Ruta Del Sol Stage 5

The final stage of the Ruta Del Sol has a profile which should keep a lot of riders interested.

The peloton should be pretty knackered from two big cold mountain stages which went to Contador and Froome. This is an up and down stage without any big climbs but the relentless up and down nature will tire the riders, the finish is set just after a characteristic spanish wall, the final climb is about 1.1k at 7% average, this consists of 600m at 3% then 300m at upto 20% and then a flat final 200m.

Obviously a break could make this as Sky will have little interest in taking the stage win, all they will care about is making sure Contador does not nick a couple of seconds. However a break will need some serious firepower as I think Movistar and Giant will want to set this up for Lobato and Degenkolb, the run in to that last 1.1km will also be extremely rapid as all the teams with GC riders will be fighting for position.

The teams will need to fully back their punchy sprinters and have enough numbers to control late attacks. I can see Sky setting a harsh pace up that 300m to prevent a Bertie attack, then Movistar will shepherd Lobato up the climb as they have a really strong team to do that and then he will have the most team mates to get the win. I've backed him at 9/2 with 1pt.

I've also backed Grega Bole at 40/1 0.5pt ew at BV, he is fast enough to podium and should cope with the climb no problem, the climb is a bit like that at Hatta Dam a few weeks ago when Degenkolb won. I would back Degenkolb but I'm worried that he will be isolated and swamped as Giant have had a hard week with crashes and Geschke has been in breaks the last two days and I would of thought he'd need a fresh Geschke to keep him in place.


A couple of other small interests are Ligthart who is in great form and I'm struggling to understand why he is in three figures here. 0.25pt ew at 150s and also Silvestre at 150s for similar reasons, both Bet365

Track World Champs Guest blog

Hi All, seeming as PP/Skybet have put up odds for the track world champs I thought I would try and find a decent preview for the events. I found no such thing so put out the word on twitter, and a follower who knows his stuff re non road cycling (knows a fair bit re the road stuff too!) sent me his thoughts, he's staying anonymous but I'm going to post up his summary of each event the day before the event starts (ie the day before qualifying/finals). It's totally up to you whether you bet on these or not (the odds may well be pretty different now anyway) but I thought the summaries where interesting enough as general reading.

Men’s Team Sprint

This could be really exciting. Lots of big names and really tight margins mean that any mistakes could mean the difference between several places.

New Zealand are favourites, having won last year and having won at the Commonwealths. However, that same winning team of Mitchell/Webster/Dawkins has been turned over at other World Cup events by Germany, Australia (Jay-co) and GB.

Germany are consistently good; no matter who they have in their team and they always seem to do well. Winners in 2010, 2011, 2013 and second last year - I’m going to go for them to win in 2015.

GB have brought Scottish youngster Callum Skinner (who dominated the sprint events at the Nationals) in to the squad. Hindes, Kenny and Skinner seem to be a sound unit; they were quickest in qualification and won in Guadalajara, but couldn’t back it up in London. However, I’d say they’re stronger than they were at the Commonwealths and in with a shout at 33/1.

Women’s team sprint

Likely to be close between the Germans and the Chinese. The races are always incredibly tight, separated by 1000’s of a second. The Germans won out last year, but were trumped by the Chinese in London by 0.014. I’ll go for the Germans to win again, although having beaten Welte and Vogel in the Euros, the Russians might be worth an outside shot at 18/1.

Men’s Team Pursuit

Although the team pursuit appears on the World Cup circuit, in the men’s event at least, most of those competing aren’t the ‘A’ teams. For the World Champs, the likes of GB, Australia and Denmark get to draft in their big guns. That means form doesn’t really count for much, not that it matters much, Australia win whoever they put in!

Australia will walk it – they were easily fastest last year and this year they can count on Bobridge to boot.

Women’s team pursuit

GB haven’t lost a team pursuit in years. The 2015 Worlds don’t look like the place where they’ll lose that record.


*******

Men’s Keirin

Plenty of riders in with a shout due to the rather chaotic nature of the racing – there have been 4 different winners in 4 stops in the Worlds/World Cup in the past year.

