Paris Nice

The race to the Sun as the riders cross France from cold Paris to the relative warmth of the riviera is a big race but this year it has lost out to Tirreno Adriatico for the superstar names of Froome, Contador, Quintana etc. However that might make this a bit more interesting as a lot of the riders who are looking to bridge that gap are riding.

The course basically breaks down to a short prologue where time gaps will be 10-20 secs between the main GC guys at best, a few sprint stages and then stage 4 is a summit finish up the 10k long steady 6-7% climb of Chaubouret. An uphill sprint in stage 5, a climby day for stage 6 with a long descent into the finish which could be an exciting days racing. Stage 7 will be a decisive final mountain ITT up Col d'Eze.

This course basically means I do not see much value in GC bets until we've seen the first few stages. There is not a lot to gain amongst the GC guys until stage 4 but a lot could be lost in that time, just need some crosswinds on the flat stages, a crash, mechanical whatever and the bet is down the drain before the meaningful points of the race. Although I have taken 0.25pt ew on Sepulveda at 300s (tweeted earlier) just because it was a massive price

So with that in mind I'm more interested in the opening prologue, utterly flat, 6.7km in length, not a lot of wind forecast and dry conditions. This kind of length TTs are really interesting, and extremely difficult to predict as the time gaps are so small. They also open up the winner picks from the normal TT specialists to other riders who can sustain high speed over shorter distances. A good example is the slightly shorter prologue from Romandie last year, also pan flat 5.57km long and you get a top ten looking like the below;

OK the top two are TT specialists but there is also two sprinters in Kittel and Nizzolo beating Tony Martin and just 9 seconds covering the top ten. I'm expecting a similar looking make up from tomorrow's prologue in Maurepas.

The course looks like the below;

My bets for this are;

Wilco Kelderman 0.5pt ew 40/1 BV (tweeted earlier)

Wilco is a very good TT rider which has been masked a little by a crap bike, this year he's got a good TT bike to play with and I think through the season he'll post some strong results (I'm on him at 300s for the prologue in the TDF as well).


Rohan Dennis 1pt WIN 10/1 various

Rohan is great at the short TTs and he might put on a bit of a show here, apparently he has been putting in some mega training post his hour record and is targeting this prologue before working for TJVG in the overall.


Giacomo Nizzolo 0.15pt ew 125/1 ew Bet365

I just have a sneaky suspicion that Nizzolo might put in a big ride to test himself, in Le Samyn he was in good shape but had a problem with his wheel and he can do a fine short TT. I had to put this on just in case he went and did well...



One H2H is with Ladbrokes...

Ion Izaguirre v taaramae 11/8 for the prologue! 3pts on this.

Izaguirre is a good TT rider, Taaramae is not particularly and has been a bit ill.

Strade Bianche 2015

It's time for Strade Bianche, a relatively new race to the calendar but one which has quickly become a classic due to its spectacular scenery and racing provided by the white gravel roads that the peloton cross over at various points in the race. These gravel sections combined with numerous hills and the final wall in Siena make this a hard race generally won by the elite puncheurs of the peloton.

Strade Bianche in the dry is picturesque and dusty, in the wet it's less fun.

The Strade Bianche parcours is up and down and over gravel all day, above is the last 20k

The route is pretty much the same as last year and the weather looks to be set fair so the best place to look for a guide to the race is last years race, which was a cracker. I remember fondly the cheer that went up on Look Mum No Hands when Kwia broke Sagan with a hard attack on the Siena wall, (not quite sure why Kwia was the crowd favourite, maybe they had money on him, I didn't). A good guide to last year's race is again Cosmo's how the race was won which I've linked below;

To win this race a rider needs the following; Power and punch up short sharp climbs and bike handling skills to deal with the up and down on the gravel, a strong team and a bit of luck will also help.

So lets look at the contenders...

AG2R - Montaguti, Betancur, Nocentini, don't think Montaguti is good enough, Betancur could be in any shape, Nocentini is getting on a bit.

Androni - Gatto, Tvetcov, I'll be interested to see how Tvetcov does in this kind of race, he has a lot of talent and certainly the engine for a race like this.

Astana - Nibali, Lutsenko, I think Lutsenko is most likely to be Astana's lead here, it's a bit early for Nibali to be in top shape still as his targets are later in the year. Lutsenko is a talent...

