Strade Bianche 2015

It's time for Strade Bianche, a relatively new race to the calendar but one which has quickly become a classic due to its spectacular scenery and racing provided by the white gravel roads that the peloton cross over at various points in the race. These gravel sections combined with numerous hills and the final wall in Siena make this a hard race generally won by the elite puncheurs of the peloton.

Strade Bianche in the dry is picturesque and dusty, in the wet it's less fun.

The Strade Bianche parcours is up and down and over gravel all day, above is the last 20k

The route is pretty much the same as last year and the weather looks to be set fair so the best place to look for a guide to the race is last years race, which was a cracker. I remember fondly the cheer that went up on Look Mum No Hands when Kwia broke Sagan with a hard attack on the Siena wall, (not quite sure why Kwia was the crowd favourite, maybe they had money on him, I didn't). A good guide to last year's race is again Cosmo's how the race was won which I've linked below;

To win this race a rider needs the following; Power and punch up short sharp climbs and bike handling skills to deal with the up and down on the gravel, a strong team and a bit of luck will also help.

So lets look at the contenders...

AG2R - Montaguti, Betancur, Nocentini, don't think Montaguti is good enough, Betancur could be in any shape, Nocentini is getting on a bit.

Androni - Gatto, Tvetcov, I'll be interested to see how Tvetcov does in this kind of race, he has a lot of talent and certainly the engine for a race like this.

Astana - Nibali, Lutsenko, I think Lutsenko is most likely to be Astana's lead here, it's a bit early for Nibali to be in top shape still as his targets are later in the year. Lutsenko is a talent...

Bardiani - Bongiorno, Colbrelli, Battaglin, they have brought basically all their good riders to a race on home soil, they'll certainly be visible but it's difficult to see how any of the team can win this race.

BMC - Van Avermaet, Stetina, GVA comes in on the back of some OK performances and what sound like fairly flimsy doping allegations, he knows this race and is certainly a contender, he should have full support from BMC but I don't think he'll win here.

Etixx - Stybar, Uran, Terpstra, despite only Uran returning to the race from the team who had the winner last year in Kwia Etixx still have the strongest team here, just like in pretty much every classic race through the year really. Terpstra and Stybar should have no issues with the terrain as they are supreme bike handlers and they are both in great shape, Uran is a bit more unknown but if in form he could go well.

Lampre - Not a lot to get excited about here, Pozzato doesn't have much history here. Niemec is a good rider though who likes this race. I think he's likely to top 10-15.

Movistar - Valverde, Amador, a strong team to support AV who as ever will be in good form and will definitely be a contender, the best of the rest last year after missing Sagan and Kwia's tactical move. It will be surprising if Valverde does not top 5. Amador gives great support in this race and generally finishes reasonably high up.

Orica - Gerrans, Yates, Gerro is just back from injury so it would take decent odds for me to back him and Yates struggled in La Drome last weekend so I'm not sure there is much to see here for the australian team.

Southeast - Finetto, Gavazzi, the Southeast team have a couple of OK contenders here, Gavazzi has been finishing on the podium in one day races frequently and Finetto has quality. Doubtful either are worth backing though even at largish prices, the wall in Siena will be too much. Expect them to be active though to get on the TV in a home race.

Cannondale-Garmin - Moser, 2013 winner Moser had a crap year in 2014 but has shown signs of life in 2015 which means that he should be considered a contender for this race. He needs to have some good results to show that he is delivering on the promise he once showed and he obviously is decent in this race. I'm struggling to see how he wins though.

Katusha - I'm looking blankly at their team and I still do not understand their selection policy. Why is Tsatevich riding here and didn't ride in Le Samyn on Wednesday where he has 1st and 2nd in his last two rides at that race. The team is making up the numbers here. To be fair Caruso came 8th here a couple of years ago but for a well budgeted team I don't think they have great squad depth.

LottoNL-Jumbo - Vanmarcke, Martens, I'd rate Vanmarcke and Martens a bit higher for this race if the team had managed to bring more than 5 riders. That is not a lot of support so if either of these guys is to contend then they will need luck. Vanmarcke is in great shape so cannot be dismissed but I think the final wall is too punchy for him.

Sky - Kennaugh, apparently Sky are riding for Kennaugh and Puccio (no chance) here. Kennaugh is a class act with a lot to come but not in this race.

Tinkoff - Sagan, Kreuziger, king of 2nd in Strade Bianche Peter Sagan (2014, 2013) will lead Tinkoff, the race suits him perfectly and he's been in good shape all year but hasn't won a race yet. He will only get stronger though and Kreuziger should provide good support.

Trek - Cancellara, Felline, Stuyven, The classics god Cancellara has won this race twice before and is hunting for another win as he now has more focus on winning more often rather than just focussing on the Goliath classics like last year. He got a good win in a stage in Oman when amongst others he beat Sagan out of a select group and he obviously likes this race. Felline has been going well recently with a string of high finishes and Stuyven just exudes quality and is a star of the future.


Tactically I think Etixx will have numbers on the other teams but they so often find a way to get mugged (Omloop, Le Samyn) that it doesn't mean they will necessarily win despite the likelihood of them having numbers once the race breaks up. Does Stybar or Terpstra have the uphill punch to drop Sagan on the wall in Siena like Kwia did last year, I'm not so sure and Sagan will either have to be dropped or tactically outmanouvred.

I like Trek's options here, Cancellara will be super strong and loves the race, he's obviously got a good sprint on him at the moment and he could definitely win solo also. I think he'll probably have company of Felline and Stuyven as support too. In fact I think Cancellara could be the man to beat, therefore he's my main pick at 7/1, twice winner and in great shape it's 1.5pt WIN.

As I tweeted earlier I want to cover off Stuyven and I tipped him up 0.3pt ew at 250s, he's now 150s but still backable. The guy is brilliant and I think a touch underrated in the markets, at some point he will win a big race, this could be that race.

For a H2H bet I'm backing Niemec v pellizotti 6/5 for 1.5pt. Niemec has form and history at this race, Pellizotti has form but I just think Niemec is likely to beat him.

An absolute stonker of a H2H is Terpstra v cunego on the Kambi sites at 11/10. Terpstra is one of the strongest riders out there and probably a bit of value in the win market too but I'm going to cover him off here. Cunego is no longer the dope fuelled force he once was and I don't expect him to go that well here to be the underdog in this matchup is mental. I have 3pts on this across the sites (888, 32red, Unibet and there are others).