I thought it would be interesting to look at Milan San Remo's 293km distance by doing some comparisons....
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| Iceland fits nicely within a 293km diameter |
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| The DF11 missile has a range of about 300km which is only a bit more than MSR. |
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| Comparing MSR distance to the base of big Mountains. Olympus Mons is really big. |
So now that we've established that MSR's route is long lets look at it in a bit more detail, travelling from Milan to San Remo the route has some key points to look out for;
Passo del Turchino - Coming after less than halfway into the race, in the early years of the race the peloton would be blown to pieces as attacks would be made on the pass which leads to the coast. By the second half of the 20th century the Turchino no longer became a crucial factor through the improvement in technology and road surfacing. Looking through some of the old photos of the race it's incredible that the same distance more or less has always been covered. In this years race it will pass without such an impact on the modern peloton but make no mistake some riders will be starting to feel a bit fatigued.
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| Giordano Cottur leads Gino Sciardis in an attack on the Turchino Pass in 1926 MSR. |
Cipressa - An easy climb in theory but coming into this climb after 272km this is where the race will start to get really exciting, 5.6km at an average of 4% this is not spectacularly hard but there will be attacks out of the peloton as riders will look to go from a long way out and hope that the chasing peloton is disorganised or is disrupted by crashes. An escape will also look to increase any advantage down the descent, which is twisty and steep (you can watch a video of the Cipressa descent here), although the teams backing sprinters like Katusha or Giant will be trying to control any attackers and keeping them within a safe distance.
Poggio - The most important climb in the race coming just 9.7km from the finish is the Poggio. 3.7km long and at an average of 3.7% again in theory it is not difficult but immediately after Cipressa and with a highly stressed peloton at full gas this will cause many riders to drop away. The crest of the Poggio comes with 5.5km to go and then there is a very fast technical descent which finishes with just 2km to go. Therefore a small gap at the top of the Poggio can be enough to stay away, or sometimes not...
The weather plays an integral role in this race, it is a lot harder in grim weather and the wind plays a role too. The forecast has been moving around a bit through the week from guaranteed wet race to what now looks like a damp start but a likely dry/drying finish with a tailwind for most of the route. This means that there will be a headwind for the start of the Poggio but a more or less tailwind from there on in.
Now the candidates, there are a lot of riders who could win this race but I'm only going to focus on those who made my envelope long list.
Last years winner Alexander Kristoff of Katusha is bidding to be the first man since Zabel to retain MSR back in 2001, he certainly has the same or better form than last year winning a load of races already in the early season. He has the perfect attributes to win this race, a sprinter who can win bunch flat sprint days but who is also so much more, he can climb and like in Flanders last year he's not above chasing on his own. Gambling wise at 5/1 I think he is too short to back just because the race is so reliably unpredictable but he obviously has a good chance of winning.
Next up is Cav who won this race back in 2009 from Haussler, he's installed at 6/1 or so for several reasons, one is that he's started the year really well notching up some really nice wins, he rides for Etixx who are great in one day races, and this race is a target for him. Unfortunately he's unbackable as he had the shits two weeks ago.
Peter Sagan finally got the monkey off his back last week actually winning a stage in Tirreno Adriatico after many many podium finishes. Sagan is a brilliant rider who will win this race one day, I just don't think it will be on Sunday. If he is to win he has to go on the offensive, I don't see him winning a bunch kick ahead of Kristoff and other fast men who will be in play in that scenario. He's possibly the best descender in the sport and he should use that.
BMC bring their dual threat of Gilbert and GVA, I don't think either of them will win as I don't think they have enough zip on a flat finish, they are likely top 5 contenders though.
