Track World Champs Guest blog

Hi All, seeming as PP/Skybet have put up odds for the track world champs I thought I would try and find a decent preview for the events. I found no such thing so put out the word on twitter, and a follower who knows his stuff re non road cycling (knows a fair bit re the road stuff too!) sent me his thoughts, he's staying anonymous but I'm going to post up his summary of each event the day before the event starts (ie the day before qualifying/finals). It's totally up to you whether you bet on these or not (the odds may well be pretty different now anyway) but I thought the summaries where interesting enough as general reading.

Men’s Team Sprint

This could be really exciting. Lots of big names and really tight margins mean that any mistakes could mean the difference between several places.

New Zealand are favourites, having won last year and having won at the Commonwealths. However, that same winning team of Mitchell/Webster/Dawkins has been turned over at other World Cup events by Germany, Australia (Jay-co) and GB.

Germany are consistently good; no matter who they have in their team and they always seem to do well. Winners in 2010, 2011, 2013 and second last year - I’m going to go for them to win in 2015.

GB have brought Scottish youngster Callum Skinner (who dominated the sprint events at the Nationals) in to the squad. Hindes, Kenny and Skinner seem to be a sound unit; they were quickest in qualification and won in Guadalajara, but couldn’t back it up in London. However, I’d say they’re stronger than they were at the Commonwealths and in with a shout at 33/1.

Women’s team sprint

Likely to be close between the Germans and the Chinese. The races are always incredibly tight, separated by 1000’s of a second. The Germans won out last year, but were trumped by the Chinese in London by 0.014. I’ll go for the Germans to win again, although having beaten Welte and Vogel in the Euros, the Russians might be worth an outside shot at 18/1.

Men’s Team Pursuit

Although the team pursuit appears on the World Cup circuit, in the men’s event at least, most of those competing aren’t the ‘A’ teams. For the World Champs, the likes of GB, Australia and Denmark get to draft in their big guns. That means form doesn’t really count for much, not that it matters much, Australia win whoever they put in!

Australia will walk it – they were easily fastest last year and this year they can count on Bobridge to boot.

Women’s team pursuit

GB haven’t lost a team pursuit in years. The 2015 Worlds don’t look like the place where they’ll lose that record.


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Men’s Keirin

Plenty of riders in with a shout due to the rather chaotic nature of the racing – there have been 4 different winners in 4 stops in the Worlds/World Cup in the past year.

Pervis is the current World Champ. He’s mostly been racing Keirins in Japan (if you have a spare ½ hour, this is an absolutely fascinating programme on his exploits: 

but he has made time to race a couple of the World Cups. In Cali last month he didn’t qualify out of the 1^st round after being taken out in a crash and he didn’t qualify out of the first round in London either.

The most consistent performer over the past year has been Fabian Puerta. 2^nd at last year’s Worlds, 3^rd in Guadalajara, 2^nd in London and he looked impressive winning the last round in Cali leading for much of the last 3 laps. Looks good value at 9/1, but Pervis always steps up for the Worlds.

Women’s 500m TT

This was exceptionally tight last year, with ½ second separating the top 6. Traditionally a shoot-out between Welte and Meares, I can’t see this year being that different – maybe Voinova coming through to challenge. Still, I’ll go for Welte to win.

Men’s Kilo

Another event that only turns up at major champs, so difficult to apply any sort of form. Pervis beat Eilers last year by 0.6s, with the pair of them being the only ones to go sub-1m. Pervis is the world record holder and he’s the class act in the field. Provided he’s in form, he should win.

Puerta’s propensity to go long in the Keirin and his form over the last year means that although he only got 6^th last year (1:01), he’s probably not a bad shout to go better this year. He has gone sub-1m in the past, so looks a good price at 25/1, but again, no e/w.

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Mens Sprint

Sprinting is really open right now; Pervis, Baugé, Glaetzer, Webster, Kenny, Botticher, Hoogland, Dmitriev and Puerta are all in with decent shouts. If odds do re-appear, I’d be looking for the value in one of those.

 

There's an element of 'stick-a-pin-in-the-sprinter', because it is so close and tactics and luck come in to it. So looking for a bit of value. Sam Webster is Commonwealth sprint champ, part of the NZ sprint team that destroyed everyone (but were relegated) a few days ago. Clearly going well, likely miffed at having given up gold in the team event and reckon he's got as good a chance as anyone. He's currently 40/1 with e/w available.

Women’s Omnium

Sarah Hammer has been World Champ for the last two years and won fairly convincingly last year, winning 3 of the 6 events. Laura Trott has finished behind her for the last two years. With Hammer’s dominance in the longer endurance events, I think it will be a repeat for 2015. Surprisingly, Hammer’s only second favourite at 5/2.