Bardiani - Bongiorno, Colbrelli, Battaglin, they have brought basically all their good riders to a race on home soil, they'll certainly be visible but it's difficult to see how any of the team can win this race.

BMC - Van Avermaet, Stetina, GVA comes in on the back of some OK performances and what sound like fairly flimsy doping allegations, he knows this race and is certainly a contender, he should have full support from BMC but I don't think he'll win here.

Etixx - Stybar, Uran, Terpstra, despite only Uran returning to the race from the team who had the winner last year in Kwia Etixx still have the strongest team here, just like in pretty much every classic race through the year really. Terpstra and Stybar should have no issues with the terrain as they are supreme bike handlers and they are both in great shape, Uran is a bit more unknown but if in form he could go well.

Lampre - Not a lot to get excited about here, Pozzato doesn't have much history here. Niemec is a good rider though who likes this race. I think he's likely to top 10-15.

Movistar - Valverde, Amador, a strong team to support AV who as ever will be in good form and will definitely be a contender, the best of the rest last year after missing Sagan and Kwia's tactical move. It will be surprising if Valverde does not top 5. Amador gives great support in this race and generally finishes reasonably high up.

Orica - Gerrans, Yates, Gerro is just back from injury so it would take decent odds for me to back him and Yates struggled in La Drome last weekend so I'm not sure there is much to see here for the australian team.

Southeast - Finetto, Gavazzi, the Southeast team have a couple of OK contenders here, Gavazzi has been finishing on the podium in one day races frequently and Finetto has quality. Doubtful either are worth backing though even at largish prices, the wall in Siena will be too much. Expect them to be active though to get on the TV in a home race.

Cannondale-Garmin - Moser, 2013 winner Moser had a crap year in 2014 but has shown signs of life in 2015 which means that he should be considered a contender for this race. He needs to have some good results to show that he is delivering on the promise he once showed and he obviously is decent in this race. I'm struggling to see how he wins though.

Katusha - I'm looking blankly at their team and I still do not understand their selection policy. Why is Tsatevich riding here and didn't ride in Le Samyn on Wednesday where he has 1st and 2nd in his last two rides at that race. The team is making up the numbers here. To be fair Caruso came 8th here a couple of years ago but for a well budgeted team I don't think they have great squad depth.

LottoNL-Jumbo - Vanmarcke, Martens, I'd rate Vanmarcke and Martens a bit higher for this race if the team had managed to bring more than 5 riders. That is not a lot of support so if either of these guys is to contend then they will need luck. Vanmarcke is in great shape so cannot be dismissed but I think the final wall is too punchy for him.

Sky - Kennaugh, apparently Sky are riding for Kennaugh and Puccio (no chance) here. Kennaugh is a class act with a lot to come but not in this race.

Tinkoff - Sagan, Kreuziger, king of 2nd in Strade Bianche Peter Sagan (2014, 2013) will lead Tinkoff, the race suits him perfectly and he's been in good shape all year but hasn't won a race yet. He will only get stronger though and Kreuziger should provide good support.

Trek - Cancellara, Felline, Stuyven, The classics god Cancellara has won this race twice before and is hunting for another win as he now has more focus on winning more often rather than just focussing on the Goliath classics like last year. He got a good win in a stage in Oman when amongst others he beat Sagan out of a select group and he obviously likes this race. Felline has been going well recently with a string of high finishes and Stuyven just exudes quality and is a star of the future.


Tactically I think Etixx will have numbers on the other teams but they so often find a way to get mugged (Omloop, Le Samyn) that it doesn't mean they will necessarily win despite the likelihood of them having numbers once the race breaks up. Does Stybar or Terpstra have the uphill punch to drop Sagan on the wall in Siena like Kwia did last year, I'm not so sure and Sagan will either have to be dropped or tactically outmanouvred.

I like Trek's options here, Cancellara will be super strong and loves the race, he's obviously got a good sprint on him at the moment and he could definitely win solo also. I think he'll probably have company of Felline and Stuyven as support too. In fact I think Cancellara could be the man to beat, therefore he's my main pick at 7/1, twice winner and in great shape it's 1.5pt WIN.

As I tweeted earlier I want to cover off Stuyven and I tipped him up 0.3pt ew at 250s, he's now 150s but still backable. The guy is brilliant and I think a touch underrated in the markets, at some point he will win a big race, this could be that race.

