Padsbets Fantasy Cycling

Oh my gosh what am I doing? You'll have to do endless excel work in your free time!

This thought crossed my mind as I was adjusting my database and building out an excel spreadsheet to enable a fantasy cycling league administered by my good self...

But despite this I am proposing the following, an auction based fantasy cycling competition based around a points system tweaked slightly from PCS and consisting of all 2.1 and higher races from across the globe for the whole season. The difference between PCS's rankings and mine are I have amalgamated WT one day race points for simplicity, downgraded lower places in 1.1 one day races and lowered the worlds TT points as I think they are over stated.

The league will be H2H with a fixture list drawn up randomly by me, I have split up the season into 46 race "weeks" and therefore we will need 24 teams. However if there is less interest then I will adjust to the number of entrants much like the scottish football divisions.

This doc HERE has the season schedule and my points system.


There will be rounds of auctions before the season starts where sealed bids will be submitted for your chosen riders and the highest bid will get the rider. There will be a budget of 100 and your team will not be allowed to go over this budget in the pre season auction rounds. When submitting your bids you will assign a preference order so if you win too many bids and your team goes over budget or number of riders this is how the riders you end up with will be determined.

Before the first deadline, I will randomly assign each team a number between 1 and 24. This will determine which team will win the auction for a player if there are two bids that tie for the highest amount. The lower of the two numbers will win. After each round, the order will reverse, i.e. the team that was assigned 24 at the start will become 1 for the 2nd round of bidding, and team 1 at the start will become team 24.

The minimum bid is $0. If you bid $0 for a player, if no other team makes a bid for that player, you will win the auction and get the player for free.

Bids can be made in increments of 0.1. So, a bid of $4.5 or $4.6 would be acceptable, but a bid of $4.55 is not.

There will be 5 transfer windows through the season at crucial stages (marked in yellow on the googledoc), the mechanics of which I will detail later once teams are established.

I am proposing 24 teams of 12 riders each, £10 entry with prizes for League places 1 (£100), 2 (£40), 3 (£20), an overall season long prize in terms of highest score of £50 and a TDF winner prize of £30.

I will have a team of my own in this league and will operate the auctions through a segregated email address so I won't see your bids before the deadline and I will submit my bids to a neutral party on the deadline or just to twitter itself so you know I'm not putting all this effort in to win £100... If I do win one of the prizes I'll give it to one of the blog charities anyway.

Thanks for reading and if your interested in taking part or have questions contact me on twitter.

Review of 2014

Inspired by @EddyGecko's review of his badminton year, I thought I would do the same with my 2014 gambling on cycling with all the highs and lows it brings.

Now I only started actually writing a blog in late July which only gives results for the last third of the cycling road season so I will talk about a mix of the blog bets which are all on the googledocs sheet linked on the right hand side and pre blog bets, which 90% of which will be on my twitter (whether or not you want to trawl through all my tweets is debatable though...). In my experience it is imperative to record your bets so that you can have an idea of what your good at and what needs work on, or if you follow the various tipsters about, who is good and who is not.

Initially lets look at the big numbers and then drill down into detail. From late July through the blog I posted up 240 bets in various cycling markets staking 228.2 units with a p/l of +64.28 units which I was really pleased with for such a short period of time. Obviously looking at the spreadsheet you can see that this was largely derived from just a few of those 240 bets but like backing Golf, in cycling there are 200 riders a race and there will be dark periods but keeping the faith eventually paid off.

Now lets look at the full year statistics by bet type. Over the course of the season there are plenty of different bets available, especially during the Grand Tours which is why there are so many options here. I also split out TT and TTT's as for me the race against the clock is a different proposition to a normal stage race.

From the above table its pretty clear where I did well, stage win and each way picks gave me over 75% of my annual profits, which is good as its the most readily available market to bet on.

Particular highlights from the stage win bets were...

Pauline Ferrand Prevot winning the Worlds Road Race at 33/1! such a shame this is basically the only women's race all year you can bet on. I'm going to try and include videos for these as they were such happy moments!