As well as Cav Etixx also bring two other major threats in Kwiacrush and Stybar. Kwiatkowski is another superb descender, has a great sprint and crucially the racing brain which has enabled him to outshine his junior days sparring partner Sagan. Etixx will definitely give licence to Kwia and Stybar to go with attacks, although they may be more keen on Stybar to attack as Kwia is capable of an excellent leadout for Cav. Stybar is such a rounded rider and a threat in almost any race, he did well last year and carries great form after winning Strade Bianche a few weeks ago.
Haussler is an interesting candidate, he's come back to the fore after a couple of injury plagued seasons and as a former 2nd place man behind peak Cav in 2009 is a definite option. Good in the rain, has great stamina and has impressed me in the sprints he's taken part in. He's not going to outsprint Kristoff/Cav/Greipel but he is a danger.
Talking of Greipel, he is part of a triple threat from Lotto-Soudal for this race, it's a big target for him in a reduced schedule for him this year, I just worry about his descending and his ability to stay towards the front of the pack up the poggio and then how he gets back to the front once he's out of position. It's enough to put me off him despite his relatively attractive odds. Lotto also have Gallopin, who did so well in Paris Nice last week and Tim Wellens, who is a Rolls Royce of a rider, pure class. I think Tim must be a late addition to the startlist as no one is really quoting him but he has good form, no idea how he will cope with the distance but I imagine he might put an attack in on Cipressa.
2013 winner Ciolek has shown decent form recently but I don't see how he wins, Lobato got a lot of people's money earlier in the year at big odds but his price now is too short for me, Swift got third last year which shows he can contend but again it would need to be big odds to tempt me to back him.
Bouhanni made a drama about missing this race last year as he was not selected by his then FDJ team, now he's shifted onto Cofidis as their undisputed team leader and this race is a big target for him. His form has been patchy but maybe just maybe he might be coming into form at the right time, he's certainly talking a good game, if he is on form he is a very very fast sprinter and cannot be discounted.
GiantAlpecin's focus will be on John Degenkolb, he was going well last year and then punctured at a crucial time. Degs is a pure powerhouse and I would back him to go extremely well if positioned right at the end of the race. Unfortunately the Giant camp has been suffering a bit recently from illness and unfortunate injuries and I'm not sure how much support he will have towards the apex of the race.
As well as Lobato, Movistar bring Alejandro Valverde who is a contender in every race he enters including this one. There is zero reason to bring Valverde along if he is not going to give winning a go, and from a small group he has a good flat sprint, but against the likes of Stybar or some other riders in that scenario I think on a flat sprint he'll be second or third.
Now onto Orica, they are grouped around controlling the race for Michael Matthews, he rode well in Paris Nice and they have an excellent lead out man in Daryl Impey to guide Matthews into position. Crucially I am certain Impey doesn't get dropped and will be there to aid Bling Matthews. I actually think Matthews has a good shout here, but I think he will have to be offensive to do so and win in a similar way as Gerrans tends to, out of a small group. If he and Impey can get into a group with say Stybar, Gilbert, Cancellara, Sagan, Wellens or other similar riders, I think there will be enough cohesion to stay away as they will all fancy their chances after 290km in a sprint versus each other. Also if Swift can podium in a bunch kick at MSR then so can Matthews so that attracts me to his chances also.
Other guys I have yet to mention who could do well are Navardauskas, Bonifazio, Gatto, Cimolai, Bole, Stannard and Nizzolo. Special mention out of these and my appointed wildcard picks are Navardauskas and Cimolai. Navardauskas is in good shape and is just an absolute beast who doesn't always make the best decisions but has a great powerful sprint which suits this race. Also Cimolai has been a revelation this year, he has won twice already and if you follow me on twitter I have been trying to get him mentioned on Derren Brown's live show under the hashtag #DerrenMiracle. I knew he was a good rider but his form this year has been a remarkable improvement and he is a valid threat for this race, has finished in the lead group before and is obviously riding well at the moment.
The elephant in the room I have barely mentioned is Fabian Cancellara, I may have this wrong but there is a stat that the last time Cancellara didn't finish on the podium of a Monument Sagan had yet to ride his first one. Cancellara is a legendary classics rider but he's been a bit patchy this year and he cannot attract my money at the understandably depressed odds available.