Pervis is the current World Champ. He’s mostly been racing Keirins in Japan (if you have a spare ½ hour, this is an absolutely fascinating programme on his exploits: 

but he has made time to race a couple of the World Cups. In Cali last month he didn’t qualify out of the 1^st round after being taken out in a crash and he didn’t qualify out of the first round in London either.

The most consistent performer over the past year has been Fabian Puerta. 2^nd at last year’s Worlds, 3^rd in Guadalajara, 2^nd in London and he looked impressive winning the last round in Cali leading for much of the last 3 laps. Looks good value at 9/1, but Pervis always steps up for the Worlds.

Women’s 500m TT

This was exceptionally tight last year, with ½ second separating the top 6. Traditionally a shoot-out between Welte and Meares, I can’t see this year being that different – maybe Voinova coming through to challenge. Still, I’ll go for Welte to win.

Men’s Kilo

Another event that only turns up at major champs, so difficult to apply any sort of form. Pervis beat Eilers last year by 0.6s, with the pair of them being the only ones to go sub-1m. Pervis is the world record holder and he’s the class act in the field. Provided he’s in form, he should win.

Puerta’s propensity to go long in the Keirin and his form over the last year means that although he only got 6^th last year (1:01), he’s probably not a bad shout to go better this year. He has gone sub-1m in the past, so looks a good price at 25/1, but again, no e/w.

*******

Mens Sprint

Sprinting is really open right now; Pervis, Baugé, Glaetzer, Webster, Kenny, Botticher, Hoogland, Dmitriev and Puerta are all in with decent shouts. If odds do re-appear, I’d be looking for the value in one of those.

 

There's an element of 'stick-a-pin-in-the-sprinter', because it is so close and tactics and luck come in to it. So looking for a bit of value. Sam Webster is Commonwealth sprint champ, part of the NZ sprint team that destroyed everyone (but were relegated) a few days ago. Clearly going well, likely miffed at having given up gold in the team event and reckon he's got as good a chance as anyone. He's currently 40/1 with e/w available.

Women’s Omnium

Sarah Hammer has been World Champ for the last two years and won fairly convincingly last year, winning 3 of the 6 events. Laura Trott has finished behind her for the last two years. With Hammer’s dominance in the longer endurance events, I think it will be a repeat for 2015. Surprisingly, Hammer’s only second favourite at 5/2.

Tour of Oman

The third and final of the middle east tours visits Oman, which provides a completely different style of race than last weeks windfest in Qatar. Unlike Qatar, Oman has some hills and a mountain and it takes full use of them with an interesting route providing something for sprinters, puncheurs, and pure climbers.

The GC in Oman is going to be decided by Green Mountain, stage 4 finishes at the summit of what is definitely a hard climb.

Green mountain is 5.7km at over 10% average, this is a big test and will be won by a pure climber. Previous winners have been Gesink, Nibali, Jrod, and Froome last year. Below is highlights from last years summit finish where Froome won with a blistering attack that no one could go with.

There are stage win bonuses through all the stages in the race, the one that potentially could shape the GC a little is stage 5 to the Ministry of Housing, an exciting stage tackling some short sharp climbs towards the finish has seen small groups contest the stage win in the last few years, with Froome winning from Contador and Jrod in 2013 and Sagan winning from Uran and Nibali in 2014. Now Sagan has a stronger team at his disposal it's hard to see how he doesn't win this again this year so that limits the bonuses available to the GC men. Also there are riders like Greg Van Avermaet, Adam Blythe and Sonny Colbrelli who might hoover up bonus seconds also.

So lets focus on the climbers that could win this race on Green Mountain and take the tour overall. I'm including the mountain domestiques for each contender as I'm intrigued about who will make the race this year.

