Tour Down Under 2015

The now traditional kick off to the World Tour in Australia is an interesting and balanced event with a mix of stages. This race is a big opportunity for riders who can't do the big mountains to make a mark at the highest level and certain riders will be primed to do just that. However the favourites for the race will be two of the big hitters from Australian cycling, Richie Porte and Cadel Evans, it would be a trio but last years winner (who beat Cadel by 1 second) Simon Gerrans is still nursing his broken collarbone.

The GC in this race is shaped by two things, bonus seconds and willunga hill.

Stage 1 is a sprint.

Stage 2 is a harder sprint into Stirling with a mix of GC riders and stage hunters.

Stage 3 is intriguing and should be similar to Stirling.

Stage 4 is at a glance another hard sprint, could be a break also.

Stage 5 is Willunga Hill

Stage 6 is an interesting looking crit.

To a lot of people this race could basically be a question of can Porte take enough time out of Evans on Willunga Hill to make up for the bonus seconds that wily Evans with his pretty decent sprint is likely to snaffle up in stages 2/3. Last year Porte took 14 seconds out of Evans on this hill, this year Porte has already shown he is in brilliant condition beating a world class time triallist in Rohan Dennis in the Aussie Nats TT, there is no way he does this unless he is in form. Evans' shape is a complete unknown really, I suspect he may not even podium in this race, he is a year older and I think Porte can and will beat him. However I think Richie might be a touch short at 7/4 to back pre race.

So is there anyone else in the field who can contend? Yes there's plenty, but they will have to be at the top of their game to beat Tasmania's Porte. They need to have the snap required for a short sharp climb like Willunga and a decent sprint to try and get bonus seconds here and there.

In my mind the contenders who could challenge are;

Michael Rogers, Domenico Pozzovivo, Eros Capecchi, Tiago Machado, LL Sanchez, Maxime Bouet, Alex Howes, Nathan Haas, Kristijan Durasek.

Out of these options I like Durasek's chances as a rank outsider, he comes here as Lampre's GC rider and although it's a big step for him, the little bit of extra climbing in this years race will suit and I just think at the odds (advised on twitter at 125/1) are good. Outside of Porte and Evans the field isn't particularly impressive and I think with a fair wind Durasek has a shot.

0.2pts ew at 125/1 Durasek for GC.