TDU Stage 1

So after the surprisingly enjoyable People's Choice criterium where we managed to get our outsider pick Wouter Wippert a nice 3rd place return it's time for the World Tour to kick off with the first stage of the Tour Down Under.

The profile is below;

This is marked down as a sprint stage but it's not a straightforward one, as you can see it's undulating and has a little berg like hill at 100km. This for me is crucial, Kittel is the bookies favourite but I would probably back him to be dropped. The finishing kilometres is a bit of an uphill drag as well which should knacker Kittel out if he's still there as well. Everyone knows that if Kittel makes it to the final flat bit of the sprint then he is like a 1/2 favourite but I think there is enough in this stage to look elsewhere and look for value elsewhere.

First up is Giacomo Nizzolo who on paper is the 2nd fastest rider here, I'm happy to ignore the People's Choice classic in terms of his performance as he was out of position all the way through, he has stated he wants to get the season off well and take a good shape into the Tour Down Under. Nizzolo is really consistent and should not have a problem with these kind of up and down stages and at 15/1 he is my outright pick for the win. 1.5pt to win.

Next up I'm going to look for a big price e/w candidate and I can see a lot of interest in two riders who showed up well in the People's choice, the two riders who followed Kittel in, Lobato and Wippert.

Lobato is definitely more suited to this kind of stage and he did a really strong sprint to basically jump out into the wind and effectively close down Kittel and leapfrog a lot of sprinters who were sat in wheels in the process. This stage will suit him and if I can get a decent price he will be my e/w pick.

Wippert is another good shout here, you may have guessed I'm a fan of the young dutchman who had some bad luck when on the cusp of a big contract when he broke his knee cap a few years ago, now riding for Drapac he won a lot of races in the lower levels last year and he can do a really good uphill sprint.

Gianni Meersman also seriously tempts as he should have no problems whatsoever with tomorrow's stage and is priced at an attractive 40/1 ew (1/5) with Bet365. He got 6th in the People's Choice which shows he has some shape and the guy is a proven winner. 0.4 pts ew on Meersman at 40/1.

****update**** I have been convinced of the merits of young bonifazio and I'm going to really commit to Kittel not making this finish and back Bonifazio ew at 40/1.

Other candidates will be riders like Haussler, Von Hoff, whoever Lotto go with out of Hendo, Vallee and De Haes, and SamDum..

Taking JJ Lobato at 10/3 to beat Kittel H2H for 0.5pts also.

Nizzolo 1.5pts win at 15/1, I'd still back him down to 8s
Meersman 0.4pts ew at 40s, back to 20s
Bonifazio 0.5pts ew at 40s, Betvictor, Ladbrokes.

JJ Lobato to beat Kittel 0.5pt at 10/3

Tour Down Under 2015

The now traditional kick off to the World Tour in Australia is an interesting and balanced event with a mix of stages. This race is a big opportunity for riders who can't do the big mountains to make a mark at the highest level and certain riders will be primed to do just that. However the favourites for the race will be two of the big hitters from Australian cycling, Richie Porte and Cadel Evans, it would be a trio but last years winner (who beat Cadel by 1 second) Simon Gerrans is still nursing his broken collarbone.

The GC in this race is shaped by two things, bonus seconds and willunga hill.

Stage 1 is a sprint.

Stage 2 is a harder sprint into Stirling with a mix of GC riders and stage hunters.

Stage 3 is intriguing and should be similar to Stirling.

Stage 4 is at a glance another hard sprint, could be a break also.

Stage 5 is Willunga Hill

Stage 6 is an interesting looking crit.

To a lot of people this race could basically be a question of can Porte take enough time out of Evans on Willunga Hill to make up for the bonus seconds that wily Evans with his pretty decent sprint is likely to snaffle up in stages 2/3. Last year Porte took 14 seconds out of Evans on this hill, this year Porte has already shown he is in brilliant condition beating a world class time triallist in Rohan Dennis in the Aussie Nats TT, there is no way he does this unless he is in form. Evans' shape is a complete unknown really, I suspect he may not even podium in this race, he is a year older and I think Porte can and will beat him. However I think Richie might be a touch short at 7/4 to back pre race.

So is there anyone else in the field who can contend? Yes there's plenty, but they will have to be at the top of their game to beat Tasmania's Porte. They need to have the snap required for a short sharp climb like Willunga and a decent sprint to try and get bonus seconds here and there.