Next up in my personal hall of famers for the year was the much maligned Ben Swift proving that he has a lot more ability than a lot of people give him credit for when he sweeped up a 300/1 (inplay about 15 mins from the end) e/w placing in Milan San Remo. I still think he had the speed to win if his positioning was better, watch him on the left hand side of the road in the sprint.

Anyway those two were my favourite bets of the year, but returning to that table one area which was really disappointing was H2H bets (backing one rider to be classified higher than the other), I put a lot of effort into these over the year for a 0.9% return. To improve on this I'm looking to try and only pick out the really wrong odds and not the more marginal picks, sounds easy but I doubt it will be. 

My best races of the year were the World Championships, Paris Nice, The Three Days of De Panne, and Milan San Remo, with the worst race being the Vuelta where I shipped 30 units, Catalunya was nearly as grim also. I tried to make a nice graph by event but ultimately could not make it intelligible!

And now for the big category that I just had to include is the one that got away. Dario Cataldo stage 14 of the Giro 33/1. Watch the sky man's legs just stop in the sprint v Battaglin, if it looks slow its because it was on cobbles half way up a mountain. This video doesn't do it justice though, Cataldo was always going to beat the Colombian Pantano and Battaglin only caught them up just before this video starts. A great stage though even if I was close to shedding a tear for my P/L graph.

Next year hopefully I can match this year and try and improve on those H2H's! I'm also working on a database which might give me some nice graphs to include on here but that will be dependent on my time commitments. I'll be blogging everything I can but do follow on twitter as that's where inplay and late additional bets will go. If I get decent results then I will want the odd small donation to the charities on here as that was the point in the first place. Have a good xmas and new year and I'll see you for whatever race the bookies put up first from down under in January.

Il Lombardia

The final blog of the year is for the race of the falling leaves, Il Lombardia, a beautiful race with a varying route which is generally set up to encourage the same kind of rider as the winner. This is a bona fide classic right up there with Milan San Remo, Paris Roubaix etc and as such is a big event and a big target for certain riders.

First up lets look at the course, RCS (the race organisers) have moved away from the traditional Muri di Sormanno climb and moved the course to finish in Bergamo.

The main change is that the bulk of the climbing has been moved towards the end of the race which despite not being massive these climbs will hurt and shred the peloton. The passo Ganda is the days main climb averaging 7% over 9km with steeper sections this will be the scene of either lone climbers making a long bid for glory or a strong team trying to drop any riders who can sprint a bit, as the following climbs are more suited to punchier riders rather than pure climbers. If Contador wants to win this race, Tinkoff need to hit this climb very hard.

The final climb in Bergamo is short, has a steep section towards the top and includes some cobbles, I would expect a small bunch to hit this climb of maybe 25-30 riders and the race will be decided here. There will be lots of attacks and a fast descent to the finish, it could be possible for a lone rider win with a gap from the top, it all depends on the co-operation in any group behind. It looks a 50-50 between a solo rider making it with a daring attack or a small select sprint.

To win this race you really need to be in form (and be able to climb) so that is a good place to start.

Valverde yet again has to be favourite for this race, he is so good at maintaining top shape all year long and he proved that last weekend in the world's where he achieved another podium spot (thankfully not a win though). He will be very difficult to drop on the climbs, it is only tactics that might prevent him from winning here, he has a really fast sprint at the end of a hard race but it is likely that he will expected to chase down attacks in the finale. His best option for me is to be the attacker like in San Sebastian, he's just too short to back at 3/1 sadly.

Next up is the new World Champion Michal Kwiatkowski, probably the most talented all round rider in the peloton, he has everything, and is clearly in superb shape. It will be really interesting to see how he goes in this race, the distractions and commitments that winning the world's brings could have taken an edge of his shape but I doubt it, the main concern is how his long climbing is for the passo Ganda, if he holds on over this climb he is a major threat.