Astana - Leader: Vincenzo Nibali, Support: Cataldo, Fuglsang, Lutsenko

Last year's Tour de France winner arrives in Oman having done Dubai a couple of weeks ago in support of Lutsenko, he has a really paired down schedule this year and has good memories of this race having won on Green Mountain in 2012, albeit versus a much weaker field than he will find this year. He should get support on the climb from new signing Cataldo, Fuglsang and Lutsenko. He has spoken about wanting to win in Oman and Astana's money men will want a good performance from him here for several reasons; 1) Astana are rumoured to be courting new middle east sponsors and they haven't shone yet in Dubai or Qatar, 2) They need to show off their TDF champion in Nibali, he isn't doing a particularly busy schedule and they pay him a fair whack, pressure will surely have been applied for a good performance here.

BMC - Leader: Tejay Van Garderen, Support: Velits, Caruso, De Marchi, Hermans

2nd place man from last year TJ returns to Oman, the climb of Green Mountain suits him as it's relatively constant and not constantly changing percentages, watch last years video of the stage, he TT's up behind Froome really impressively. Van Garderen is a really good rider who has the ability to contend in a grand tour, he does need to take a step up and start actually winning at the highest level more regularly. He has really strong support with 4 good climbers to cover early attacks and shelter him to the higher reaches of the climb.

Tinkoff-Saxo - Leader: Rafal Majka, Support: Rogers, Beltran

Majka is a weird one. He seems to blow really hot and cold, for a couple of weeks last year he was probably the best climber out there, the last week of the tour de france he got two wins and a third on summit finishes and then won the Tour of Poland a couple of weeks later. This after complaining about starting the race as he was tired from the Giro (which was his target race) where he finished 6th overall. If he has that late tour form then he will be really hard to beat. The team is a bit split with support for Sagan and a couple of guys for Majka in Rogers and Beltran so he could well be isolated early on up Green Mountain. Tinkoff are making bullish noises about Rafal's form and he certainly has the pedigree to be a strong contender even if it is his first race of the year.

Katusha - Leader: Joaquim Rodriguez, Support: Moreno

Jrod likes this race and in particular likes Green Mountain, he has won up here before and finished 2nd and 7th in other years. Like Nibali he rode Dubai but did not do a lot, it's pretty hard to read his form and Katusha have got more riders in support of Kristoff for the sprints than for Jrod, who can rely, as ever, on Dani Moreno. Actually Dani might have a shot here if the stage up Green Mountain gets defensive and is ridden at a slower pace as he showed OK form in Argentina a few weeks ago.

Movistar - Leader: Alejandro Valverde, Support: Amador

Valverde comes into this race with his usual very good form, he seems to never have races where he isn't challenging for the win, and I'd expect this to be no different. His Movistar squad looks really week and I'm expecting him to be isolated up Green Mountain, despite his form this year like all the other riders here a decent mountain has yet to be tackled, but he can not be discounted and will be one of the favourites.

FDJ - Leader: Thibaut Pinot, Support: Jeannesson, Morabito

An interesting year awaits Thibaut Pinot as a lot more expectation is at his door after a strong Tour de France last year, he showed a positive sign of his condition with a solid time trial in Etoile de Besseges last week where he got 10th in a discipline which is not his strength, although he is rapidly improving in TTs. The arrival of Morabito is a good signing and will help position Pinot to be in the right place at the right times. 

SKY - Leader: Wout Poels/Leopold Konig, Support: Lopez, Pate, Diegnan, Earle

This should be the first time Poels get to lead at Sky and possibly his only chance all year as he's tracking Froome's schedule following this. The motivations here are obvious, Sky don't really give riders many opportunities to shine outside of the top guys and Poels should be in shape to take advantage. As Konig is lining up for Sky as well I'm assuming they will be joint leading the team, Konig looked good in Mallorca and for me is probably better than Poels. What interests me here is that this should be an attacking Sky, if they do a standard Sky train up the lower reaches of Green Mountain I won't be surprised, just disappointed. They do not need to and I'm not sure they have the support personnel here to pull that off. 

