Puncheur Double Day!

As I have had a couple of decent days and I finished work at a friendly hour today I have decided to write a double header blog on the next stage in each of Tirreno-Adriatico and Paris Nice which both take place tomorrow.

Both stages will have contenders of similar stature and type hence the puncheur double header.


Paris Nice first, now this stage in theory is tailor made for Bling aka Michael Matthews, he is superb at these uphill sprints as shown already in this race and this slightly harder finish just suits him even better than the stage he won did. The problem is that Orica did a lot of work today as Bling was in the leaders jersey and they may not be that keen to do all the work again tomorrow as they will be expected too as Bling is favourite. Therefore I think a break has about a 40% chance of making it tomorrow and maybe a 60% chance of a bunch uphill sprint, of course it all depends who is in the break but if Orica and Giant put someone in it then I'd be surprised to see it come back.

The break tomorrow will take some getting into though as the stage starts on a climb so only the strong will be able to cope with what is almost certain to be a blistering start to the day as every non GC rider tries to get into the days escape. Good contenders for this are; Albasini, Impey, Keukeliere, Clarke (Orica), Hivert, Dillier, Boom, Howes, Voeckler and probably plenty more.

The prevalence of Orica riders in my break candidates really does show just how much Orica will decide the outcome, any of those 4 could win from a break if they don't get in the break they bring it back for Bling and provide him with a superb leadout. The devil for the break is picking who gets into it! I'll have a few long odds darts but it's not an easy thing to do...

If the stage comes back to a bunch kick then the finishing 500m uphill on tight roads will mean a huge fight for position and a strong leadout will be vital. A lot of the sprinters will fancy there chances but I'm not convinced in anyone bar Bling (and maybe Degenkolb/Nizzolo) for the gradient which is in the region of 8%, riders who are bit lighter with a bit more punch would be favoured for me, in particular Tony Gallopin who is climbing really well this week and packs a good sprint, indeed he won a sprint a few weeks ago, others would include Vichot, Chavanel, Costa, and Samuel Dumoulin.

Tirreno-Adriatico is a bit more straightforward. Tinkoff will bring this stage to a sprint finish for Sagan, nailed on. He won the exact same stage last year and is favourite to do so again this time round. It really is tailor made for him and it would be a huge surprise to me if he doesn't top 5 at least. 

The above video recaps the important bit of last year's stage and it'll be v similar this time round, although I think we will see an even greater fight as GC teams get involved. Last year there were time gaps as the bunch split apart and all the GC riders will be looking to avoid that.

Alongside Sagan who is the standout candidate here other riders who will be in with a chance are; Stybar, GVA, Cancellara, Cort, Navardauskas, Haas, Vanmarcke, Martin, Martens, Ligthart and again other punchy fastish riders.

Now onto my bets....

Paris Nice

I think we are most likely to get a sprint as not all teams are going to be represented in a break, OPQS may want to try and get Kwia in the mix for bonus seconds, so despite contradicting my earlier thoughts I am mostly going to bet for that scenario but only with small stakes as I have little certainty in the race scenario.

I'm close to backing Matthews but at 7/2 I think it's just too short for me so I am going to go with 3 outsiders who I think are overpriced. 

Nizzolo 66/1 0.5pt e/w - I've backed Nizzolo all week and I don't see why I should stop now. He is better at uphill sprints than flat ones, the gradient might be a little on the high side for him but so is the price.

Gallopin 50/1 0.5pt e/w - Crazy price for a rider who is in top form, he's won sprints already this year beating good riders and I expect him to be there of there abouts.

Sam Dumoulin 80/1 0.5pt e/w - Even crazier price, fast rider in great form and won last weekend where he distanced a strong field to win solo up on a tricky tight finish.

All the above with Ladbrokes.

Tirreno Adriatico

Nailed on punchy sprint as described before.

Again I just think Sagan is too short at 5/4 for this stage, a lot of funny things happen in cycling and I struggle to ever back a rider at that low a price. So my alternative is Magnus Cort Nielsen at 50/1 0.5pt ew PP. He is clearly in good shape as he showed in Strade Bianche and he did well today, this stage suits his particular set of skills better and he could take the win.