In my mind the contenders who could challenge are;

Michael Rogers, Domenico Pozzovivo, Eros Capecchi, Tiago Machado, LL Sanchez, Maxime Bouet, Alex Howes, Nathan Haas, Kristijan Durasek.

Out of these options I like Durasek's chances as a rank outsider, he comes here as Lampre's GC rider and although it's a big step for him, the little bit of extra climbing in this years race will suit and I just think at the odds (advised on twitter at 125/1) are good. Outside of Porte and Evans the field isn't particularly impressive and I think with a fair wind Durasek has a shot.

0.2pts ew at 125/1 Durasek for GC.

Aussie RR 2015

Short blog here as I wasn't going to bother but as it's my first bets of the year I thought I should!

The Aussie Road Race is the prize for Australian cyclists as they get to wear the champions jersey all year long and as they go the Australian jersey is pretty decent.

Gerrans taking out Liege Bastogne Liege last year in his Aussie champs jersey.

The route of the race stays consistent each year with 18 laps around Buninyong with the below profile;

This is where Buninyong is in the expanse of Aussieland.

The profile may not look too hard but going up that climb 18 times is hard and due to the dynamics of the australian racing it's not an easy race to call.

Basically there are some Australian teams which have a lot of riders in the race who are responsible for controlling the race. These teams are Drapac (12 riders) and Orica Greenedge. A rider from Orica has won this race for the last few years and it is very important for them to take the Aussie jersey around all the big races through the year. However as most of you will know they are without their trump card Simon Gerrans as he fell off his mountain bike a month ago and broke his collarbone. Without this unfortunate incident Orica would be all about setting it up for Gerrans and he would have gone off evens or shorter to win. Without Gerrans Orica will look towards two riders for the final lap carnage in Cam Meyer and Simon Clarke. However if they get someone in a break, say Durbridge or Howson then they will not chase and its very likely Drapac will get someone into every break so they won't chase either. This will leave it to team BMC who have the retiring Australian legend Cadel Evans going for glory in one of his final races, they have two riders to help him; Campbell Flakemore and Rohan Dennis. Two very big engines but it might be hard for them to control a big break.

So there are three options; 

 - a final lap attack fest up the climb between Clarke, Meyer, Porte, Evans, Rogers and possibly Adam Hansen.

- a break stays away with some Drapac riders, some Orica riders and a scattering of other riders.

- a fast man mini sprint between say Von Hoff, Ewan, and van der Ploeg.

The most likely of these is probably a fight out between the big names, so lets look at that option first. I like Clarke here for a couple of reasons, long term Orica are going to try and set Clarke up for one day races like this and I think they have a lot of faith in him, Gerrans certainly does, he had a quiet year in 2014 but did a lot of work for the team. He has a good sprint, certainly faster than everyone apart from maybe Evans in that group, and he is a brilliant descender which in tricky weather conditions could be useful. I think Meyer will attack early and Dennis/Flakemore will drag him in then he works for Clarke. Then it will be Porte who will go really hard as he only wins solo. Porte's lack of sprint means I think Evans or Clarke are the most likely victors in this scenario. Who knows what shape Evans is in, although I imagine its pretty good as he's always been an absolute pro but at 4/1 he's a bit short. So it's Clarke for me in this scenario.

I'm also backing Nathan Earle as although unmentioned previously in this blog, he is a talent and a team mate of Porte's at Sky. The way Sky works is that these young riders basically get almost no opportunity to shine so he should be keen here, he should try and get into a break and get a free ride from Orica/Drapac riders, alternatively he could do a Meyer style early attack. At 100/1 he is too large a price to ignore.

From the fast man option I have gone with van der Ploeg, 4th here in 2013 he was climbing well recently and is under the radar enough to surprise. Von Hoff is a good option and always goes well but he will be so isolated it's hard to see who takes him to the line. Ewan should be in the role of domestique for the more established Orica riders. So I've taken a small bet of van der Ploeg at 150s.

Simon Clarke winning a stage, hopefully to be repeated in the small hours of Sunday!

BETS:

1pt Simon Clarke to WIN 18/1 Bet365.

0.2pts ew Nathan Earle EW 100/1 various.

0.1pts ew Neil van der Ploeg 150/1 various.

Padsbets Fantasy Cycling

Oh my gosh what am I doing? You'll have to do endless excel work in your free time!

This thought crossed my mind as I was adjusting my database and building out an excel spreadsheet to enable a fantasy cycling league administered by my good self...

