Tour of Qatar

The second of the trio of Middle East races is the Tour of Qatar. No punchy climbs here, instead 5 flat stages with a short TT. The big deal here is the wind, Qatar's exposed peninsular means the Tour is designed to take full advantage of any wind it can, the expected echelons could completely determine this race.

However there are 10, 6, 4 seconds available at the finish of each of the flat stages so the sprinters have a lot of bonus seconds available if they can control the stages and then try and hang on against the TT specialists.

The most important aspect here is the wind, and as ever Qatar will not disappoint with some really windy days forecast, directionally it doesn't look ideal for echelons versus the route of the stages but I think it is likely that we get a stage determined by echelons, or at least reduced bunch finishes of say 50 riders with the rest cut off by echelons.

The TT is 10.9 km and that should give the TT specialists 20-30 seconds over sprinters who can TT quite well like Marcel Kittel and Arnaud Demare.

There is a really stellar line up of riders here and some interesting team selections, some teams have very little sprint talent but are loaded with Classics specialists who will be going full tilt to try and break the stages up and eliminate sprinters. There are plenty of direction changes in these stages and riders will have to be really alert to make sure they are in position whenever echelon racing could happen, this makes for nervous racing and a hard fast week.

The sprint teams are as follows;

Sprint focussed; Giant-Alpecin (Kittel), Cofidis (Bouhanni), Bora (Bennett), MTN (Bos), Katusha (Kristoff), FDJ (Demare)

The problem Giant are going to have is who works with them to control the race for sprints, I suspect Cofidis and Katusha will but I don't think they will have enough firepower to not suffer via an untimely echelon at some point in the 4 stages which could be affected (the last stage should be more sheltered from the wind).

As going against these teams are some real classics powerhouses, teams who will suddenly hit the front in concert in the middle of a stage when there is some crosswind with a surge of power. One rider mid pack loses the wheel infront and a gap of 1 bike length becomes 20 bike lengths and then 30 seconds worth and the bunch is split.

Teams who will attempt this include; Astana, BMC, Etixx - Quickstep, Orica, Sky, Tinkoff, and Trek.
These teams have an array of brilliant riders who I think should break this race at some point in those stages. Therefore I will be restricting my GC picks to riders within these strong teams who have more chance of being the right side of an echelon.

The other factors in GC picks is it is really useful to have some sprint speed to try and get some bonus seconds at the finish and mid race, and also be able to do a good TT performance.

Contenders for GC then in my mind are as follows;

Astana - Westra, Boom
BMC - Gilbert, GVA (not the best of friends these two, will be interesting who leads)
Etixx-Quickstep - Vandenbergh, Van Keirsbulck, Terpstra, Boonen
FDJ - Demare
IAM - Haussler
Orica - Lancaster, Howard
Katusha - Kristoff
Sky - Wiggins, Stannard
Tinkoff - Sagan, Breschel, Bodnar
Trek - Cancellara, Steegmans

I would include EBH in this list, but MTN's team looks really weak apart from for sprint finishes when they have Bos, Sbaragli and EBH. They could detract from each other and EBH's GC chances by going with Bos in the sprints.

I'm not going to go through each candidate as any of the above could win this race in my mind.

My number one candidate is Fabian Cancellara, now each year Fabian doesn't really bother too much with this race and that is the only reason he is not a shorter price. However this year he has been making noises about wanting to win early in the season and more often, he got involved in a sprint in Mallorca when normally he would not risk a sprint for fear of a silly crash. I think this could indicate he will be in Qatar to win, Trek bring a strong team and Cancellara should be one of the fastest in the time trial. He also has a strong sprint at the end of hard stages and it would not be a surprise to see him pick up bonus seconds with podium placings or mid stage. At 19/1 with Ladbrokes I think I'll throw 1.5pt on him to win here.