Katusha should bring a really strong line up considering their utter domination of Milano Torino midweek where they had four riders in the top 10 including 1st and 3rd with Caruso and Moreno. This race should all be for mr Rodriguez though as he looks to defend a race he has won for the last two years, the problem he will have though is that this new course suits him a lot less than the old one, sure there is a steep climb near the finish but it isn't as long and it will be harder for him to get the same kind of gaps to win as he isn't going to win a sprint finish against Valverde.

There is a sub plot in this race which is the battle to be crowned number one WT rider which for the uninitiated it basically world rankings decided on placings in WT races through the season, it is really close between Contador and Valverde which just this race and a race in China to go. This may be the reason Contador arrives here with a very strong line up which almost looks like a squad for a Grand Tour, if they do not set a searing pace on Ganda then Contador is not in his top shape. He has only done one race since the Vuelta which was Milano Torino on Wednesday which he finished 6th, it sounds like Katusha managed to isolate him and then fired many attacks off the front and he couldn't or wouldn't chase them all down. I expect Contador to top six but not to win as he would have to do that solo from a long way out which is a hard ask, he'll play it safe and bank as many points as possible, therefore I can't back him.

BMC bring Sammy Sanchez to this race, a masterful descender if he has the legs any gap off the top of the final climb could be decisive. He had a really good Vuelta finishing in 6th on the GC and he has previous in this race, I will look towards Sammy if the odds are right.

Another rider to consider is Tony Gallopin, this is a bit left field as he has no where near the climbing abilities of the riders already mentioned but he can hang on and is growing all the time as a classics rider. He is another with a really sharp sprint when required, the race will need to be not too hard on Ganda but he has an outside chance.

Dan Martin is worth considering again here as he's done well here before with a second place and he can handle long races whilst the climbs should not be an issue. He just needs to stay on his bike! I will chance my arm with him one more time in this race and hopefully he can remain crash free and get a good result.

It would be rude not to mention last years World Champion Rui Costa, this course should suit him also but he wasn't particularly noticeable last Sunday and I'm not convinced he is at the top of his form. The same thing can be said for riders like Romain Bardet and Thibaut Pinot.

Finally I want to mention Warren Barguil, he had a great attacking Vuelta taking home 8th in the GC and has only ridden one race since which was the Worlds last sunday where he finished in the top 20, he is coming into this under the radar and may well shine. The climbs shouldn't be a problem and he has a handy sprint also, if the odds are right he will be on my slip.

And last but not least a mention for Niemec as @8aldwin (v knowledgeable on Polish riders) tweeted that he's in shape and likes this race he has to be worth a super outside shot at 200/1.

I've gone for these picks mainly because I see this ending with a small group with attacks flying everywhere and no one team having enough strength to chase everything and there could be a lot of Valverde wheel sucking with cat and mouse tactics from everyone's favourite trio of Spaniards. Therefore I want riders who might just be given a 100m gap which never gets brought in again, it could well end up with a Valverde/Jrod face off but the odds are far too short to back them.


0.5pts ew Dan Martin 20/1 pp
0.4pts ew Warren Barguil 66/1 pp
0.4pts ew Sammy Sanchez 33/1 pp
0.1pt ew Przemyslaw Niemec 200/1 pp



1pt Hesjedal v zaugg, and Zardini v cataldo double 6/4 888sport.


I also have small long odds bets on Rosa and Zardini (and additionals amounts on Barguil and Niemec) on Betfair as the odds were massive and its my last proper betting race of the year!

World Championships RR

The World's title is the most important one day race of the year, the winner gets to wear the rainbow jersey all year long, a jersey of immense pride for winners and will be many riders main target of the second half of the season. As ever the course determines the candidates so lets look at what Ponferrada2014 has in store.

14 laps of an 18.2km circuit for a total distance of nearly 255km, if your in any doubt, that is a long way, particularly on a hilly circuit and is the first key aspect of the route. There have been riders past and present who have incredible skills but who cannot handle a hard race over a distance not many races reach in one day.

The hills of the course are detailed above, the official website makes sure that it points out that these roads are "perfectly asphalted", either way 4300m of climbing over the entire route will sap the legs even if these hills are not hugely challenging in themselves.