But despite this I am proposing the following, an auction based fantasy cycling competition based around a points system tweaked slightly from PCS and consisting of all 2.1 and higher races from across the globe for the whole season. The difference between PCS's rankings and mine are I have amalgamated WT one day race points for simplicity, downgraded lower places in 1.1 one day races and lowered the worlds TT points as I think they are over stated.

The league will be H2H with a fixture list drawn up randomly by me, I have split up the season into 46 race "weeks" and therefore we will need 24 teams. However if there is less interest then I will adjust to the number of entrants much like the scottish football divisions.

This doc HERE has the season schedule and my points system.


There will be rounds of auctions before the season starts where sealed bids will be submitted for your chosen riders and the highest bid will get the rider. There will be a budget of 100 and your team will not be allowed to go over this budget in the pre season auction rounds. When submitting your bids you will assign a preference order so if you win too many bids and your team goes over budget or number of riders this is how the riders you end up with will be determined.

Before the first deadline, I will randomly assign each team a number between 1 and 24. This will determine which team will win the auction for a player if there are two bids that tie for the highest amount. The lower of the two numbers will win. After each round, the order will reverse, i.e. the team that was assigned 24 at the start will become 1 for the 2nd round of bidding, and team 1 at the start will become team 24.

The minimum bid is $0. If you bid $0 for a player, if no other team makes a bid for that player, you will win the auction and get the player for free.

Bids can be made in increments of 0.1. So, a bid of $4.5 or $4.6 would be acceptable, but a bid of $4.55 is not.

There will be 5 transfer windows through the season at crucial stages (marked in yellow on the googledoc), the mechanics of which I will detail later once teams are established.

I am proposing 24 teams of 12 riders each, £10 entry with prizes for League places 1 (£100), 2 (£40), 3 (£20), an overall season long prize in terms of highest score of £50 and a TDF winner prize of £30.

I will have a team of my own in this league and will operate the auctions through a segregated email address so I won't see your bids before the deadline and I will submit my bids to a neutral party on the deadline or just to twitter itself so you know I'm not putting all this effort in to win £100... If I do win one of the prizes I'll give it to one of the blog charities anyway.

Thanks for reading and if your interested in taking part or have questions contact me on twitter.

Review of 2014

Inspired by @EddyGecko's review of his badminton year, I thought I would do the same with my 2014 gambling on cycling with all the highs and lows it brings.

Now I only started actually writing a blog in late July which only gives results for the last third of the cycling road season so I will talk about a mix of the blog bets which are all on the googledocs sheet linked on the right hand side and pre blog bets, which 90% of which will be on my twitter (whether or not you want to trawl through all my tweets is debatable though...). In my experience it is imperative to record your bets so that you can have an idea of what your good at and what needs work on, or if you follow the various tipsters about, who is good and who is not.

Initially lets look at the big numbers and then drill down into detail. From late July through the blog I posted up 240 bets in various cycling markets staking 228.2 units with a p/l of +64.28 units which I was really pleased with for such a short period of time. Obviously looking at the spreadsheet you can see that this was largely derived from just a few of those 240 bets but like backing Golf, in cycling there are 200 riders a race and there will be dark periods but keeping the faith eventually paid off.

Now lets look at the full year statistics by bet type. Over the course of the season there are plenty of different bets available, especially during the Grand Tours which is why there are so many options here. I also split out TT and TTT's as for me the race against the clock is a different proposition to a normal stage race.

From the above table its pretty clear where I did well, stage win and each way picks gave me over 75% of my annual profits, which is good as its the most readily available market to bet on.

Particular highlights from the stage win bets were...

Pauline Ferrand Prevot winning the Worlds Road Race at 33/1! such a shame this is basically the only women's race all year you can bet on. I'm going to try and include videos for these as they were such happy moments!

Next up in my personal hall of famers for the year was the much maligned Ben Swift proving that he has a lot more ability than a lot of people give him credit for when he sweeped up a 300/1 (inplay about 15 mins from the end) e/w placing in Milan San Remo. I still think he had the speed to win if his positioning was better, watch him on the left hand side of the road in the sprint.

Anyway those two were my favourite bets of the year, but returning to that table one area which was really disappointing was H2H bets (backing one rider to be classified higher than the other), I put a lot of effort into these over the year for a 0.9% return. To improve on this I'm looking to try and only pick out the really wrong odds and not the more marginal picks, sounds easy but I doubt it will be. 