Stage 1 (as tweeted earlier)

Looks like a headwind or cross headwind all day which makes a sprint more likely. Cross wind in the final 10k or so but that should be when the various sprint trains are fighting hard for position so I think it will be a sprint.

Kittel 2pts win at 15/8

Sam Bennett to bt Heinrich Haussler 1pt 5/4 PP
Arnaud Demare to bt Kristoff 1pt 5/6 365

The Dubai Tour

Back for it's second year, the Dubai Tour is the start of the middle east mini season which takes in the scenic landscapes of Dubai, Oman and Qatar. Last years Dubai Tour was essentially three sprints for Kittel to win and a time trial, the small time bonuses at the finish meant that the TT was all important and Taylor Phinney took it out for the stage and GC win.

This years Dubai Tour loses the TT which I always think is a bit of a shame, and tries to shake it up a bit. Four stages, 3 flat, and one hill finish. The time bonuses are upped as well to 10, 6, 4 seconds at the finish, and 3, 2, 1 seconds at the intermediate sprints.

The riders like going out to the middle east for a couple of reasons, the stages are hard and fast as in the exposed roads any wind can cause echelons very quickly, teams have to fight for position constantly which gives them good practice for the classic season in Europe where such skills are essential. In addition the weather is good - nobody's going to get a chill, the hotels are nice and they can stay in the same hotel all week. Therefore it's a loaded field with some star names which we'll come to later.

Here are profiles of the stages. Stage 1, 3, 4 will be sprints unless there is some wind or the peloton is a touch lazy in chasing down breaks. Stage 2 will be interesting as the peloton goes through some lumpy terrain finishing up at Hatta Dam.

Stage 1

Stage 2

Stage 3

Stage 4

The GC in this race is going to be decided by three things. Time Bonuses, Echelons, and that Hill Finish. The aspect which is probably most important to look at is this new hill climb in Hatta. According to CS who run a very handy website stage 3 contains two 10% climbs, one 7% and parts of the finish are 17%, obviously they are short sharp efforts but it will cut some riders out of the running for GC.

Echelons are clearly hard to predict as the weather is never going to be a certainty even if you shut down all the subways (it's a prediction people, not a guarantee!), the only thing you can do is look at teams who have the riders who cope well and have the strength to stay at the front as much as possible.

Then there is the time bonuses. Lets say there are 3 sprint stages with 30 secs of bonuses to be shared about. Can any one rider monopolise these ala Kittel and then hang on up the 200m climb at the finish? Well the sprinters present are;

Cavendish (Etixx), Guardini (Astana), Ruffoni (Bardiani), Lobato (Movistar), Degenkolb/Mezgec (Giant), Viviani/Swift (Sky), Sagan oh wait its Juraj not Peter (sorry Juraj) and that's pretty much it. 

At this stage in the season it's really hard to get a tell for form on some of these riders as we simply havn't seen them race, however Cav comes in with San Luis in his legs and Lobato arrives having shone down under. Guardini tends to be sharp at the start of the season and is dangerous on stages where he doesn't have to go uphill. 

My opinion here is that the Dubai Tour is going to be won by someone with a fast sprint, I am not convinced by this "Hill Climb", it looks like it is about 200m at the end at 10-15% average. This will be interesting, some riders will just go backwards in gradients like that, but the road should be good quality and most should be at the finish. It's for a mix between explosive ardennes riders and sprinters who can cope with that kind of rise.

This from tracks for bikers shows the average percentage per kilometer;

But here is the last kilometer in more detail;

The speed into this last 250m will be extremely quick and positioning will be absolutely vital. Start this from 20th and you will not win.

My GC contenders are;

AG2R: Bakelants

Astana: Nibali, Boom

Bardiani: Battaglin

BMC: Gilbert

CCC: Bole

Movistar: Valverde, Lobato

Katusha: Chernetskii, Vicioso

Sky: Swift, Thomas

UHC: Ratto

Etixx: Cavendish

This race is Movistar's to lose. They have the two form riders, first Lobato who was so impressive down under where he was basically unbeatable into Stirling, plus he should be able to get bonus seconds here and there. Alternatively if it's too much for Lobato or Valverde pulls rank with his massive ego then this should suit him well also, if I'm Movistar's DS then you support both and see how they go into stage 3.

