The GC in Oman is going to be decided by Green Mountain, stage 4 finishes at the summit of what is definitely a hard climb.
Green mountain is 5.7km at over 10% average, this is a big test and will be won by a pure climber. Previous winners have been Gesink, Nibali, Jrod, and Froome last year. Below is highlights from last years summit finish where Froome won with a blistering attack that no one could go with.
There are stage win bonuses through all the stages in the race, the one that potentially could shape the GC a little is stage 5 to the Ministry of Housing, an exciting stage tackling some short sharp climbs towards the finish has seen small groups contest the stage win in the last few years, with Froome winning from Contador and Jrod in 2013 and Sagan winning from Uran and Nibali in 2014. Now Sagan has a stronger team at his disposal it's hard to see how he doesn't win this again this year so that limits the bonuses available to the GC men. Also there are riders like Greg Van Avermaet, Adam Blythe and Sonny Colbrelli who might hoover up bonus seconds also.
So lets focus on the climbers that could win this race on Green Mountain and take the tour overall. I'm including the mountain domestiques for each contender as I'm intrigued about who will make the race this year.
Astana - Leader: Vincenzo Nibali, Support: Cataldo, Fuglsang, Lutsenko
Last year's Tour de France winner arrives in Oman having done Dubai a couple of weeks ago in support of Lutsenko, he has a really paired down schedule this year and has good memories of this race having won on Green Mountain in 2012, albeit versus a much weaker field than he will find this year. He should get support on the climb from new signing Cataldo, Fuglsang and Lutsenko. He has spoken about wanting to win in Oman and Astana's money men will want a good performance from him here for several reasons; 1) Astana are rumoured to be courting new middle east sponsors and they haven't shone yet in Dubai or Qatar, 2) They need to show off their TDF champion in Nibali, he isn't doing a particularly busy schedule and they pay him a fair whack, pressure will surely have been applied for a good performance here.
BMC - Leader: Tejay Van Garderen, Support: Velits, Caruso, De Marchi, Hermans
2nd place man from last year TJ returns to Oman, the climb of Green Mountain suits him as it's relatively constant and not constantly changing percentages, watch last years video of the stage, he TT's up behind Froome really impressively. Van Garderen is a really good rider who has the ability to contend in a grand tour, he does need to take a step up and start actually winning at the highest level more regularly. He has really strong support with 4 good climbers to cover early attacks and shelter him to the higher reaches of the climb.
Tinkoff-Saxo - Leader: Rafal Majka, Support: Rogers, Beltran
Majka is a weird one. He seems to blow really hot and cold, for a couple of weeks last year he was probably the best climber out there, the last week of the tour de france he got two wins and a third on summit finishes and then won the Tour of Poland a couple of weeks later. This after complaining about starting the race as he was tired from the Giro (which was his target race) where he finished 6th overall. If he has that late tour form then he will be really hard to beat. The team is a bit split with support for Sagan and a couple of guys for Majka in Rogers and Beltran so he could well be isolated early on up Green Mountain. Tinkoff are making bullish noises about Rafal's form and he certainly has the pedigree to be a strong contender even if it is his first race of the year.
Katusha - Leader: Joaquim Rodriguez, Support: Moreno
Jrod likes this race and in particular likes Green Mountain, he has won up here before and finished 2nd and 7th in other years. Like Nibali he rode Dubai but did not do a lot, it's pretty hard to read his form and Katusha have got more riders in support of Kristoff for the sprints than for Jrod, who can rely, as ever, on Dani Moreno. Actually Dani might have a shot here if the stage up Green Mountain gets defensive and is ridden at a slower pace as he showed OK form in Argentina a few weeks ago.
Movistar - Leader: Alejandro Valverde, Support: Amador
Valverde comes into this race with his usual very good form, he seems to never have races where he isn't challenging for the win, and I'd expect this to be no different. His Movistar squad looks really week and I'm expecting him to be isolated up Green Mountain, despite his form this year like all the other riders here a decent mountain has yet to be tackled, but he can not be discounted and will be one of the favourites.
FDJ - Leader: Thibaut Pinot, Support: Jeannesson, Morabito
An interesting year awaits Thibaut Pinot as a lot more expectation is at his door after a strong Tour de France last year, he showed a positive sign of his condition with a solid time trial in Etoile de Besseges last week where he got 10th in a discipline which is not his strength, although he is rapidly improving in TTs. The arrival of Morabito is a good signing and will help position Pinot to be in the right place at the right times.
SKY - Leader: Wout Poels/Leopold Konig, Support: Lopez, Pate, Diegnan, Earle
This should be the first time Poels get to lead at Sky and possibly his only chance all year as he's tracking Froome's schedule following this. The motivations here are obvious, Sky don't really give riders many opportunities to shine outside of the top guys and Poels should be in shape to take advantage. As Konig is lining up for Sky as well I'm assuming they will be joint leading the team, Konig looked good in Mallorca and for me is probably better than Poels. What interests me here is that this should be an attacking Sky, if they do a standard Sky train up the lower reaches of Green Mountain I won't be surprised, just disappointed. They do not need to and I'm not sure they have the support personnel here to pull that off.
MTN-Qhubeka - Leader: Jacques Janse van Rensburg/Louis Meintjes
I'm including the MTN guys in their own section as they come in with interesting comments form. The African championship races happen in Feb and JJvR arrives as the new SA champ, and stating that this race is one of his targets for the year. He isn't in the league of some of the other riders mentioned above but if he is at his peak he could do well. Meintjes is a future superstar climber, and whilst still young is already starting to rack up good performances, he arrives as the African continental champion which he won last week and he will be looking to take another leap forward this year.
A few other teams come in with good climbers but for whom this maybe too early in their schedule; Arredondo (Trek), Frank (IAM), Barguil (Giant-Alpecin), Costa (Lampre), these riders could contend if they have form but it's there first racing of the year and they are all a bit cautious on their form levels.
As Sky come into this race without Froome or Porte it will be interesting how they approach the race. Movistar and Katusha do not have the personnel to control. I think the race will be made by Tinkoff-Saxo and BMC. It will be upto every team's leader to drop Valverde to win this race as he should win any "sprint" at the top of Green Mountain. Dropping Valverde is not an easy thing to do, he is seemingly always in form, however he doesn't have a lot of support from his squad here and he chose not to take the start of the last stage in Qatar citing health issues which are a concern.
Looking at the odds I think Valverde is a bit short at 2/1, and Nibali is theoretically the best climber here and he's also a savage descender which should help in the stage to the Ministry. Therefore I'm happy to go 1.5pt at 9/2 for him to take out the GC.
Nothing else really appeals at the prices
For stage 1 I have backed Nacer Bouhanni at 11/1 for 1pt win (currently 7's but still backable). He showed signs of form in that last Qatar stage, Bouhanni in form wins this stage.
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