My best races of the year were the World Championships, Paris Nice, The Three Days of De Panne, and Milan San Remo, with the worst race being the Vuelta where I shipped 30 units, Catalunya was nearly as grim also. I tried to make a nice graph by event but ultimately could not make it intelligible!

And now for the big category that I just had to include is the one that got away. Dario Cataldo stage 14 of the Giro 33/1. Watch the sky man's legs just stop in the sprint v Battaglin, if it looks slow its because it was on cobbles half way up a mountain. This video doesn't do it justice though, Cataldo was always going to beat the Colombian Pantano and Battaglin only caught them up just before this video starts. A great stage though even if I was close to shedding a tear for my P/L graph.

Next year hopefully I can match this year and try and improve on those H2H's! I'm also working on a database which might give me some nice graphs to include on here but that will be dependent on my time commitments. I'll be blogging everything I can but do follow on twitter as that's where inplay and late additional bets will go. If I get decent results then I will want the odd small donation to the charities on here as that was the point in the first place. Have a good xmas and new year and I'll see you for whatever race the bookies put up first from down under in January.

Il Lombardia

The final blog of the year is for the race of the falling leaves, Il Lombardia, a beautiful race with a varying route which is generally set up to encourage the same kind of rider as the winner. This is a bona fide classic right up there with Milan San Remo, Paris Roubaix etc and as such is a big event and a big target for certain riders.

First up lets look at the course, RCS (the race organisers) have moved away from the traditional Muri di Sormanno climb and moved the course to finish in Bergamo.

The main change is that the bulk of the climbing has been moved towards the end of the race which despite not being massive these climbs will hurt and shred the peloton. The passo Ganda is the days main climb averaging 7% over 9km with steeper sections this will be the scene of either lone climbers making a long bid for glory or a strong team trying to drop any riders who can sprint a bit, as the following climbs are more suited to punchier riders rather than pure climbers. If Contador wants to win this race, Tinkoff need to hit this climb very hard.

The final climb in Bergamo is short, has a steep section towards the top and includes some cobbles, I would expect a small bunch to hit this climb of maybe 25-30 riders and the race will be decided here. There will be lots of attacks and a fast descent to the finish, it could be possible for a lone rider win with a gap from the top, it all depends on the co-operation in any group behind. It looks a 50-50 between a solo rider making it with a daring attack or a small select sprint.

To win this race you really need to be in form (and be able to climb) so that is a good place to start.

Valverde yet again has to be favourite for this race, he is so good at maintaining top shape all year long and he proved that last weekend in the world's where he achieved another podium spot (thankfully not a win though). He will be very difficult to drop on the climbs, it is only tactics that might prevent him from winning here, he has a really fast sprint at the end of a hard race but it is likely that he will expected to chase down attacks in the finale. His best option for me is to be the attacker like in San Sebastian, he's just too short to back at 3/1 sadly.

Next up is the new World Champion Michal Kwiatkowski, probably the most talented all round rider in the peloton, he has everything, and is clearly in superb shape. It will be really interesting to see how he goes in this race, the distractions and commitments that winning the world's brings could have taken an edge of his shape but I doubt it, the main concern is how his long climbing is for the passo Ganda, if he holds on over this climb he is a major threat.

Katusha should bring a really strong line up considering their utter domination of Milano Torino midweek where they had four riders in the top 10 including 1st and 3rd with Caruso and Moreno. This race should all be for mr Rodriguez though as he looks to defend a race he has won for the last two years, the problem he will have though is that this new course suits him a lot less than the old one, sure there is a steep climb near the finish but it isn't as long and it will be harder for him to get the same kind of gaps to win as he isn't going to win a sprint finish against Valverde.

There is a sub plot in this race which is the battle to be crowned number one WT rider which for the uninitiated it basically world rankings decided on placings in WT races through the season, it is really close between Contador and Valverde which just this race and a race in China to go. This may be the reason Contador arrives here with a very strong line up which almost looks like a squad for a Grand Tour, if they do not set a searing pace on Ganda then Contador is not in his top shape. He has only done one race since the Vuelta which was Milano Torino on Wednesday which he finished 6th, it sounds like Katusha managed to isolate him and then fired many attacks off the front and he couldn't or wouldn't chase them all down. I expect Contador to top six but not to win as he would have to do that solo from a long way out which is a hard ask, he'll play it safe and bank as many points as possible, therefore I can't back him.