Another interesting candidate who might have hefty odds is Grega Bole of CCC, he climbed really well in Mallorca and has a fast finish. He's new to CCC but has some pedigree from years past and he'll have a team of sturdy Poles to get him into position. I'm not too sure how he will cope with crosswinds if they arise and is unlikely to take many bonus seconds in the pure sprints like Lobato could but if the price is right... The price wasn't right unfortunately.

A similar candidate to Bole is Daniele Ratto who has suffered from the merging of Cannondale with Garmin and steps down a rung to the United Healthcare Team who have recruited some handy riders. Ratto is faster than he looks and is good at hill sprints. I want three figure odds but if available I'll be on Daniele to surprise, he should certainly be motivated.

******************UPDATE it appears Jan is no longer on the startlist which is annoying but should have stake returned as a DNS ***************************************************************

Yet another rider I like to go well here is Jan Bakelants, I don't quite know why Etixx got rid of him or if he chose to leave, but moving to AG2R is in my view a great place for him to be, he must be their leader in pretty much all one day races. Bakelants has a good track record up punchy climbs and he could be a real threat. I cannot have Gilbert at 4/1 and Bakelants at 125/1 when there isn't a huge gulf between them.

Bets 

0.3 pt ew Daniele Ratto 250/1 Ladbrokes (back to 80s)

****NOW A DNS**** 0.5 pt ew Jan Bakelants 

1 pt JJ Lobato WIN 8/1 Betvictor

A couple of one day races...

Quick blog for GP Marseilles and the Cadel Ocean Race which the bookies have obliged and priced up.

As ever in these early season races it is hard to know who is in shape and who is not. But there is more of a tell for the Cadel Evans Great Ocean Road Race down under. The inaugural edition marks the retirement of Cadel Evans and he part designed the course, it takes in aspects of the Worlds RR course from a few years ago when a small bunch of hardened sprinters fought out the win with mighty Thor Hushovd taking the rainbow stripes.

The course is neither as long or as hard as that route though so I think the most likely result is another reduced sprint. One concern for this scenario is BMC with Cadel who don't have a sprinter really so they will be attacking all over the place, but there are enough teams with an interest in a sprint to control the race if they want to. Forecasts for the race also suggest that there's going to be hefty south westerly wind which might break things up a bit and I would want to back a rider from a strong squad as BMC are likely to put the hammer down whenever there is a chance to break the race up.

The sprint options are Caleb Ewan, Sam Spokes, Tyler Farrar or Matt Goss for MTN, Heinrich Haussler, Eugenio Alafaci, Mark Renshaw or Gianni Meersman for Etixx.

Caleb Ewan is the form rider out of these options, OK he lost to Haussler in the Aussie Road Race but I'm still not convinced by him, he always seems to have an excuse. So I've had 1pt on Caleb to win at 4/1 (Now 7/2 at PP, BV). Ewan is a lot more than a pure sprinter and I have no doubts that he can cope with the course and by all accounts he has stronger form now than a couple of weeks ago when he looked frankly frighteningly good.

I have my eye on a couple of other riders but not at the prices available, hopefully other bookies will price up later in the day and I'll put another pick up.



Marseilles is a european rider free for all, it could be a solo winner, could be a reduced sprint, could be a full sprint. It looks like headwind wind conditions should favour the bunch sprint scenario so I'm going to go with a rider I think could have a big year. Roy Jans of Wanty, last year he came out of the starting blocks for year hard and if he survives the climbs, which I think is touch and go but if the race goes the way I think it might he will, he is one of, if not the fastest rider here. 10/1 at BV is too tempting so I'm having 0.8pt WIN. The 8/1 at PP is fine too.


