but I think there is enough in this stage to look elsewhere and look for value elsewhere.

First up is Giacomo Nizzolo who on paper is the 2nd fastest rider here, I'm happy to ignore the People's Choice classic in terms of his performance as he was out of position all the way through, he has stated he wants to get the season off well and take a good shape into the Tour Down Under. Nizzolo is really consistent and should not have a problem with these kind of up and down stages and at 15/1 he is my outright pick for the win. 1.5pt to win.

Next up I'm going to look for a big price e/w candidate and I can see a lot of interest in two riders who showed up well in the People's choice, the two riders who followed Kittel in, Lobato and Wippert.

Lobato is definitely more suited to this kind of stage and he did a really strong sprint to basically jump out into the wind and effectively close down Kittel and leapfrog a lot of sprinters who were sat in wheels in the process. This stage will suit him and if I can get a decent price he will be my e/w pick.

Wippert is another good shout here, you may have guessed I'm a fan of the young dutchman who had some bad luck when on the cusp of a big contract when he broke his knee cap a few years ago, now riding for Drapac he won a lot of races in the lower levels last year and he can do a really good uphill sprint.

Gianni Meersman also seriously tempts as he should have no problems whatsoever with tomorrow's stage and is priced at an attractive 40/1 ew (1/5) with Bet365. He got 6th in the People's Choice which shows he has some shape and the guy is a proven winner. 0.4 pts ew on Meersman at 40/1.

****update**** I have been convinced of the merits of young bonifazio and I'm going to really commit to Kittel not making this finish and back Bonifazio ew at 40/1.

Other candidates will be riders like Haussler, Von Hoff, whoever Lotto go with out of Hendo, Vallee and De Haes, and SamDum..

Taking JJ Lobato at 10/3 to beat Kittel H2H for 0.5pts also.

Nizzolo 1.5pts win at 15/1, I'd still back him down to 8s
Meersman 0.4pts ew at 40s, back to 20s
Bonifazio 0.5pts ew at 40s, Betvictor, Ladbrokes.

JJ Lobato to beat Kittel 0.5pt at 10/3

Tour Down Under 2015

The now traditional kick off to the World Tour in Australia is an interesting and balanced event with a mix of stages. This race is a big opportunity for riders who can't do the big mountains to make a mark at the highest level and certain riders will be primed to do just that. However the favourites for the race will be two of the big hitters from Australian cycling, Richie Porte and Cadel Evans, it would be a trio but last years winner (who beat Cadel by 1 second) Simon Gerrans is still nursing his broken collarbone.

The GC in this race is shaped by two things, bonus seconds and willunga hill.

Stage 1 is a sprint.

Stage 2 is a harder sprint into Stirling with a mix of GC riders and stage hunters.

Stage 3 is intriguing and should be similar to Stirling.

Stage 4 is at a glance another hard sprint, could be a break also.

Stage 5 is Willunga Hill

Stage 6 is an interesting looking crit.

To a lot of people this race could basically be a question of can Porte take enough time out of Evans on Willunga Hill to make up for the bonus seconds that wily Evans with his pretty decent sprint is likely to snaffle up in stages 2/3. Last year Porte took 14 seconds out of Evans on this hill, this year Porte has already shown he is in brilliant condition beating a world class time triallist in Rohan Dennis in the Aussie Nats TT, there is no way he does this unless he is in form. Evans' shape is a complete unknown really, I suspect he may not even podium in this race, he is a year older and I think Porte can and will beat him. However I think Richie might be a touch short at 7/4 to back pre race.

So is there anyone else in the field who can contend? Yes there's plenty, but they will have to be at the top of their game to beat Tasmania's Porte. They need to have the snap required for a short sharp climb like Willunga and a decent sprint to try and get bonus seconds here and there.

In my mind the contenders who could challenge are;

Michael Rogers, Domenico Pozzovivo, Eros Capecchi, Tiago Machado, LL Sanchez, Maxime Bouet, Alex Howes, Nathan Haas, Kristijan Durasek.

Out of these options I like Durasek's chances as a rank outsider, he comes here as Lampre's GC rider and although it's a big step for him, the little bit of extra climbing in this years race will suit and I just think at the odds (advised on twitter at 125/1) are good. Outside of Porte and Evans the field isn't particularly impressive and I think with a fair wind Durasek has a shot.

0.2pts ew at 125/1 Durasek for GC.