After bombing through all the range of options (and there are plenty of others), let's look at my scenario I'm going to gamble on the back off. I like the chances of an elite group getting away from the peloton as I think Etixx will get either Stybar or Kwiatkowski to cover attacks and I think too much might be left for Katusha to do to control the race for Kristoff. The shorter distance from the Poggio descent to the finish also aids this and I think a group could leak away on the last few hundred meters of the Poggio and then maintain an advantage.
My bets then are;
Michael Matthews 1.6pt win 22/1
Ramunas Navardauskas 0.3pt ew 100/1
Davide Cimolai 0.3pt ew 80/1
Michal Kwiatkowski 0.5pt win 33/1
Nacer Bouhanni 0.5pt win 33/1
Go on oddschecker as these are available on multiple books.
H2Hs as tweeted earlier.
The weather plays an integral role in this race, it is a lot harder in grim weather and the wind plays a role too. The forecast has been moving around a bit through the week from guaranteed wet race to what now looks like a damp start but a likely dry/drying finish with a tailwind for most of the route. This means that there will be a headwind for the start of the Poggio but a more or less tailwind from there on in.
Now the candidates, there are a lot of riders who could win this race but I'm only going to focus on those who made my envelope long list.
Last years winner Alexander Kristoff of Katusha is bidding to be the first man since Zabel to retain MSR back in 2001, he certainly has the same or better form than last year winning a load of races already in the early season. He has the perfect attributes to win this race, a sprinter who can win bunch flat sprint days but who is also so much more, he can climb and like in Flanders last year he's not above chasing on his own. Gambling wise at 5/1 I think he is too short to back just because the race is so reliably unpredictable but he obviously has a good chance of winning.
Next up is Cav who won this race back in 2009 from Haussler, he's installed at 6/1 or so for several reasons, one is that he's started the year really well notching up some really nice wins, he rides for Etixx who are great in one day races, and this race is a target for him. Unfortunately he's unbackable as he had the shits two weeks ago.
Peter Sagan finally got the monkey off his back last week actually winning a stage in Tirreno Adriatico after many many podium finishes. Sagan is a brilliant rider who will win this race one day, I just don't think it will be on Sunday. If he is to win he has to go on the offensive, I don't see him winning a bunch kick ahead of Kristoff and other fast men who will be in play in that scenario. He's possibly the best descender in the sport and he should use that.
BMC bring their dual threat of Gilbert and GVA, I don't think either of them will win as I don't think they have enough zip on a flat finish, they are likely top 5 contenders though.
As well as Cav Etixx also bring two other major threats in Kwiacrush and Stybar. Kwiatkowski is another superb descender, has a great sprint and crucially the racing brain which has enabled him to outshine his junior days sparring partner Sagan. Etixx will definitely give licence to Kwia and Stybar to go with attacks, although they may be more keen on Stybar to attack as Kwia is capable of an excellent leadout for Cav. Stybar is such a rounded rider and a threat in almost any race, he did well last year and carries great form after winning Strade Bianche a few weeks ago.
Haussler is an interesting candidate, he's come back to the fore after a couple of injury plagued seasons and as a former 2nd place man behind peak Cav in 2009 is a definite option. Good in the rain, has great stamina and has impressed me in the sprints he's taken part in. He's not going to outsprint Kristoff/Cav/Greipel but he is a danger.
Talking of Greipel, he is part of a triple threat from Lotto-Soudal for this race, it's a big target for him in a reduced schedule for him this year, I just worry about his descending and his ability to stay towards the front of the pack up the poggio and then how he gets back to the front once he's out of position. It's enough to put me off him despite his relatively attractive odds. Lotto also have Gallopin, who did so well in Paris Nice last week and Tim Wellens, who is a Rolls Royce of a rider, pure class. I think Tim must be a late addition to the startlist as no one is really quoting him but he has good form, no idea how he will cope with the distance but I imagine he might put an attack in on Cipressa.
