This year the world championships are being held in Spain, there are very few flat roads in spain and this years TTT is a bit more lumpy than last years pan flat course.
A good starting point is to look at last years race. OPQS triumphed by under 1 second over Orica Greenedge which is extraordinary if you consider this was a 64 minute effort (full results here).
For this years race I would expect the same teams to be contending for the win (plus Movistar), over the World Championship distance there can be no passengers and a lot of teams just do not have the TT depth to contend against the big TTT focused teams.
There have been two other TTT's this year in Tirreno-Adriatico and the Giro d'Italia in Ireland when Dan Martin infamously hit a grate. A Tony Martin inspired OPQS won from Orica in Tirreno and in the Giro Orica triumphed over OPQS without Tony Martin, the teams will be different and the Worlds course is over double the length of these but they give an idea of the two most TTT focused teams. However the worlds is a target for all the big teams and it is not just between OPQS and Orica.
The course this year is lumpy with a couple of steep sections.
There's not a lot of point at looking at the following teams; AG2R, FDJ, Lampre (unless Ulissi gets a ride), Lotto Belisol, Europcar, and Katusha. They do not have the personnel to do anything here, I will look at them for H2H purposes but not in depth for the win.
From Pro-Conti level the only team who might do well is Rusvelo.
Lets look at the contending Lineups;
OPQS: Boonen, Kwiatkowski, T Martin, Serry, Terpstra, Vermote.
This is a really interesting selection from the reigning champions as Boonen, Serry and Vermote are not really names I would have picked from the full OPQS roster. These three riders come into the team this year in place of Vandewalle, Chavanel, and P Velits who all now race on different teams, Vandewalle and Chavanel are world class elite time trialists and Velits is handy too, so for me this is a significant downgrade on last years squad.
BMC: Dennis, Dillier, Oss, Quinziato, TJVG, P Velits
This is a really strong team from BMC, each rider in this line up can really contribute to a TTT performance of note from BMC. Dennis is one of the very best TT rider's in the world, Dillier will be near that level in 2 or 3 years time, Oss is solid, Quinziato has been going great in TT's this year, TJVG has a TT pedigree and P Velits has been part of the OPQS TTT machine in recent years.
Sky: Puccio, Kiryienka, Thomas, Wiggins, Cataldo, Suitsou
A strong team from Sky, Puccio rings alarm bells though for me, I'm not sure what he adds to this squad. Thomas looked a bit cooked in Canada in races that if he were in shape he would contend in. Wiggins may well make up for these deficiencies though as he moves further towards the track. Cataldo, Kiry and Suitsou are solid as a rock.
Giant-Shimano: Arndt, Dumoulin, Haga, Kittel, Ludviggson, Preidler
Giant are my dark horse for a top 5 placing here. Tom Dumoulin is the stand out name and one of the few riders in the world who can genuinely challenge Tony Martin in a ITT, Ludviggson is a favourite punt of mine in ITT's as many of you will know and he has a lot of talent, Arndt has posted a couple of good TT's over the year and Kittel and Haga can handle themselves also. Giant have been working towards improving their TTT for some time and I think this is maybe too early for them to genuinely challenge the big teams but I don't think they'll be too far away.
Orica Greenedge: Lancaster, Howson, Mouris, Durbridge, Hepburn, Tuft
This is a unit, 5 of this squad are tried and tested in Orica's very successful recent TTT efforts, and the new boy is Howson who is the U23 world TT champion of 2013. This is several of this teams major 2014 target, individually these riders generally cannot compete with the likes of Martin, Wiggins, Cancellara, Dumoulin etc but as a team they are formidable and I cannot see Orica not getting a top 3 result here.
Trek: Cancellara, Vandewalle, Sergent, Irizar, Popovich, Stuyven
A strong line up from Trek but not one I think can podium although they will be close. Cancellara is the skinniest I've seen in a long time because he is after the road race title and not the ITT and has worked on his shape accordingly, he will still be an asset to this squad but not to the level of Martin will be for OPQS for example. Vandewalle and Sergent have had good years in the ITT but Vandewalle has seemed a touch tired recently and has a cracked rib, the other three are solid but not going to light any TTT fires.
Movistar: (6 from these 7) Amador, Dowsett, I Izaguirre, Malori, Sutterlin, Erviti, Herrada
The home hope for this TTT as the only Spanish team with a hope of doing well here Movistar will have a good lineup for this in theory. The problem I have with Movistar is that usually they disappoint but on home turf they should be galvanised. Dowsett and Malori are top quality, Amador and Izaguirre can handle themselves and Sutterlin has a good junior record versus the clock. Hopefully they pick Herrada over Erviti as for me that makes a stronger line up but obviously I don't know the inner workings at the Movistar camp.
Other teams who have strong riders in the lineup are;
Astana: Grivko, Gruzdev, Kangert, Lutsenko, Westra could all line up for Astana and they could do well if they are in form, Kangert had a hugely disappointing Vuelta whereas Lutsenko has huge promise and showed that in the Vuelta.
Cannondale: Bodnar & Koren are strong riders individually but the rest will not be able to contribute enough for a Cannondale win or podium.
Garmin: Norman Hansen, Talansky, Van Baarle, Navardauskas - Garmin have some nice riders who are in form Van Baarle just won the Tour of Britain, Talansky should have good shape coming out of a Vuelta where he worked for the team, Navardauskas is in form and Norman Hansen has a great TT future.
Belkin: A line up of solid riders who can all do a job, I think Belkin will top 10, an important member of the line up will be Stef Clement who is a former four time Dutch TT champ.
Tinkoff-Saxo: Boaro, Bennati, Juul-Jensen, Roche, Rogers - Tinkoff have good riders in their potential team but I'm not sure this is much of a focus for them coming so soon after the victory of Contador in the Vuelta.
Rusvelo: The russian outfit tends to do pretty well in TTT efforts and is another lineup where the Sum performance is greater than its constituents.
The team I really like here is BMC, I think the course is perfect for them and as soon as I saw their line up I thought it looked really good. In truth there is not a lot to separate some of these teams and it should be tight.
My first bet is BMC to take out the WIN 1pt at 20/1 with BWIN, this seems over priced for me as I think BMC are one of the big contenders.
One aspect of the preview of any Time Trial team or otherwise which I have yet to mention is weather, at the moment it looks like there's a risk of thunderstorms but this far out its hard to tell. Weather can be all important but I'm still taking BMC this far out as I don't think that price will last, the 14s on offer at PP is chunky as well. I also want 1pt of BMC top 3 at 2/1 which you can get at b365 and Kambi platforms.
My 1, 2, 3 is going to be BMC, Orica, OPQS. Doubt you will read that anywhere else.
If there is rain mid race then we need to cover an early starter. That would be Cannondale who are decent and go out earliest of the teams who have any chance at all. 0.2pts win 150/1, Various, 0.1pt top 3 30/1 Kambi.
H2H's
Giant v astana Evens 2pts Kambi platform - Giant should top ten, Astana I'm not so sure, they were not great in the Vuelta and the team is largely the same. *Added another point on this at 2.4*
Belkin v garmin 6/5 1pt Kambi platform - I fancy Belkin to beat garmin here, Belkin have a lot of decent riders in their squad, whereas Garmin have 3 good guys 3 rubbish guys (no offence if any of them read this).
