The Dubai Tour

Back for it's second year, the Dubai Tour is the start of the middle east mini season which takes in the scenic landscapes of Dubai, Oman and Qatar. Last years Dubai Tour was essentially three sprints for Kittel to win and a time trial, the small time bonuses at the finish meant that the TT was all important and Taylor Phinney took it out for the stage and GC win.

This years Dubai Tour loses the TT which I always think is a bit of a shame, and tries to shake it up a bit. Four stages, 3 flat, and one hill finish. The time bonuses are upped as well to 10, 6, 4 seconds at the finish, and 3, 2, 1 seconds at the intermediate sprints.

The riders like going out to the middle east for a couple of reasons, the stages are hard and fast as in the exposed roads any wind can cause echelons very quickly, teams have to fight for position constantly which gives them good practice for the classic season in Europe where such skills are essential. In addition the weather is good - nobody's going to get a chill, the hotels are nice and they can stay in the same hotel all week. Therefore it's a loaded field with some star names which we'll come to later.

Here are profiles of the stages. Stage 1, 3, 4 will be sprints unless there is some wind or the peloton is a touch lazy in chasing down breaks. Stage 2 will be interesting as the peloton goes through some lumpy terrain finishing up at Hatta Dam.

Stage 1

Stage 2

Stage 3

Stage 4

The GC in this race is going to be decided by three things. Time Bonuses, Echelons, and that Hill Finish. The aspect which is probably most important to look at is this new hill climb in Hatta. According to CS who run a very handy website stage 3 contains two 10% climbs, one 7% and parts of the finish are 17%, obviously they are short sharp efforts but it will cut some riders out of the running for GC.

Echelons are clearly hard to predict as the weather is never going to be a certainty even if you shut down all the subways (it's a prediction people, not a guarantee!), the only thing you can do is look at teams who have the riders who cope well and have the strength to stay at the front as much as possible.

Then there is the time bonuses. Lets say there are 3 sprint stages with 30 secs of bonuses to be shared about. Can any one rider monopolise these ala Kittel and then hang on up the 200m climb at the finish? Well the sprinters present are;

Cavendish (Etixx), Guardini (Astana), Ruffoni (Bardiani), Lobato (Movistar), Degenkolb/Mezgec (Giant), Viviani/Swift (Sky), Sagan oh wait its Juraj not Peter (sorry Juraj) and that's pretty much it. 

At this stage in the season it's really hard to get a tell for form on some of these riders as we simply havn't seen them race, however Cav comes in with San Luis in his legs and Lobato arrives having shone down under. Guardini tends to be sharp at the start of the season and is dangerous on stages where he doesn't have to go uphill. 

My opinion here is that the Dubai Tour is going to be won by someone with a fast sprint, I am not convinced by this "Hill Climb", it looks like it is about 200m at the end at 10-15% average. This will be interesting, some riders will just go backwards in gradients like that, but the road should be good quality and most should be at the finish. It's for a mix between explosive ardennes riders and sprinters who can cope with that kind of rise.

This from tracks for bikers shows the average percentage per kilometer;

But here is the last kilometer in more detail;

The speed into this last 250m will be extremely quick and positioning will be absolutely vital. Start this from 20th and you will not win.

My GC contenders are;

AG2R: Bakelants

Astana: Nibali, Boom

Bardiani: Battaglin

BMC: Gilbert

CCC: Bole

Movistar: Valverde, Lobato

Katusha: Chernetskii, Vicioso

Sky: Swift, Thomas

UHC: Ratto

Etixx: Cavendish

This race is Movistar's to lose. They have the two form riders, first Lobato who was so impressive down under where he was basically unbeatable into Stirling, plus he should be able to get bonus seconds here and there. Alternatively if it's too much for Lobato or Valverde pulls rank with his massive ego then this should suit him well also, if I'm Movistar's DS then you support both and see how they go into stage 3.

Another interesting candidate who might have hefty odds is Grega Bole of CCC, he climbed really well in Mallorca and has a fast finish. He's new to CCC but has some pedigree from years past and he'll have a team of sturdy Poles to get him into position. I'm not too sure how he will cope with crosswinds if they arise and is unlikely to take many bonus seconds in the pure sprints like Lobato could but if the price is right... The price wasn't right unfortunately.

A similar candidate to Bole is Daniele Ratto who has suffered from the merging of Cannondale with Garmin and steps down a rung to the United Healthcare Team who have recruited some handy riders. Ratto is faster than he looks and is good at hill sprints. I want three figure odds but if available I'll be on Daniele to surprise, he should certainly be motivated.

******************UPDATE it appears Jan is no longer on the startlist which is annoying but should have stake returned as a DNS ***************************************************************

Yet another rider I like to go well here is Jan Bakelants, I don't quite know why Etixx got rid of him or if he chose to leave, but moving to AG2R is in my view a great place for him to be, he must be their leader in pretty much all one day races. Bakelants has a good track record up punchy climbs and he could be a real threat. I cannot have Gilbert at 4/1 and Bakelants at 125/1 when there isn't a huge gulf between them.

Bets 

0.3 pt ew Daniele Ratto 250/1 Ladbrokes (back to 80s)

****NOW A DNS**** 0.5 pt ew Jan Bakelants 

1 pt JJ Lobato WIN 8/1 Betvictor