Team dynamics play a huge role with "too many chiefs" syndrome prevalent in national teams comprised of riders who normally ride in different colours in the peloton for the rest of the year.

The amount of riders each country can bring to make up their team is determined by performance by riders of that nationality in the peloton. This can leave some contenders from countries where the depth of rider is not great tremendously isolated in a team of three or even just on their own against a team of nine Spaniards or Italians.

9 riders: Spain, France, Italy, Netherlands, Colombia, Australia, Belgium, Poland, Germany, Great Britain

6 riders: Morocco, Venezuela, USA, Iran, Ukraine, Russia, Slovenia, Denmark, Austria, Portugal

3 riders: Eritrea, Algeria, Brazil, Costa Rica, Argentina, Kazakhstan, Japan, Korea, Czech Republic, Switzerland, Norway, Ireland, Romania, Croatia, Estonia, Latvia, New Zealand, Belarus, Canada, Lithuania, Luxembourg, South Africa, Slovakia

1 rider: Ecuador, Sweden, Serbia, Bulgaria, Greece

This race will have a hard pace as it is in a number of teams interest to eliminate sprinters like Degenkolb and Bouhanni, neither of which will be in the lead group come 2 laps to go in my opinion. Spain and Italy will drive the pace for Valverde and Nibali (or one of the other Italian riders, maybe Visconti).

This could well come down to whether the likes of Valverde can shake Gerrans, this course looks to me to be roughly the same sort of "hardness" of the ardennes races like Amstel Gold. Gerrans is hard enough for these kind of races but will he have the support necessary to cover all the attacks that will fly off in the finale? Unless Simon Clarke is on fire then the answer is no. In Gerrans three big one day triumphs this year for Orica he has had a super Pieter Weening to control fields with a strong pace shutting attacks down with ease, in this race Weening is riding for the Netherlands, it is a big loss for the Aussie who I think is a little reminiscent of Strax (10 kudos pts for the first person who gets that). Gerrans was super strong in Canada and is rightly one of the favourites for this race but in the betting markets 4/1 is too short for me to even be close to backing the Australian hope.

There is a name that as much as I'm not a huge fan you really cannot ignore, Valverde, one of the worlds strongest climbers and one day racers with a fast sprint, he may sit on wheels and struggle to see past his own ego but he is bloody consistent. In a home world championships with full support Valverde has to go well here. He could win solo or more likely from a small group of 6 or 7.

What of the phenomenon Peter Sagan? He's had a bit of a disappointing year with less wins than 2013 but he has peppered podiums and generally been marked out of chances to win races. Sagan has absolutely zero form coming into this race after purposely doing jackshit in the vuelta, is this the biggest bluff of form you'll ever see? The bookies don't want to take any chances installing him as 4th favourite, I don't blame them as I would not be surprised to see Sagan romp to a win, he is that classy.

The other bookies favourite is Cancellara, he has ignored the TT to focus on this race, and on form it's hard to see him dropped. As I said in my TTT preview Cancellara is really skinny to allow him to cope with the repeated climbs this race will throw at him, Trek suffered in the TTT but this conditioning could help Cancellara here. After a hard race Cancellara has a great sprint, look at Milan San Remo this year for evidence of that.

The scenario I cannot get away from is 8-10 riders cresting the top of the final climb on the last lap, the winner will come from this group with some major tactics going on. The descent will be rapid and I don't think there will be enough time to get back on for anyone dropped.

So after all that lets go over my picks.

Up first is Ireland's Dan Martin, a perennial contender who knows how to win big races, he's just come out of a strong Vuelta where he was only lacking on the really brutal mountain days and got his first GT top 10. Dan is a great one day racer with the all important decent sprint which gives two options to win and more likely ew placing. At 50/1 ish across the markets I really think that's good value. Sadly Boyles with their 5 places are a bit tighter than the rest at 33/1 and i'll leave it to you to decide if you want the extra places as 60s is available at Hills. For me I'm going to put whatever I'm allowed (not much) with Skybet at 66/1 for four places and the rest with Boyles at 5 places 33/1, I think the extra two places on the standard 3 places gives me a better chance here and if he wins I'll be happy with 33s.