BMC bring Sammy Sanchez to this race, a masterful descender if he has the legs any gap off the top of the final climb could be decisive. He had a really good Vuelta finishing in 6th on the GC and he has previous in this race, I will look towards Sammy if the odds are right.

Another rider to consider is Tony Gallopin, this is a bit left field as he has no where near the climbing abilities of the riders already mentioned but he can hang on and is growing all the time as a classics rider. He is another with a really sharp sprint when required, the race will need to be not too hard on Ganda but he has an outside chance.

Dan Martin is worth considering again here as he's done well here before with a second place and he can handle long races whilst the climbs should not be an issue. He just needs to stay on his bike! I will chance my arm with him one more time in this race and hopefully he can remain crash free and get a good result.

It would be rude not to mention last years World Champion Rui Costa, this course should suit him also but he wasn't particularly noticeable last Sunday and I'm not convinced he is at the top of his form. The same thing can be said for riders like Romain Bardet and Thibaut Pinot.

Finally I want to mention Warren Barguil, he had a great attacking Vuelta taking home 8th in the GC and has only ridden one race since which was the Worlds last sunday where he finished in the top 20, he is coming into this under the radar and may well shine. The climbs shouldn't be a problem and he has a handy sprint also, if the odds are right he will be on my slip.

And last but not least a mention for Niemec as @8aldwin (v knowledgeable on Polish riders) tweeted that he's in shape and likes this race he has to be worth a super outside shot at 200/1.

I've gone for these picks mainly because I see this ending with a small group with attacks flying everywhere and no one team having enough strength to chase everything and there could be a lot of Valverde wheel sucking with cat and mouse tactics from everyone's favourite trio of Spaniards. Therefore I want riders who might just be given a 100m gap which never gets brought in again, it could well end up with a Valverde/Jrod face off but the odds are far too short to back them.


0.5pts ew Dan Martin 20/1 pp
0.4pts ew Warren Barguil 66/1 pp
0.4pts ew Sammy Sanchez 33/1 pp
0.1pt ew Przemyslaw Niemec 200/1 pp



1pt Hesjedal v zaugg, and Zardini v cataldo double 6/4 888sport.


I also have small long odds bets on Rosa and Zardini (and additionals amounts on Barguil and Niemec) on Betfair as the odds were massive and its my last proper betting race of the year!

World Championships RR

The World's title is the most important one day race of the year, the winner gets to wear the rainbow jersey all year long, a jersey of immense pride for winners and will be many riders main target of the second half of the season. As ever the course determines the candidates so lets look at what Ponferrada2014 has in store.

14 laps of an 18.2km circuit for a total distance of nearly 255km, if your in any doubt, that is a long way, particularly on a hilly circuit and is the first key aspect of the route. There have been riders past and present who have incredible skills but who cannot handle a hard race over a distance not many races reach in one day.

The hills of the course are detailed above, the official website makes sure that it points out that these roads are "perfectly asphalted", either way 4300m of climbing over the entire route will sap the legs even if these hills are not hugely challenging in themselves.

Team dynamics play a huge role with "too many chiefs" syndrome prevalent in national teams comprised of riders who normally ride in different colours in the peloton for the rest of the year.

The amount of riders each country can bring to make up their team is determined by performance by riders of that nationality in the peloton. This can leave some contenders from countries where the depth of rider is not great tremendously isolated in a team of three or even just on their own against a team of nine Spaniards or Italians.

9 riders: Spain, France, Italy, Netherlands, Colombia, Australia, Belgium, Poland, Germany, Great Britain

6 riders: Morocco, Venezuela, USA, Iran, Ukraine, Russia, Slovenia, Denmark, Austria, Portugal

3 riders: Eritrea, Algeria, Brazil, Costa Rica, Argentina, Kazakhstan, Japan, Korea, Czech Republic, Switzerland, Norway, Ireland, Romania, Croatia, Estonia, Latvia, New Zealand, Belarus, Canada, Lithuania, Luxembourg, South Africa, Slovakia

1 rider: Ecuador, Sweden, Serbia, Bulgaria, Greece

This race will have a hard pace as it is in a number of teams interest to eliminate sprinters like Degenkolb and Bouhanni, neither of which will be in the lead group come 2 laps to go in my opinion. Spain and Italy will drive the pace for Valverde and Nibali (or one of the other Italian riders, maybe Visconti).