MTN-Qhubeka - Leader: Jacques Janse van Rensburg/Louis Meintjes

I'm including the MTN guys in their own section as they come in with interesting comments form. The African championship races happen in Feb and JJvR arrives as the new SA champ, and stating that this race is one of his targets for the year. He isn't in the league of some of the other riders mentioned above but if he is at his peak he could do well. Meintjes is a future superstar climber, and whilst still young is already starting to rack up good performances, he arrives as the African continental champion which he won last week and he will be looking to take another leap forward this year.

A few other teams come in with good climbers but for whom this maybe too early in their schedule; Arredondo (Trek), Frank (IAM), Barguil (Giant-Alpecin), Costa (Lampre), these riders could contend if they have form but it's there first racing of the year and they are all a bit cautious on their form levels.

As Sky come into this race without Froome or Porte it will be interesting how they approach the race. Movistar and Katusha do not have the personnel to control. I think the race will be made by Tinkoff-Saxo and BMC. It will be upto every team's leader to drop Valverde to win this race as he should win any "sprint" at the top of Green Mountain. Dropping Valverde is not an easy thing to do, he is seemingly always in form, however he doesn't have a lot of support from his squad here and he chose not to take the start of the last stage in Qatar citing health issues which are a concern. 

Looking at the odds I think Valverde is a bit short at 2/1, and Nibali is theoretically the best climber here and he's also a savage descender which should help in the stage to the Ministry. Therefore I'm happy to go 1.5pt at 9/2 for him to take out the GC.

Nothing else really appeals at the prices

For stage 1 I have backed Nacer Bouhanni at 11/1 for 1pt win (currently 7's but still backable). He showed signs of form in that last Qatar stage, Bouhanni in form wins this stage.

Tour of Qatar

The second of the trio of Middle East races is the Tour of Qatar. No punchy climbs here, instead 5 flat stages with a short TT. The big deal here is the wind, Qatar's exposed peninsular means the Tour is designed to take full advantage of any wind it can, the expected echelons could completely determine this race.

However there are 10, 6, 4 seconds available at the finish of each of the flat stages so the sprinters have a lot of bonus seconds available if they can control the stages and then try and hang on against the TT specialists.

The most important aspect here is the wind, and as ever Qatar will not disappoint with some really windy days forecast, directionally it doesn't look ideal for echelons versus the route of the stages but I think it is likely that we get a stage determined by echelons, or at least reduced bunch finishes of say 50 riders with the rest cut off by echelons.

The TT is 10.9 km and that should give the TT specialists 20-30 seconds over sprinters who can TT quite well like Marcel Kittel and Arnaud Demare.

There is a really stellar line up of riders here and some interesting team selections, some teams have very little sprint talent but are loaded with Classics specialists who will be going full tilt to try and break the stages up and eliminate sprinters. There are plenty of direction changes in these stages and riders will have to be really alert to make sure they are in position whenever echelon racing could happen, this makes for nervous racing and a hard fast week.

The sprint teams are as follows;

Sprint focussed; Giant-Alpecin (Kittel), Cofidis (Bouhanni), Bora (Bennett), MTN (Bos), Katusha (Kristoff), FDJ (Demare)

The problem Giant are going to have is who works with them to control the race for sprints, I suspect Cofidis and Katusha will but I don't think they will have enough firepower to not suffer via an untimely echelon at some point in the 4 stages which could be affected (the last stage should be more sheltered from the wind).

As going against these teams are some real classics powerhouses, teams who will suddenly hit the front in concert in the middle of a stage when there is some crosswind with a surge of power. One rider mid pack loses the wheel infront and a gap of 1 bike length becomes 20 bike lengths and then 30 seconds worth and the bunch is split.

Teams who will attempt this include; Astana, BMC, Etixx - Quickstep, Orica, Sky, Tinkoff, and Trek.
These teams have an array of brilliant riders who I think should break this race at some point in those stages. Therefore I will be restricting my GC picks to riders within these strong teams who have more chance of being the right side of an echelon.

The other factors in GC picks is it is really useful to have some sprint speed to try and get some bonus seconds at the finish and mid race, and also be able to do a good TT performance.