Dan Martin a blended 1pt ew. 0.2pt ew Skybet 66/1 (4 places) and 0.8pt ew 33/1 Boyles (5 places).

Next up is Tim Wellens at 150/1. Wellens is a thoroughbred with a great career ahead of him. He sits within the superstar Belgian team who come in without any apparent strategy apart from dump a bunch of guys who all think they can win in the same team. It will be interesting how that works. I like Wellens and want to have him covered. 0.25pts ew with Boyles.

My next low stake pick is Bauke Mollema, a great one day racer who is incredibly consistent at not winning. But  he does place a lot and therefore 100/1 to 5 places at Boyles is worth a go at. 0.35pts ew at Boyles. It's questionable again who the Dutch go with but its a long time for TomDum to be at his peak whereas I get the sense Mollema is on an upwards trajectory after two 10th places in Canada.

I have to have 1pt on Valverde to win at 10/1 with Boyles as I am picturing a finish a bit like San Sebastian and if I have to sit and watch him ride away from Mollema again (I was on Mollema in San Sebastian) would make me very angry indeed.

There are a lot of riders I haven't mentioned here like Kwiatkowski, GVA, Costa, Gallopin etc but you can't cover every base and I've backed on the strength of the scenario which I think is most likely and riders I know can handle the distance. 

**UPDATE**

Now Boyles has upped the ante to 6 places e/w it seems foolish not to have a cover on Ben Swift at 100s. 0.5pts ew. Swift is probably the best climber of the "sprinters" and can pack a punch after a hard race and I think at 6 places that is a good bet.

World Championships TTT

In the first of my blogs on the World Championships I'm going to look at the Team Time Trial.

This year the world championships are being held in Spain, there are very few flat roads in spain and this years TTT is a bit more lumpy than last years pan flat course.

A good starting point is to look at last years race. OPQS triumphed by under 1 second over Orica Greenedge which is extraordinary if you consider this was a 64 minute effort (full results here).

For this years race I would expect the same teams to be contending for the win (plus Movistar), over the World Championship distance there can be no passengers and a lot of teams just do not have the TT depth to contend against the big TTT focused teams.

There have been two other TTT's this year in Tirreno-Adriatico and the Giro d'Italia in Ireland when Dan Martin infamously hit a grate. A Tony Martin inspired OPQS won from Orica in Tirreno and in the Giro Orica triumphed over OPQS without Tony Martin, the teams will be different and the Worlds course is over double the length of these but they give an idea of the two most TTT focused teams. However the worlds is a target for all the big teams and it is not just between OPQS and Orica.

The course this year is lumpy with a couple of steep sections.

There's not a lot of point at looking at the following teams; AG2R, FDJ, Lampre (unless Ulissi gets a ride), Lotto Belisol, Europcar, and Katusha. They do not have the personnel to do anything here, I will look at them for H2H purposes but not in depth for the win. 

From Pro-Conti level the only team who might do well is Rusvelo.

Lets look at the contending Lineups;

OPQS: Boonen, Kwiatkowski, T Martin, Serry, Terpstra, Vermote.

This is a really interesting selection from the reigning champions as Boonen, Serry and Vermote are not really names I would have picked from the full OPQS roster. These three riders come into the team this year in place of Vandewalle, Chavanel, and P Velits who all now race on different teams, Vandewalle and Chavanel are world class elite time trialists and Velits is handy too, so for me this is a significant downgrade on last years squad.

BMC: Dennis, Dillier, Oss, Quinziato, TJVG, P Velits

This is a really strong team from BMC, each rider in this line up can really contribute to a TTT performance of note from BMC. Dennis is one of the very best TT rider's in the world, Dillier will be near that level in 2 or 3 years time, Oss is solid, Quinziato has been going great in TT's this year, TJVG has a TT pedigree and P Velits has been part of the OPQS TTT machine in recent years.