This could well come down to whether the likes of Valverde can shake Gerrans, this course looks to me to be roughly the same sort of "hardness" of the ardennes races like Amstel Gold. Gerrans is hard enough for these kind of races but will he have the support necessary to cover all the attacks that will fly off in the finale? Unless Simon Clarke is on fire then the answer is no. In Gerrans three big one day triumphs this year for Orica he has had a super Pieter Weening to control fields with a strong pace shutting attacks down with ease, in this race Weening is riding for the Netherlands, it is a big loss for the Aussie who I think is a little reminiscent of Strax (10 kudos pts for the first person who gets that). Gerrans was super strong in Canada and is rightly one of the favourites for this race but in the betting markets 4/1 is too short for me to even be close to backing the Australian hope.

There is a name that as much as I'm not a huge fan you really cannot ignore, Valverde, one of the worlds strongest climbers and one day racers with a fast sprint, he may sit on wheels and struggle to see past his own ego but he is bloody consistent. In a home world championships with full support Valverde has to go well here. He could win solo or more likely from a small group of 6 or 7.

What of the phenomenon Peter Sagan? He's had a bit of a disappointing year with less wins than 2013 but he has peppered podiums and generally been marked out of chances to win races. Sagan has absolutely zero form coming into this race after purposely doing jackshit in the vuelta, is this the biggest bluff of form you'll ever see? The bookies don't want to take any chances installing him as 4th favourite, I don't blame them as I would not be surprised to see Sagan romp to a win, he is that classy.

The other bookies favourite is Cancellara, he has ignored the TT to focus on this race, and on form it's hard to see him dropped. As I said in my TTT preview Cancellara is really skinny to allow him to cope with the repeated climbs this race will throw at him, Trek suffered in the TTT but this conditioning could help Cancellara here. After a hard race Cancellara has a great sprint, look at Milan San Remo this year for evidence of that.

The scenario I cannot get away from is 8-10 riders cresting the top of the final climb on the last lap, the winner will come from this group with some major tactics going on. The descent will be rapid and I don't think there will be enough time to get back on for anyone dropped.

So after all that lets go over my picks.

Up first is Ireland's Dan Martin, a perennial contender who knows how to win big races, he's just come out of a strong Vuelta where he was only lacking on the really brutal mountain days and got his first GT top 10. Dan is a great one day racer with the all important decent sprint which gives two options to win and more likely ew placing. At 50/1 ish across the markets I really think that's good value. Sadly Boyles with their 5 places are a bit tighter than the rest at 33/1 and i'll leave it to you to decide if you want the extra places as 60s is available at Hills. For me I'm going to put whatever I'm allowed (not much) with Skybet at 66/1 for four places and the rest with Boyles at 5 places 33/1, I think the extra two places on the standard 3 places gives me a better chance here and if he wins I'll be happy with 33s.

Dan Martin a blended 1pt ew. 0.2pt ew Skybet 66/1 (4 places) and 0.8pt ew 33/1 Boyles (5 places).

Next up is Tim Wellens at 150/1. Wellens is a thoroughbred with a great career ahead of him. He sits within the superstar Belgian team who come in without any apparent strategy apart from dump a bunch of guys who all think they can win in the same team. It will be interesting how that works. I like Wellens and want to have him covered. 0.25pts ew with Boyles.

My next low stake pick is Bauke Mollema, a great one day racer who is incredibly consistent at not winning. But  he does place a lot and therefore 100/1 to 5 places at Boyles is worth a go at. 0.35pts ew at Boyles. It's questionable again who the Dutch go with but its a long time for TomDum to be at his peak whereas I get the sense Mollema is on an upwards trajectory after two 10th places in Canada.

I have to have 1pt on Valverde to win at 10/1 with Boyles as I am picturing a finish a bit like San Sebastian and if I have to sit and watch him ride away from Mollema again (I was on Mollema in San Sebastian) would make me very angry indeed.

There are a lot of riders I haven't mentioned here like Kwiatkowski, GVA, Costa, Gallopin etc but you can't cover every base and I've backed on the strength of the scenario which I think is most likely and riders I know can handle the distance. 

**UPDATE**

Now Boyles has upped the ante to 6 places e/w it seems foolish not to have a cover on Ben Swift at 100s. 0.5pts ew. Swift is probably the best climber of the "sprinters" and can pack a punch after a hard race and I think at 6 places that is a good bet.