SUMMARY

Cadel Ocean Race - 1pt Caleb Ewan 7/2 WIN, BV/PP


Marseilles - 0.8pt Roy Jans 10/1 WIN, BV (or 8/1 at PP)

TDU Stage 2

This is the annual uphill sprint into Stirling that the TDU graces us with every year.

This is a pretty consistent profile and it gives us a mixed sprint between the fast GC men looking for bonus seconds and sprinters who can cope with a bit of a hill. Now to get an idea of the contenders we do not have to go very far, we just need to look at the results from the last few years....

What is pretty clear is you have to be proper fast to get a win here, but there is also a place for riders who are not out and out sprinters or even known as sprinters, look at the last two winners, in a flat sprint Slagter gets beat by Goss and Ulissi loses to Gerrans.

Candidates are as follows;

Gianni Meersman, JJ Lobato, Nathan Haas, Daryl Impey, Simon Geschke, TomDum, Cadel Evans, SamDum, and newly crowned Aussie champ Heinrich Haussler.

First up lets look at Nathan Haas, if I'd backed him for GC I'd be looking at that table above and thinking "erm, where is Haas?" this is one of the stages where he has to get bonus seconds on the purer climbers. Haas came 5th in the GC in this race last year yet he was 18th in the stage into Stirling. No excuse, he's not backable.

Daryl Impey is the early bookmakers favourite and for good reason, he did the leadout for Gerrans last year and left the peloton gasping whilst still getting 10th, but does he have the top speed to win this? Impey is 30 years old and has not won many races down the years, admittedly he is working for others a lot of the time. Too short a price to back. However Orica will look to devastate the peloton to set him up as they will know that he won't win a sprint v anyone really quick but he is worth considering.

Giant bring a duo of fastish punchy riders in Geschke and TomDum. Of these two I prefer TomDum, he has a very surprising sprint and the races in Canada last year showed that he can compete in hard sprints.

Cadel Evans can never be discounted and I'd quite like to see him go well, he got 3rd here last year and I wouldn't be surprised if he repeats that.

Haussler is the Aussie RR champ and is talking himself up for this stage. However I don't think I can back him on the basis of beating a tired 20 year old from a break in that race.

Yet again I like Meersman, I know he can climb at World Tour pace and he is very very fast, he has won uphill finishes like this before and won races where he's basically been the only fast rider left.

Lobato is a huge danger he's looked fast on the flat and his wins have mostly come on finishes similar to this. In the tour de wallonie last year he beat meersman and with meersman he has to be joint favourite.

Looking at how the books are currently I think TomDum is the standout bet at 50s with bet victor and I've had half a point ew.

I will return later once my train eventually gets me home!

Tom Dumoulin 0.5pts ew 50/1 (min odds I would take are 25/1).

***UPDATE***

I'm adding Lorenzo Manzin at 200/1 (back till under 100/1), he's very young but is good on these finishes and I fancy having a small long shot play at 0.1pt ew at Betvictor.

TDU Stage 1

So after the surprisingly enjoyable People's Choice criterium where we managed to get our outsider pick Wouter Wippert a nice 3rd place return it's time for the World Tour to kick off with the first stage of the Tour Down Under.

The profile is below;

This is marked down as a sprint stage but it's not a straightforward one, as you can see it's undulating and has a little berg like hill at 100km. This for me is crucial, Kittel is the bookies favourite but I would probably back him to be dropped. The finishing kilometres is a bit of an uphill drag as well which should knacker Kittel out if he's still there as well. Everyone knows that if Kittel makes it to the final flat bit of the sprint then he is like a 1/2 favourite but I think there is enough in this stage to look elsewhere and look for value elsewhere.