Sky: Puccio, Kiryienka, Thomas, Wiggins, Cataldo, Suitsou

A strong team from Sky, Puccio rings alarm bells though for me, I'm not sure what he adds to this squad. Thomas looked a bit cooked in Canada in races that if he were in shape he would contend in. Wiggins may well make up for these deficiencies though as he moves further towards the track. Cataldo, Kiry and Suitsou are solid as a rock.

Giant-Shimano: Arndt, Dumoulin, Haga, Kittel, Ludviggson, Preidler

Giant are my dark horse for a top 5 placing here. Tom Dumoulin is the stand out name and one of the few riders in the world who can genuinely challenge Tony Martin in a ITT, Ludviggson is a favourite punt of mine in ITT's as many of you will know and he has a lot of talent, Arndt has posted a couple of good TT's over the year and Kittel and Haga can handle themselves also. Giant have been working towards improving their TTT for some time and I think this is maybe too early for them to genuinely challenge the big teams but I don't think they'll be too far away.

Orica Greenedge: Lancaster, Howson, Mouris, Durbridge, Hepburn, Tuft

This is a unit, 5 of this squad are tried and tested in Orica's very successful recent TTT efforts, and the new boy is Howson who is the U23 world TT champion of 2013. This is several of this teams major 2014 target, individually these riders generally cannot compete with the likes of Martin, Wiggins, Cancellara, Dumoulin etc but as a team they are formidable and I cannot see Orica not getting a top 3 result here.

Trek: Cancellara, Vandewalle, Sergent, Irizar, Popovich, Stuyven

A strong line up from Trek but not one I think can podium although they will be close. Cancellara is the skinniest I've seen in a long time because he is after the road race title and not the ITT and has worked on his shape accordingly, he will still be an asset to this squad but not to the level of Martin will be for OPQS for example. Vandewalle and Sergent have had good years in the ITT but Vandewalle has seemed a touch tired recently and has a cracked rib, the other three are solid but not going to light any TTT fires.

Movistar: (6 from these 7) Amador, Dowsett, I Izaguirre, Malori, Sutterlin, Erviti, Herrada

The home hope for this TTT as the only Spanish team with a hope of doing well here Movistar will have a good lineup for this in theory. The problem I have with Movistar is that usually they disappoint but on home turf they should be galvanised. Dowsett and Malori are top quality, Amador and Izaguirre can handle themselves and Sutterlin has a good junior record versus the clock. Hopefully they pick Herrada over Erviti as for me that makes a stronger line up but obviously I don't know the inner workings at the Movistar camp.

Other teams who have strong riders in the lineup are;

Astana: Grivko, Gruzdev, Kangert, Lutsenko, Westra could all line up for Astana and they could do well if they are in form, Kangert had a hugely disappointing Vuelta whereas Lutsenko has huge promise and showed that in the Vuelta.

Cannondale: Bodnar & Koren are strong riders individually but the rest will not be able to contribute enough for a Cannondale win or podium.

Garmin: Norman Hansen, Talansky, Van Baarle, Navardauskas - Garmin have some nice riders who are in form Van Baarle just won the Tour of Britain, Talansky should have good shape coming out of a Vuelta where he worked for the team, Navardauskas is in form and Norman Hansen has a great TT future.

Belkin: A line up of solid riders who can all do a job, I think Belkin will top 10, an important member of the line up will be Stef Clement who is a former four time Dutch TT champ.

Tinkoff-Saxo: Boaro, Bennati, Juul-Jensen, Roche, Rogers - Tinkoff have good riders in their potential team but I'm not sure this is much of a focus for them coming so soon after the victory of Contador in the Vuelta.

Rusvelo: The russian outfit tends to do pretty well in TTT efforts and is another lineup where the Sum performance is greater than its constituents.

