Vuelta stage 14

This is the first really big test for the climbers. It's also quite long for a Vuelta stage at 200km, with what looks to be close to 65km of climbing.

The final few kilometers of the stage are really really steep, and if you think the break will make it you can only look at really high calibre climbers.

So what options do the teams have.

Lampre: Niemec, Serpa

AG2R: zilch

Astana: Landa (but may have to work for Aru)

Belkin: Ten Dam

BMC: Nerz (not convinced he is good enough, Evans seems cooked).

Caja Rural: Expect someone like Txurruka to get into the break but not good enough either.

Cannondale: Bennett

Cofidis: Bagot, Coppel - but I wouldn't be happy with my money on them even if they did make the break

Europcar: zilch

FDJ: zilch

Garmin: Hesjedal, Cardoso, Talansky

Giant: zilch, all to support Barguil

IAM: zilch (Tschopp hopefully for our KOM bet but I don't think he is strong enough to win).

Katusha: all for Jrod

Lotto: Monfort (although he has looked v ropey in last few stages).

Movistar: I wouldn't be surprised if they put more than one from Herrada, Izaguirre, Amador, Moreno into the break to force Tinkoff to work all day.

MTN-Quebeka: Kudus, Meintjes, both good options.

OPQS: Poels

Orica: Yates (may be on Chaves duty though).

Sky: Kennaugh, Cataldo, Kiri, Nieve

Trek: Arredondo, Zubeldia

I think we look towards a break today as there is a lot of work to be done between 140km and 190km where I can't see who drives it with enough confidence to bring a break back, Tinkoff won't as they risk exposing Bertie to bonus seconds, Movistar/Katusha should fear Valverde/Jrod being dropped by Bertie on the last climb and won't want to use men up.

My break punts will be the following, Meintjes (100/1 PP), Kudus (200/1 Various), Poels (250/1 Laddies), Kennaugh (250/1 BV). 0.2pts on each to win.

If it looks like its a GC finish then I will go again inplay.

H2H's

Ten Dam v txurruka 2.73 1pt Pinnacle - Weird one this, Ten Dam is just as likely to go in a break as txurruka but is a better climber so why is he the massive outsider? I don't get it so its a bet for me.

Gesink v navarro 2.46 1pt Pinnacle - I presume this H2H came up as Navarro was 9th and Gesink 10th in stage 11. Gesink put in an impressive attack that day and I think he's in better shape than Navarro for a test like this.

Martin v sanchez 2.00 1pt Pinnacle - see above, exactly the same reasoning.

Pardilla v anacona 8/11 0.75pt Ladbrokes - I suspect anacona could fade pretty rapidly in the coming days.

Chaves v nieve 1.95 0.75pt Pinnacle - Chaves is for GC and nieve is for Froome, Chaves is fading but this is a good climb for him so I favour him here.