Contenders for GC then in my mind are as follows;

Astana - Westra, Boom
BMC - Gilbert, GVA (not the best of friends these two, will be interesting who leads)
Etixx-Quickstep - Vandenbergh, Van Keirsbulck, Terpstra, Boonen
FDJ - Demare
IAM - Haussler
Orica - Lancaster, Howard
Katusha - Kristoff
Sky - Wiggins, Stannard
Tinkoff - Sagan, Breschel, Bodnar
Trek - Cancellara, Steegmans

I would include EBH in this list, but MTN's team looks really weak apart from for sprint finishes when they have Bos, Sbaragli and EBH. They could detract from each other and EBH's GC chances by going with Bos in the sprints.

I'm not going to go through each candidate as any of the above could win this race in my mind.

My number one candidate is Fabian Cancellara, now each year Fabian doesn't really bother too much with this race and that is the only reason he is not a shorter price. However this year he has been making noises about wanting to win early in the season and more often, he got involved in a sprint in Mallorca when normally he would not risk a sprint for fear of a silly crash. I think this could indicate he will be in Qatar to win, Trek bring a strong team and Cancellara should be one of the fastest in the time trial. He also has a strong sprint at the end of hard stages and it would not be a surprise to see him pick up bonus seconds with podium placings or mid stage. At 19/1 with Ladbrokes I think I'll throw 1.5pt on him to win here.



Stage 1 (as tweeted earlier)

Looks like a headwind or cross headwind all day which makes a sprint more likely. Cross wind in the final 10k or so but that should be when the various sprint trains are fighting hard for position so I think it will be a sprint.

Kittel 2pts win at 15/8

Sam Bennett to bt Heinrich Haussler 1pt 5/4 PP
Arnaud Demare to bt Kristoff 1pt 5/6 365

The Dubai Tour

Back for it's second year, the Dubai Tour is the start of the middle east mini season which takes in the scenic landscapes of Dubai, Oman and Qatar. Last years Dubai Tour was essentially three sprints for Kittel to win and a time trial, the small time bonuses at the finish meant that the TT was all important and Taylor Phinney took it out for the stage and GC win.

This years Dubai Tour loses the TT which I always think is a bit of a shame, and tries to shake it up a bit. Four stages, 3 flat, and one hill finish. The time bonuses are upped as well to 10, 6, 4 seconds at the finish, and 3, 2, 1 seconds at the intermediate sprints.

The riders like going out to the middle east for a couple of reasons, the stages are hard and fast as in the exposed roads any wind can cause echelons very quickly, teams have to fight for position constantly which gives them good practice for the classic season in Europe where such skills are essential. In addition the weather is good - nobody's going to get a chill, the hotels are nice and they can stay in the same hotel all week. Therefore it's a loaded field with some star names which we'll come to later.

Here are profiles of the stages. Stage 1, 3, 4 will be sprints unless there is some wind or the peloton is a touch lazy in chasing down breaks. Stage 2 will be interesting as the peloton goes through some lumpy terrain finishing up at Hatta Dam.

Stage 1

Stage 2

Stage 3

Stage 4

The GC in this race is going to be decided by three things. Time Bonuses, Echelons, and that Hill Finish. The aspect which is probably most important to look at is this new hill climb in Hatta. According to CS who run a very handy website stage 3 contains two 10% climbs, one 7% and parts of the finish are 17%, obviously they are short sharp efforts but it will cut some riders out of the running for GC.

Echelons are clearly hard to predict as the weather is never going to be a certainty even if you shut down all the subways (it's a prediction people, not a guarantee!), the only thing you can do is look at teams who have the riders who cope well and have the strength to stay at the front as much as possible.

Then there is the time bonuses. Lets say there are 3 sprint stages with 30 secs of bonuses to be shared about. Can any one rider monopolise these ala Kittel and then hang on up the 200m climb at the finish? Well the sprinters present are;

Cavendish (Etixx), Guardini (Astana), Ruffoni (Bardiani), Lobato (Movistar), Degenkolb/Mezgec (Giant), Viviani/Swift (Sky), Sagan oh wait its Juraj not Peter (sorry Juraj) and that's pretty much it. 

