Omloop is a hard cobbled sharp hills race a bit like a mini Flanders, it's attritional, unpredictable, and if you're only going to watch one or two races a year, Saturday is definitely a good candidate to choose.
I'm not going to go over the route in excruciating detail, as others will do it better than me (cyclingquotes' preview is excellent for route analysis).
The weather is often the key in these races and at the moment it's looking cold and windy with a small chance of rain.
The race will start in earnest once it gets to about 100k to go once the short steep cobbled climbs start to cluster and then there will be an inevitable attack up the Taaienberg with 60k to go. Either Vanmarcke or Boonen will force a hard pace here and a selection will be made of riders who can keep pace with these repeated rapid attacks up the bergs of Flanders.
The forecasted windy conditions will mean that even away from the bergs the exposed farmland of Belgium means crosswinds can split the peloton as quickly as the bergs. The winner of this will be a one day race expert, confortable on the cobbles and have a decent turn of pace as it's rare for riders to solo to the win. Usually it finishes in a two or three up sprint, last year Yogi Stannard outsprinted the normally quicker Greg Van Avermaet, 2013 saw Paolini beat Vandenbergh, 2012 Vanmarcke from Boonen and Flecha.
The perhaps surprising results of those little sprints from two or three men breaks are the reason why riders are happy to work with each other even if one is usually going to be faster than the other in a sprint. Stannard knew that with the slightly uphill drag finish he could start his sprint early and there was a fair chance that GVA would never get back in front. Mind you last year was a brutal race, nicely recapped below
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So lets look at the contenders, the first place you need to look in all the classics is Etixx, they have 8 riders, 6 of which would not surprise me if they won. That just gives them so many options and riders to attack and wear the other teams away. The Etixx team is made up as follows; Boonen, Keisse, Maes, Stybar, Terpstra, Trentin, GVK, and Vandenbergh. That is just a monstrous team and they will make the race.
The only other team which comes close to being as strong as Etixx is BMC, they line up with Burghardt, Drucker, Gilbert, Kueng, Schar, Teuns, Van Avermaet, Zabel. I like the engines they have to put GVA, Gilbert and Drucker in position, this is not a race to only have one pony and I think you have to give all three of these guys licence to attack.
Sky bring last years winner Ian Stannard supported by a mixed line up, Wiggo for some practice on cobbles and earn the right to get support for his Paris Roubaix target later in the year by working for others. Andy Fenn could go well but he's still a bit short of being top level so I guess it has to be all on Yogi for Sky which is fair enough as he did win last year.
FDJ always seem to have riders in an around the sharp end of this race and they have a couple of riders who could do well, Offredo was in the thick of it last year before crashing and Ladagnous is good too and showed some form in Haut Var last week with top 10 finishes in both stages. Demare doesn't seem to be at the top of his shape yet and it's hard to see how he wins in any scenario really.
Katusha arrive with the absolutely brilliant Kristoff, last years Milan San Remo winner who has started this year like a train, he's talking up his chances of winning cobbled monuments this year and he definitely can. He is the joint early favourite in the betting which I find remarkable to be honest. His best result here is 77th, he doesn't seem to like the race, and he has a crap team here to support him, I wouldn't back him at 10/1 let alone 5/1.
Lotto Jumbo are all about Sep Vanmarcke and for good reason. This guy is brilliant on cobbles. He showed glimpses of shape in previous days and he will be in shape, these races are the time of year when he gets to shine. He has to be amongst the favourites for this race, he's incredibly consistent and a previous winner.
IAM bring Sylvain Chavanel to the Omloop, I kind of like Sylvain's chances here as he is such a good rider and he has classics pedigree, however I don't like his odds too much.
So to my bets....
I like Jempy Drucker's chances here as the maybe unwatched member of BMC's team, he's in good condition and he had a strong classics season last year, as I tweeted yesterday there was 125s available and I took 0.5pt ew at that. He's now 66/1 which is OK but hopefully a lot are on at the former price which was available for a fair bit. Jempy has a good sprint and should have no problem with the terrain, I think he'll do a strong race.
Next up is another outsider that strangely I've heard almost no one talk up. Ladagnous is a strong classics rider with good pedigree and as previously mentioned hints of form from Haut Var. At 100/1 I'm happy to take 0.4pts each way with Boyles/Ladbrokes. Note: Boyles has an extra place available so if you can place it with them.
And finally my main pick is Zdenek Stybar, I really like both his pedigree, staying power, part of the strongest team with cards to play, I seriously doubt he will be dropped and he has a fast sprint. At 10/1 with Bet365 I am going to have 1.5pt win.
I also want a matchbet which is Boonen v kristoff at 6/5 various. I've taken 4pts of this. Kristoff sounds like he is at this and KBK for training more than anything else, he didn't look too strong on the hilly stages in the middle East and he does not have a good record in this race. Boonen will be there or thereabouts.
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