For a H2H bet I'm backing Niemec v pellizotti 6/5 for 1.5pt. Niemec has form and history at this race, Pellizotti has form but I just think Niemec is likely to beat him.

An absolute stonker of a H2H is Terpstra v cunego on the Kambi sites at 11/10. Terpstra is one of the strongest riders out there and probably a bit of value in the win market too but I'm going to cover him off here. Cunego is no longer the dope fuelled force he once was and I don't expect him to go that well here to be the underdog in this matchup is mental. I have 3pts on this across the sites (888, 32red, Unibet and there are others).

Kuurne-Bruxelles-Kuurne

After what was ultimately an entertaining Omloop (watching Yogi Stannard beast 3 Etixx riders was highly amusing), the next classic of the weekend is Kuurne-Bruxelles-Kuurne. KBK is a bit more sprinter friendly than the Omloop as the final 30k are flat and lends itself to a frantic sprinter team chase,but it can also be split to pieces on the climbs and in the winds. Last year was a prime example when a combination of strong winds and a fierce Etixx attack led to them escaping and staying away with a few other riders resulting in Boonen narrowly beating Hofland.

It will be interesting how Etixx respond to today's race where they bossed the field and still somehow did not take the win. They do not have as strong a team for the climbs and cobbles but what they do have is Mark Cavendish, and he is installed by the bookies as the race favourite, this is for good reason as he is the fastest sprinter here if it ends in a bunch sprint. So do Etixx look to split the bunch or will they be happy to work for Cav? I think a bit of both to be honest, they will be eager to drop any perceived threats for a sprint, namely Sky's Viviani and Katusha's Kristoff. The former will be easier than the second, Kristoff has been on such good form all year and did well here last year.

I think ultimately this will be a sprint of some form or another, last year the bunch would have caught the breakaway riders had there been more co-operation, I think it'll be a bunch gallop of about 50-60 riders marshalled by Katusha and Etixx. I don't think Etixx will be successful in dropping Kristoff but they may be able to get rid of a few of his leadout men.

Interestingly looking at potential leadouts for the sprint trains the best here is for Lotto and Jens Debusschere, they have Sieberg and Henderson to put him into position who are two of the absolute best in the leadout discipline. Debus is the belgian champion and is a good rider, he does not have the pure speed of Cav or Kristoff but I have a hunch he might go well in KBK.

I think the most likely result is a Cav win with Etixx gaining the revenge for today's debacle and Debus has a good shout of a podium or if the cycling gods smile upon him a win...

2.5 pt win on Cav at 7/2 with Paddypower
0.5pt ew on Debus at 25/1 with BV

I also like Farrar to beat Hutarovich as a H2H with Paddypower 2pt at Evens. Farrar is solid in this races, Hutarovich despite doing well here in previous editions has just come from an easy race in Africa, not sure what his shape is like against hard opposition.

To Understand the Omloop you must become the Omloop

It's time for cobbles. Thank god for that.

Omloop is a hard cobbled sharp hills race a bit like a mini Flanders, it's attritional, unpredictable, and if you're only going to watch one or two races a year, Saturday is definitely a good candidate to choose.

I'm not going to go over the route in excruciating detail, as others will do it better than me (cyclingquotes' preview is excellent for route analysis).

The weather is often the key in these races and at the moment it's looking cold and windy with a small chance of rain.

The race will start in earnest once it gets to about 100k to go once the short steep cobbled climbs start to cluster and then there will be an inevitable attack up the Taaienberg with 60k to go. Either Vanmarcke or Boonen will force a hard pace here and a selection will be made of riders who can keep pace with these repeated rapid attacks up the bergs of Flanders.

The forecasted windy conditions will mean that even away from the bergs the exposed farmland of Belgium means crosswinds can split the peloton as quickly as the bergs. The winner of this will be a one day race expert, confortable on the cobbles and have a decent turn of pace as it's rare for riders to solo to the win. Usually it finishes in a two or three up sprint, last year Yogi Stannard outsprinted the normally quicker Greg Van Avermaet, 2013 saw Paolini beat Vandenbergh, 2012 Vanmarcke from Boonen and Flecha.