At this stage in the season it's really hard to get a tell for form on some of these riders as we simply havn't seen them race, however Cav comes in with San Luis in his legs and Lobato arrives having shone down under. Guardini tends to be sharp at the start of the season and is dangerous on stages where he doesn't have to go uphill. 

My opinion here is that the Dubai Tour is going to be won by someone with a fast sprint, I am not convinced by this "Hill Climb", it looks like it is about 200m at the end at 10-15% average. This will be interesting, some riders will just go backwards in gradients like that, but the road should be good quality and most should be at the finish. It's for a mix between explosive ardennes riders and sprinters who can cope with that kind of rise.

This from tracks for bikers shows the average percentage per kilometer;

But here is the last kilometer in more detail;

The speed into this last 250m will be extremely quick and positioning will be absolutely vital. Start this from 20th and you will not win.

My GC contenders are;

AG2R: Bakelants

Astana: Nibali, Boom

Bardiani: Battaglin

BMC: Gilbert

CCC: Bole

Movistar: Valverde, Lobato

Katusha: Chernetskii, Vicioso

Sky: Swift, Thomas

UHC: Ratto

Etixx: Cavendish

This race is Movistar's to lose. They have the two form riders, first Lobato who was so impressive down under where he was basically unbeatable into Stirling, plus he should be able to get bonus seconds here and there. Alternatively if it's too much for Lobato or Valverde pulls rank with his massive ego then this should suit him well also, if I'm Movistar's DS then you support both and see how they go into stage 3.

Another interesting candidate who might have hefty odds is Grega Bole of CCC, he climbed really well in Mallorca and has a fast finish. He's new to CCC but has some pedigree from years past and he'll have a team of sturdy Poles to get him into position. I'm not too sure how he will cope with crosswinds if they arise and is unlikely to take many bonus seconds in the pure sprints like Lobato could but if the price is right... The price wasn't right unfortunately.

A similar candidate to Bole is Daniele Ratto who has suffered from the merging of Cannondale with Garmin and steps down a rung to the United Healthcare Team who have recruited some handy riders. Ratto is faster than he looks and is good at hill sprints. I want three figure odds but if available I'll be on Daniele to surprise, he should certainly be motivated.

******************UPDATE it appears Jan is no longer on the startlist which is annoying but should have stake returned as a DNS ***************************************************************

Yet another rider I like to go well here is Jan Bakelants, I don't quite know why Etixx got rid of him or if he chose to leave, but moving to AG2R is in my view a great place for him to be, he must be their leader in pretty much all one day races. Bakelants has a good track record up punchy climbs and he could be a real threat. I cannot have Gilbert at 4/1 and Bakelants at 125/1 when there isn't a huge gulf between them.

Bets 

0.3 pt ew Daniele Ratto 250/1 Ladbrokes (back to 80s)

****NOW A DNS**** 0.5 pt ew Jan Bakelants 

1 pt JJ Lobato WIN 8/1 Betvictor

A couple of one day races...

Quick blog for GP Marseilles and the Cadel Ocean Race which the bookies have obliged and priced up.

As ever in these early season races it is hard to know who is in shape and who is not. But there is more of a tell for the Cadel Evans Great Ocean Road Race down under. The inaugural edition marks the retirement of Cadel Evans and he part designed the course, it takes in aspects of the Worlds RR course from a few years ago when a small bunch of hardened sprinters fought out the win with mighty Thor Hushovd taking the rainbow stripes.

The course is neither as long or as hard as that route though so I think the most likely result is another reduced sprint. One concern for this scenario is BMC with Cadel who don't have a sprinter really so they will be attacking all over the place, but there are enough teams with an interest in a sprint to control the race if they want to. Forecasts for the race also suggest that there's going to be hefty south westerly wind which might break things up a bit and I would want to back a rider from a strong squad as BMC are likely to put the hammer down whenever there is a chance to break the race up.

The sprint options are Caleb Ewan, Sam Spokes, Tyler Farrar or Matt Goss for MTN, Heinrich Haussler, Eugenio Alafaci, Mark Renshaw or Gianni Meersman for Etixx.