2013 winner Ciolek has shown decent form recently but I don't see how he wins, Lobato got a lot of people's money earlier in the year at big odds but his price now is too short for me, Swift got third last year which shows he can contend but again it would need to be big odds to tempt me to back him.
Bouhanni made a drama about missing this race last year as he was not selected by his then FDJ team, now he's shifted onto Cofidis as their undisputed team leader and this race is a big target for him. His form has been patchy but maybe just maybe he might be coming into form at the right time, he's certainly talking a good game, if he is on form he is a very very fast sprinter and cannot be discounted.
GiantAlpecin's focus will be on John Degenkolb, he was going well last year and then punctured at a crucial time. Degs is a pure powerhouse and I would back him to go extremely well if positioned right at the end of the race. Unfortunately the Giant camp has been suffering a bit recently from illness and unfortunate injuries and I'm not sure how much support he will have towards the apex of the race.
As well as Lobato, Movistar bring Alejandro Valverde who is a contender in every race he enters including this one. There is zero reason to bring Valverde along if he is not going to give winning a go, and from a small group he has a good flat sprint, but against the likes of Stybar or some other riders in that scenario I think on a flat sprint he'll be second or third.
Now onto Orica, they are grouped around controlling the race for Michael Matthews, he rode well in Paris Nice and they have an excellent lead out man in Daryl Impey to guide Matthews into position. Crucially I am certain Impey doesn't get dropped and will be there to aid Bling Matthews. I actually think Matthews has a good shout here, but I think he will have to be offensive to do so and win in a similar way as Gerrans tends to, out of a small group. If he and Impey can get into a group with say Stybar, Gilbert, Cancellara, Sagan, Wellens or other similar riders, I think there will be enough cohesion to stay away as they will all fancy their chances after 290km in a sprint versus each other. Also if Swift can podium in a bunch kick at MSR then so can Matthews so that attracts me to his chances also.
Other guys I have yet to mention who could do well are Navardauskas, Bonifazio, Gatto, Cimolai, Bole, Stannard and Nizzolo. Special mention out of these and my appointed wildcard picks are Navardauskas and Cimolai. Navardauskas is in good shape and is just an absolute beast who doesn't always make the best decisions but has a great powerful sprint which suits this race. Also Cimolai has been a revelation this year, he has won twice already and if you follow me on twitter I have been trying to get him mentioned on Derren Brown's live show under the hashtag #DerrenMiracle. I knew he was a good rider but his form this year has been a remarkable improvement and he is a valid threat for this race, has finished in the lead group before and is obviously riding well at the moment.
The elephant in the room I have barely mentioned is Fabian Cancellara, I may have this wrong but there is a stat that the last time Cancellara didn't finish on the podium of a Monument Sagan had yet to ride his first one. Cancellara is a legendary classics rider but he's been a bit patchy this year and he cannot attract my money at the understandably depressed odds available.
After bombing through all the range of options (and there are plenty of others), let's look at my scenario I'm going to gamble on the back off. I like the chances of an elite group getting away from the peloton as I think Etixx will get either Stybar or Kwiatkowski to cover attacks and I think too much might be left for Katusha to do to control the race for Kristoff. The shorter distance from the Poggio descent to the finish also aids this and I think a group could leak away on the last few hundred meters of the Poggio and then maintain an advantage.
My bets then are;
Michael Matthews 1.6pt win 22/1
Ramunas Navardauskas 0.3pt ew 100/1
Davide Cimolai 0.3pt ew 80/1
Michal Kwiatkowski 0.5pt win 33/1
Nacer Bouhanni 0.5pt win 33/1
Go on oddschecker as these are available on multiple books.
H2Hs as tweeted earlier.
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