The perhaps surprising results of those little sprints from two or three men breaks are the reason why riders are happy to work with each other even if one is usually going to be faster than the other in a sprint. Stannard knew that with the slightly uphill drag finish he could start his sprint early and there was a fair chance that GVA would never get back in front. Mind you last year was a brutal race, nicely recapped below

.

So lets look at the contenders, the first place you need to look in all the classics is Etixx, they have 8 riders, 6 of which would not surprise me if they won. That just gives them so many options and riders to attack and wear the other teams away. The Etixx team is made up as follows; Boonen, Keisse, Maes, Stybar, Terpstra, Trentin, GVK, and Vandenbergh. That is just a monstrous team and they will make the race.

The only other team which comes close to being as strong as Etixx is BMC, they line up with Burghardt, Drucker, Gilbert, Kueng, Schar, Teuns, Van Avermaet, Zabel. I like the engines they have to put GVA, Gilbert and Drucker in position, this is not a race to only have one pony and I think you have to give all three of these guys licence to attack.

Sky bring last years winner Ian Stannard supported by a mixed line up, Wiggo for some practice on cobbles and earn the right to get support for his Paris Roubaix target later in the year by working for others. Andy Fenn could go well but he's still a bit short of being top level so I guess it has to be all on Yogi for Sky which is fair enough as he did win last year.

FDJ always seem to have riders in an around the sharp end of this race and they have a couple of riders who could do well, Offredo was in the thick of it last year before crashing and Ladagnous is good too and showed some form in Haut Var last week with top 10 finishes in both stages. Demare doesn't seem to be at the top of his shape yet and it's hard to see how he wins in any scenario really.

Katusha arrive with the absolutely brilliant Kristoff, last years Milan San Remo winner who has started this year like a train, he's talking up his chances of winning cobbled monuments this year and he definitely can. He is the joint early favourite in the betting which I find remarkable to be honest. His best result here is 77th, he doesn't seem to like the race, and he has a crap team here to support him, I wouldn't back him at 10/1 let alone 5/1.

Lotto Jumbo are all about Sep Vanmarcke and for good reason. This guy is brilliant on cobbles. He showed glimpses of shape in previous days and he will be in shape, these races are the time of year when he gets to shine. He has to be amongst the favourites for this race, he's incredibly consistent and a previous winner.

IAM bring Sylvain Chavanel to the Omloop, I kind of like Sylvain's chances here as he is such a good rider and he has classics pedigree, however I don't like his odds too much.

So to my bets....

I like Jempy Drucker's chances here as the maybe unwatched member of BMC's team, he's in good condition and he had a strong classics season last year, as I tweeted yesterday there was 125s available and I took 0.5pt ew at that. He's now 66/1 which is OK but hopefully a lot are on at the former price which was available for a fair bit. Jempy has a good sprint and should have no problem with the terrain, I think he'll do a strong race.

Next up is another outsider that strangely I've heard almost no one talk up. Ladagnous is a strong classics rider with good pedigree and as previously mentioned hints of form from Haut Var. At 100/1 I'm happy to take 0.4pts each way with Boyles/Ladbrokes. Note: Boyles has an extra place available so if you can place it with them.

And finally my main pick is Zdenek Stybar, I really like both his pedigree, staying power, part of the strongest team with cards to play, I seriously doubt he will be dropped and he has a fast sprint. At 10/1 with Bet365 I am going to have 1.5pt win.

I also want a matchbet which is Boonen v kristoff at 6/5 various. I've taken 4pts of this. Kristoff sounds like he is at this and KBK for training more than anything else, he didn't look too strong on the hilly stages in the middle East and he does not have a good record in this race. Boonen will be there or thereabouts.

Ruta Del Sol Stage 5

The final stage of the Ruta Del Sol has a profile which should keep a lot of riders interested.

The peloton should be pretty knackered from two big cold mountain stages which went to Contador and Froome. This is an up and down stage without any big climbs but the relentless up and down nature will tire the riders, the finish is set just after a characteristic spanish wall, the final climb is about 1.1k at 7% average, this consists of 600m at 3% then 300m at upto 20% and then a flat final 200m.

Obviously a break could make this as Sky will have little interest in taking the stage win, all they will care about is making sure Contador does not nick a couple of seconds. However a break will need some serious firepower as I think Movistar and Giant will want to set this up for Lobato and Degenkolb, the run in to that last 1.1km will also be extremely rapid as all the teams with GC riders will be fighting for position.