Caleb Ewan is the form rider out of these options, OK he lost to Haussler in the Aussie Road Race but I'm still not convinced by him, he always seems to have an excuse. So I've had 1pt on Caleb to win at 4/1 (Now 7/2 at PP, BV). Ewan is a lot more than a pure sprinter and I have no doubts that he can cope with the course and by all accounts he has stronger form now than a couple of weeks ago when he looked frankly frighteningly good.

I have my eye on a couple of other riders but not at the prices available, hopefully other bookies will price up later in the day and I'll put another pick up.



Marseilles is a european rider free for all, it could be a solo winner, could be a reduced sprint, could be a full sprint. It looks like headwind wind conditions should favour the bunch sprint scenario so I'm going to go with a rider I think could have a big year. Roy Jans of Wanty, last year he came out of the starting blocks for year hard and if he survives the climbs, which I think is touch and go but if the race goes the way I think it might he will, he is one of, if not the fastest rider here. 10/1 at BV is too tempting so I'm having 0.8pt WIN. The 8/1 at PP is fine too.


SUMMARY

Cadel Ocean Race - 1pt Caleb Ewan 7/2 WIN, BV/PP


Marseilles - 0.8pt Roy Jans 10/1 WIN, BV (or 8/1 at PP)

TDU Stage 2

This is the annual uphill sprint into Stirling that the TDU graces us with every year.

This is a pretty consistent profile and it gives us a mixed sprint between the fast GC men looking for bonus seconds and sprinters who can cope with a bit of a hill. Now to get an idea of the contenders we do not have to go very far, we just need to look at the results from the last few years....

What is pretty clear is you have to be proper fast to get a win here, but there is also a place for riders who are not out and out sprinters or even known as sprinters, look at the last two winners, in a flat sprint Slagter gets beat by Goss and Ulissi loses to Gerrans.

Candidates are as follows;

Gianni Meersman, JJ Lobato, Nathan Haas, Daryl Impey, Simon Geschke, TomDum, Cadel Evans, SamDum, and newly crowned Aussie champ Heinrich Haussler.

First up lets look at Nathan Haas, if I'd backed him for GC I'd be looking at that table above and thinking "erm, where is Haas?" this is one of the stages where he has to get bonus seconds on the purer climbers. Haas came 5th in the GC in this race last year yet he was 18th in the stage into Stirling. No excuse, he's not backable.

Daryl Impey is the early bookmakers favourite and for good reason, he did the leadout for Gerrans last year and left the peloton gasping whilst still getting 10th, but does he have the top speed to win this? Impey is 30 years old and has not won many races down the years, admittedly he is working for others a lot of the time. Too short a price to back. However Orica will look to devastate the peloton to set him up as they will know that he won't win a sprint v anyone really quick but he is worth considering.

Giant bring a duo of fastish punchy riders in Geschke and TomDum. Of these two I prefer TomDum, he has a very surprising sprint and the races in Canada last year showed that he can compete in hard sprints.

Cadel Evans can never be discounted and I'd quite like to see him go well, he got 3rd here last year and I wouldn't be surprised if he repeats that.

Haussler is the Aussie RR champ and is talking himself up for this stage. However I don't think I can back him on the basis of beating a tired 20 year old from a break in that race.

Yet again I like Meersman, I know he can climb at World Tour pace and he is very very fast, he has won uphill finishes like this before and won races where he's basically been the only fast rider left.

Lobato is a huge danger he's looked fast on the flat and his wins have mostly come on finishes similar to this. In the tour de wallonie last year he beat meersman and with meersman he has to be joint favourite.

Looking at how the books are currently I think TomDum is the standout bet at 50s with bet victor and I've had half a point ew.

I will return later once my train eventually gets me home!

Tom Dumoulin 0.5pts ew 50/1 (min odds I would take are 25/1).

***UPDATE***

I'm adding Lorenzo Manzin at 200/1 (back till under 100/1), he's very young but is good on these finishes and I fancy having a small long shot play at 0.1pt ew at Betvictor.