First up is Giacomo Nizzolo who on paper is the 2nd fastest rider here, I'm happy to ignore the People's Choice classic in terms of his performance as he was out of position all the way through, he has stated he wants to get the season off well and take a good shape into the Tour Down Under. Nizzolo is really consistent and should not have a problem with these kind of up and down stages and at 15/1 he is my outright pick for the win. 1.5pt to win.

Next up I'm going to look for a big price e/w candidate and I can see a lot of interest in two riders who showed up well in the People's choice, the two riders who followed Kittel in, Lobato and Wippert.

Lobato is definitely more suited to this kind of stage and he did a really strong sprint to basically jump out into the wind and effectively close down Kittel and leapfrog a lot of sprinters who were sat in wheels in the process. This stage will suit him and if I can get a decent price he will be my e/w pick.

Wippert is another good shout here, you may have guessed I'm a fan of the young dutchman who had some bad luck when on the cusp of a big contract when he broke his knee cap a few years ago, now riding for Drapac he won a lot of races in the lower levels last year and he can do a really good uphill sprint.

Gianni Meersman also seriously tempts as he should have no problems whatsoever with tomorrow's stage and is priced at an attractive 40/1 ew (1/5) with Bet365. He got 6th in the People's Choice which shows he has some shape and the guy is a proven winner. 0.4 pts ew on Meersman at 40/1.

****update**** I have been convinced of the merits of young bonifazio and I'm going to really commit to Kittel not making this finish and back Bonifazio ew at 40/1.

Other candidates will be riders like Haussler, Von Hoff, whoever Lotto go with out of Hendo, Vallee and De Haes, and SamDum..

Taking JJ Lobato at 10/3 to beat Kittel H2H for 0.5pts also.

Nizzolo 1.5pts win at 15/1, I'd still back him down to 8s
Meersman 0.4pts ew at 40s, back to 20s
Bonifazio 0.5pts ew at 40s, Betvictor, Ladbrokes.

JJ Lobato to beat Kittel 0.5pt at 10/3

Tour Down Under 2015

The now traditional kick off to the World Tour in Australia is an interesting and balanced event with a mix of stages. This race is a big opportunity for riders who can't do the big mountains to make a mark at the highest level and certain riders will be primed to do just that. However the favourites for the race will be two of the big hitters from Australian cycling, Richie Porte and Cadel Evans, it would be a trio but last years winner (who beat Cadel by 1 second) Simon Gerrans is still nursing his broken collarbone.

The GC in this race is shaped by two things, bonus seconds and willunga hill.

Stage 1 is a sprint.

Stage 2 is a harder sprint into Stirling with a mix of GC riders and stage hunters.

Stage 3 is intriguing and should be similar to Stirling.

Stage 4 is at a glance another hard sprint, could be a break also.

Stage 5 is Willunga Hill

Stage 6 is an interesting looking crit.

To a lot of people this race could basically be a question of can Porte take enough time out of Evans on Willunga Hill to make up for the bonus seconds that wily Evans with his pretty decent sprint is likely to snaffle up in stages 2/3. Last year Porte took 14 seconds out of Evans on this hill, this year Porte has already shown he is in brilliant condition beating a world class time triallist in Rohan Dennis in the Aussie Nats TT, there is no way he does this unless he is in form. Evans' shape is a complete unknown really, I suspect he may not even podium in this race, he is a year older and I think Porte can and will beat him. However I think Richie might be a touch short at 7/4 to back pre race.

So is there anyone else in the field who can contend? Yes there's plenty, but they will have to be at the top of their game to beat Tasmania's Porte. They need to have the snap required for a short sharp climb like Willunga and a decent sprint to try and get bonus seconds here and there.

In my mind the contenders who could challenge are;

Michael Rogers, Domenico Pozzovivo, Eros Capecchi, Tiago Machado, LL Sanchez, Maxime Bouet, Alex Howes, Nathan Haas, Kristijan Durasek.