The teams will need to fully back their punchy sprinters and have enough numbers to control late attacks. I can see Sky setting a harsh pace up that 300m to prevent a Bertie attack, then Movistar will shepherd Lobato up the climb as they have a really strong team to do that and then he will have the most team mates to get the win. I've backed him at 9/2 with 1pt.

I've also backed Grega Bole at 40/1 0.5pt ew at BV, he is fast enough to podium and should cope with the climb no problem, the climb is a bit like that at Hatta Dam a few weeks ago when Degenkolb won. I would back Degenkolb but I'm worried that he will be isolated and swamped as Giant have had a hard week with crashes and Geschke has been in breaks the last two days and I would of thought he'd need a fresh Geschke to keep him in place.


A couple of other small interests are Ligthart who is in great form and I'm struggling to understand why he is in three figures here. 0.25pt ew at 150s and also Silvestre at 150s for similar reasons, both Bet365

Track World Champs Guest blog

Hi All, seeming as PP/Skybet have put up odds for the track world champs I thought I would try and find a decent preview for the events. I found no such thing so put out the word on twitter, and a follower who knows his stuff re non road cycling (knows a fair bit re the road stuff too!) sent me his thoughts, he's staying anonymous but I'm going to post up his summary of each event the day before the event starts (ie the day before qualifying/finals). It's totally up to you whether you bet on these or not (the odds may well be pretty different now anyway) but I thought the summaries where interesting enough as general reading.

Men’s Team Sprint

This could be really exciting. Lots of big names and really tight margins mean that any mistakes could mean the difference between several places.

New Zealand are favourites, having won last year and having won at the Commonwealths. However, that same winning team of Mitchell/Webster/Dawkins has been turned over at other World Cup events by Germany, Australia (Jay-co) and GB.

Germany are consistently good; no matter who they have in their team and they always seem to do well. Winners in 2010, 2011, 2013 and second last year - I’m going to go for them to win in 2015.

GB have brought Scottish youngster Callum Skinner (who dominated the sprint events at the Nationals) in to the squad. Hindes, Kenny and Skinner seem to be a sound unit; they were quickest in qualification and won in Guadalajara, but couldn’t back it up in London. However, I’d say they’re stronger than they were at the Commonwealths and in with a shout at 33/1.

Women’s team sprint

Likely to be close between the Germans and the Chinese. The races are always incredibly tight, separated by 1000’s of a second. The Germans won out last year, but were trumped by the Chinese in London by 0.014. I’ll go for the Germans to win again, although having beaten Welte and Vogel in the Euros, the Russians might be worth an outside shot at 18/1.

Men’s Team Pursuit

Although the team pursuit appears on the World Cup circuit, in the men’s event at least, most of those competing aren’t the ‘A’ teams. For the World Champs, the likes of GB, Australia and Denmark get to draft in their big guns. That means form doesn’t really count for much, not that it matters much, Australia win whoever they put in!

Australia will walk it – they were easily fastest last year and this year they can count on Bobridge to boot.

Women’s team pursuit

GB haven’t lost a team pursuit in years. The 2015 Worlds don’t look like the place where they’ll lose that record.


*******

Men’s Keirin

Plenty of riders in with a shout due to the rather chaotic nature of the racing – there have been 4 different winners in 4 stops in the Worlds/World Cup in the past year.

Pervis is the current World Champ. He’s mostly been racing Keirins in Japan (if you have a spare ½ hour, this is an absolutely fascinating programme on his exploits: 

but he has made time to race a couple of the World Cups. In Cali last month he didn’t qualify out of the 1^st round after being taken out in a crash and he didn’t qualify out of the first round in London either.

The most consistent performer over the past year has been Fabian Puerta. 2^nd at last year’s Worlds, 3^rd in Guadalajara, 2^nd in London and he looked impressive winning the last round in Cali leading for much of the last 3 laps. Looks good value at 9/1, but Pervis always steps up for the Worlds.

Women’s 500m TT

This was exceptionally tight last year, with ½ second separating the top 6. Traditionally a shoot-out between Welte and Meares, I can’t see this year being that different – maybe Voinova coming through to challenge. Still, I’ll go for Welte to win.

