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This is marked down as a sprint stage but it's not a straightforward one, as you can see it's undulating and has a little berg like hill at 100km. This for me is crucial, Kittel is the bookies favourite but I would probably back him to be dropped. The finishing kilometres is a bit of an uphill drag as well which should knacker Kittel out if he's still there as well. Everyone knows that if Kittel makes it to the final flat bit of the sprint then he is like a 1/2 favourite but I think there is enough in this stage to look elsewhere and look for value elsewhere.
First up is Giacomo Nizzolo who on paper is the 2nd fastest rider here, I'm happy to ignore the People's Choice classic in terms of his performance as he was out of position all the way through, he has stated he wants to get the season off well and take a good shape into the Tour Down Under. Nizzolo is really consistent and should not have a problem with these kind of up and down stages and at 15/1 he is my outright pick for the win. 1.5pt to win.
Next up I'm going to look for a big price e/w candidate and I can see a lot of interest in two riders who showed up well in the People's choice, the two riders who followed Kittel in, Lobato and Wippert.
Lobato is definitely more suited to this kind of stage and he did a really strong sprint to basically jump out into the wind and effectively close down Kittel and leapfrog a lot of sprinters who were sat in wheels in the process. This stage will suit him and if I can get a decent price he will be my e/w pick.
Wippert is another good shout here, you may have guessed I'm a fan of the young dutchman who had some bad luck when on the cusp of a big contract when he broke his knee cap a few years ago, now riding for Drapac he won a lot of races in the lower levels last year and he can do a really good uphill sprint.
Gianni Meersman also seriously tempts as he should have no problems whatsoever with tomorrow's stage and is priced at an attractive 40/1 ew (1/5) with Bet365. He got 6th in the People's Choice which shows he has some shape and the guy is a proven winner. 0.4 pts ew on Meersman at 40/1.
****update**** I have been convinced of the merits of young bonifazio and I'm going to really commit to Kittel not making this finish and back Bonifazio ew at 40/1.
Other candidates will be riders like Haussler, Von Hoff, whoever Lotto go with out of Hendo, Vallee and De Haes, and SamDum..
Taking JJ Lobato at 10/3 to beat Kittel H2H for 0.5pts also.
Nizzolo 1.5pts win at 15/1, I'd still back him down to 8s
Meersman 0.4pts ew at 40s, back to 20s
Bonifazio 0.5pts ew at 40s, Betvictor, Ladbrokes.
JJ Lobato to beat Kittel 0.5pt at 10/3
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