Out of these options I like Durasek's chances as a rank outsider, he comes here as Lampre's GC rider and although it's a big step for him, the little bit of extra climbing in this years race will suit and I just think at the odds (advised on twitter at 125/1) are good. Outside of Porte and Evans the field isn't particularly impressive and I think with a fair wind Durasek has a shot.

0.2pts ew at 125/1 Durasek for GC.

Aussie RR 2015

Short blog here as I wasn't going to bother but as it's my first bets of the year I thought I should!

The Aussie Road Race is the prize for Australian cyclists as they get to wear the champions jersey all year long and as they go the Australian jersey is pretty decent.

Gerrans taking out Liege Bastogne Liege last year in his Aussie champs jersey.

The route of the race stays consistent each year with 18 laps around Buninyong with the below profile;

This is where Buninyong is in the expanse of Aussieland.

The profile may not look too hard but going up that climb 18 times is hard and due to the dynamics of the australian racing it's not an easy race to call.

Basically there are some Australian teams which have a lot of riders in the race who are responsible for controlling the race. These teams are Drapac (12 riders) and Orica Greenedge. A rider from Orica has won this race for the last few years and it is very important for them to take the Aussie jersey around all the big races through the year. However as most of you will know they are without their trump card Simon Gerrans as he fell off his mountain bike a month ago and broke his collarbone. Without this unfortunate incident Orica would be all about setting it up for Gerrans and he would have gone off evens or shorter to win. Without Gerrans Orica will look towards two riders for the final lap carnage in Cam Meyer and Simon Clarke. However if they get someone in a break, say Durbridge or Howson then they will not chase and its very likely Drapac will get someone into every break so they won't chase either. This will leave it to team BMC who have the retiring Australian legend Cadel Evans going for glory in one of his final races, they have two riders to help him; Campbell Flakemore and Rohan Dennis. Two very big engines but it might be hard for them to control a big break.

So there are three options; 

 - a final lap attack fest up the climb between Clarke, Meyer, Porte, Evans, Rogers and possibly Adam Hansen.

- a break stays away with some Drapac riders, some Orica riders and a scattering of other riders.

- a fast man mini sprint between say Von Hoff, Ewan, and van der Ploeg.

The most likely of these is probably a fight out between the big names, so lets look at that option first. I like Clarke here for a couple of reasons, long term Orica are going to try and set Clarke up for one day races like this and I think they have a lot of faith in him, Gerrans certainly does, he had a quiet year in 2014 but did a lot of work for the team. He has a good sprint, certainly faster than everyone apart from maybe Evans in that group, and he is a brilliant descender which in tricky weather conditions could be useful. I think Meyer will attack early and Dennis/Flakemore will drag him in then he works for Clarke. Then it will be Porte who will go really hard as he only wins solo. Porte's lack of sprint means I think Evans or Clarke are the most likely victors in this scenario. Who knows what shape Evans is in, although I imagine its pretty good as he's always been an absolute pro but at 4/1 he's a bit short. So it's Clarke for me in this scenario.

I'm also backing Nathan Earle as although unmentioned previously in this blog, he is a talent and a team mate of Porte's at Sky. The way Sky works is that these young riders basically get almost no opportunity to shine so he should be keen here, he should try and get into a break and get a free ride from Orica/Drapac riders, alternatively he could do a Meyer style early attack. At 100/1 he is too large a price to ignore.

From the fast man option I have gone with van der Ploeg, 4th here in 2013 he was climbing well recently and is under the radar enough to surprise. Von Hoff is a good option and always goes well but he will be so isolated it's hard to see who takes him to the line. Ewan should be in the role of domestique for the more established Orica riders. So I've taken a small bet of van der Ploeg at 150s.

Simon Clarke winning a stage, hopefully to be repeated in the small hours of Sunday!

BETS:

1pt Simon Clarke to WIN 18/1 Bet365.

0.2pts ew Nathan Earle EW 100/1 various.

0.1pts ew Neil van der Ploeg 150/1 various.