Men’s Kilo

Another event that only turns up at major champs, so difficult to apply any sort of form. Pervis beat Eilers last year by 0.6s, with the pair of them being the only ones to go sub-1m. Pervis is the world record holder and he’s the class act in the field. Provided he’s in form, he should win.

Puerta’s propensity to go long in the Keirin and his form over the last year means that although he only got 6^th last year (1:01), he’s probably not a bad shout to go better this year. He has gone sub-1m in the past, so looks a good price at 25/1, but again, no e/w.

*******

Mens Sprint

Sprinting is really open right now; Pervis, Baugé, Glaetzer, Webster, Kenny, Botticher, Hoogland, Dmitriev and Puerta are all in with decent shouts. If odds do re-appear, I’d be looking for the value in one of those.

 

There's an element of 'stick-a-pin-in-the-sprinter', because it is so close and tactics and luck come in to it. So looking for a bit of value. Sam Webster is Commonwealth sprint champ, part of the NZ sprint team that destroyed everyone (but were relegated) a few days ago. Clearly going well, likely miffed at having given up gold in the team event and reckon he's got as good a chance as anyone. He's currently 40/1 with e/w available.

Women’s Omnium

Sarah Hammer has been World Champ for the last two years and won fairly convincingly last year, winning 3 of the 6 events. Laura Trott has finished behind her for the last two years. With Hammer’s dominance in the longer endurance events, I think it will be a repeat for 2015. Surprisingly, Hammer’s only second favourite at 5/2.

Tour of Oman

The third and final of the middle east tours visits Oman, which provides a completely different style of race than last weeks windfest in Qatar. Unlike Qatar, Oman has some hills and a mountain and it takes full use of them with an interesting route providing something for sprinters, puncheurs, and pure climbers.

The GC in Oman is going to be decided by Green Mountain, stage 4 finishes at the summit of what is definitely a hard climb.

Green mountain is 5.7km at over 10% average, this is a big test and will be won by a pure climber. Previous winners have been Gesink, Nibali, Jrod, and Froome last year. Below is highlights from last years summit finish where Froome won with a blistering attack that no one could go with.

There are stage win bonuses through all the stages in the race, the one that potentially could shape the GC a little is stage 5 to the Ministry of Housing, an exciting stage tackling some short sharp climbs towards the finish has seen small groups contest the stage win in the last few years, with Froome winning from Contador and Jrod in 2013 and Sagan winning from Uran and Nibali in 2014. Now Sagan has a stronger team at his disposal it's hard to see how he doesn't win this again this year so that limits the bonuses available to the GC men. Also there are riders like Greg Van Avermaet, Adam Blythe and Sonny Colbrelli who might hoover up bonus seconds also.

So lets focus on the climbers that could win this race on Green Mountain and take the tour overall. I'm including the mountain domestiques for each contender as I'm intrigued about who will make the race this year.

Astana - Leader: Vincenzo Nibali, Support: Cataldo, Fuglsang, Lutsenko

Last year's Tour de France winner arrives in Oman having done Dubai a couple of weeks ago in support of Lutsenko, he has a really paired down schedule this year and has good memories of this race having won on Green Mountain in 2012, albeit versus a much weaker field than he will find this year. He should get support on the climb from new signing Cataldo, Fuglsang and Lutsenko. He has spoken about wanting to win in Oman and Astana's money men will want a good performance from him here for several reasons; 1) Astana are rumoured to be courting new middle east sponsors and they haven't shone yet in Dubai or Qatar, 2) They need to show off their TDF champion in Nibali, he isn't doing a particularly busy schedule and they pay him a fair whack, pressure will surely have been applied for a good performance here.

BMC - Leader: Tejay Van Garderen, Support: Velits, Caruso, De Marchi, Hermans

2nd place man from last year TJ returns to Oman, the climb of Green Mountain suits him as it's relatively constant and not constantly changing percentages, watch last years video of the stage, he TT's up behind Froome really impressively. Van Garderen is a really good rider who has the ability to contend in a grand tour, he does need to take a step up and start actually winning at the highest level more regularly. He has really strong support with 4 good climbers to cover early attacks and shelter him to the higher reaches of the climb.

Tinkoff-Saxo - Leader: Rafal Majka, Support: Rogers, Beltran

Majka is a weird one. He seems to blow really hot and cold, for a couple of weeks last year he was probably the best climber out there, the last week of the tour de france he got two wins and a third on summit finishes and then won the Tour of Poland a couple of weeks later. This after complaining about starting the race as he was tired from the Giro (which was his target race) where he finished 6th overall. If he has that late tour form then he will be really hard to beat. The team is a bit split with support for Sagan and a couple of guys for Majka in Rogers and Beltran so he could well be isolated early on up Green Mountain. Tinkoff are making bullish noises about Rafal's form and he certainly has the pedigree to be a strong contender even if it is his first race of the year.

Katusha - Leader: Joaquim Rodriguez, Support: Moreno

Jrod likes this race and in particular likes Green Mountain, he has won up here before and finished 2nd and 7th in other years. Like Nibali he rode Dubai but did not do a lot, it's pretty hard to read his form and Katusha have got more riders in support of Kristoff for the sprints than for Jrod, who can rely, as ever, on Dani Moreno. Actually Dani might have a shot here if the stage up Green Mountain gets defensive and is ridden at a slower pace as he showed OK form in Argentina a few weeks ago.

Movistar - Leader: Alejandro Valverde, Support: Amador

Valverde comes into this race with his usual very good form, he seems to never have races where he isn't challenging for the win, and I'd expect this to be no different. His Movistar squad looks really week and I'm expecting him to be isolated up Green Mountain, despite his form this year like all the other riders here a decent mountain has yet to be tackled, but he can not be discounted and will be one of the favourites.

FDJ - Leader: Thibaut Pinot, Support: Jeannesson, Morabito

An interesting year awaits Thibaut Pinot as a lot more expectation is at his door after a strong Tour de France last year, he showed a positive sign of his condition with a solid time trial in Etoile de Besseges last week where he got 10th in a discipline which is not his strength, although he is rapidly improving in TTs. The arrival of Morabito is a good signing and will help position Pinot to be in the right place at the right times. 

SKY - Leader: Wout Poels/Leopold Konig, Support: Lopez, Pate, Diegnan, Earle

This should be the first time Poels get to lead at Sky and possibly his only chance all year as he's tracking Froome's schedule following this. The motivations here are obvious, Sky don't really give riders many opportunities to shine outside of the top guys and Poels should be in shape to take advantage. As Konig is lining up for Sky as well I'm assuming they will be joint leading the team, Konig looked good in Mallorca and for me is probably better than Poels. What interests me here is that this should be an attacking Sky, if they do a standard Sky train up the lower reaches of Green Mountain I won't be surprised, just disappointed. They do not need to and I'm not sure they have the support personnel here to pull that off. 

MTN-Qhubeka - Leader: Jacques Janse van Rensburg/Louis Meintjes

I'm including the MTN guys in their own section as they come in with interesting comments form. The African championship races happen in Feb and JJvR arrives as the new SA champ, and stating that this race is one of his targets for the year. He isn't in the league of some of the other riders mentioned above but if he is at his peak he could do well. Meintjes is a future superstar climber, and whilst still young is already starting to rack up good performances, he arrives as the African continental champion which he won last week and he will be looking to take another leap forward this year.

A few other teams come in with good climbers but for whom this maybe too early in their schedule; Arredondo (Trek), Frank (IAM), Barguil (Giant-Alpecin), Costa (Lampre), these riders could contend if they have form but it's there first racing of the year and they are all a bit cautious on their form levels.

As Sky come into this race without Froome or Porte it will be interesting how they approach the race. Movistar and Katusha do not have the personnel to control. I think the race will be made by Tinkoff-Saxo and BMC. It will be upto every team's leader to drop Valverde to win this race as he should win any "sprint" at the top of Green Mountain. Dropping Valverde is not an easy thing to do, he is seemingly always in form, however he doesn't have a lot of support from his squad here and he chose not to take the start of the last stage in Qatar citing health issues which are a concern. 

Looking at the odds I think Valverde is a bit short at 2/1, and Nibali is theoretically the best climber here and he's also a savage descender which should help in the stage to the Ministry. Therefore I'm happy to go 1.5pt at 9/2 for him to take out the GC.

Nothing else really appeals at the prices

For stage 1 I have backed Nacer Bouhanni at 11/1 for 1pt win (currently 7's but still backable). He showed signs of form in that last Qatar stage, Bouhanni in form wins this stage.