A few things to consider here, OPQS have for me a weaker lineup than last year but they are always strong and have the irreplaceable Tony Martin who could beat half the teams in this on his own. Orica are very focussed on success here and have a great lineup but they might be a little bit green around the edges to make them back able for me. Movistar on home soil will be looking for glory and have a couple of form riders, how much the Tour of Britain would have taken out of Dowsett is a worry though as he went very deep. Sky should go well but I don't see them winning.

The team I really like here is BMC, I think the course is perfect for them and as soon as I saw their line up I thought it looked really good. In truth there is not a lot to separate some of these teams and it should be tight.

My first bet is BMC to take out the WIN 1pt at 20/1 with BWIN, this seems over priced for me as I think BMC are one of the big contenders.

One aspect of the preview of any Time Trial team or otherwise which I have yet to mention is weather, at the moment it looks like there's a risk of thunderstorms but this far out its hard to tell. Weather can be all important but I'm still taking BMC this far out as I don't think that price will last, the 14s on offer at PP is chunky as well. I also want 1pt of BMC top 3 at 2/1 which you can get at b365 and Kambi platforms.

My 1, 2, 3 is going to be BMC, Orica, OPQS. Doubt you will read that anywhere else.

If there is rain mid race then we need to cover an early starter. That would be Cannondale who are decent and go out earliest of the teams who have any chance at all. 0.2pts win 150/1, Various, 0.1pt top 3 30/1 Kambi.

H2H's

Giant v astana Evens 2pts Kambi platform - Giant should top ten, Astana I'm not so sure, they were not great in the Vuelta and the team is largely the same. *Added another point on this at 2.4*

Belkin v garmin 6/5 1pt Kambi platform - I fancy Belkin to beat garmin here, Belkin have a lot of decent riders in their squad, whereas Garmin have 3 good guys 3 rubbish guys (no offence if any of them read this).

Tour of Britain stage 5

Another typical Tour of Britain stage, up and down all day with a small hill really close to the finish.

The last little hill is not too testing (strava here), but this is a hard day with quite a lot of hills and almost never on the flat. This stage could be a break if the right one goes or another reduced bunch sprint.

I think if Sky don't get in the break then they will work for Swift, the same goes with NetApp and maybe OPQS will work too. Therefore I'm going to say the most likely scenario is like previous stages the bunch together at the base of the final little climb.

I can't see anyone being strong enough to attack at the base and hold off teams looking to set up a sprint much like in Llandudno when Renshaw won. Today's stage is a bit harder than that one and I'm not sure Renshaw/Cav will be there.

Like two days ago Boyles have a four place market and that makes King of Fourth Tyler Farrar a bet at 33/1. He excels after hard days and against this field I do think he has a real chance of taking an actual win. Swift has proven recently that he gets beat repeatedly when he should win, Bennett seems to be lacking his usual punch although he did say he might take a few stages to warm up.

I'm also going to take a small bet on Trusov of Tinkoff at 125/1 with Boyles, he's after a stage win this week and it would have to come on a stage like this.

0.8pts ew Farrar 33/1 Boyles (4 places)

0.25pts ew Trusov 125/1 Boyles (4 places)

Tour of Britain stage 3

The big one! The ascent of the Tumble finishes the stage and this is an actual climb!

Strava says its about 5km long at 8% which is going to cause some time gaps.

http://www.strava.com/segments/the-tumble-614820?hl=en-GB

I think this stage should surely be won by a climber but one who has a bit of a punch to finish as the climb flattens out towards the finish and it's hard to see a stand out climber here.

The riders I want to be onside of are Roche, Konig and Nordhaug.

My first bet is Konig 1pt WIN at 8.7 with Pinnacle

Konig oozes quality, and definitely has a good shot at this stage.

Tour of Britain stage 2

Stage 2 - 200km's of up and down terrain in Wales

The climb of Marine Drive is close to the finish with a 5km fast technical descent on tight roads, the profile looks pretty spiky but the scale is all important, the highest altitude is 200m so it is likely we get a sprint finish. 

It might be a good idea for teams to try and attack Wiggo and take a few seconds as sometimes our Knight of the realm doesn't always descend too well.

I think the profile does lend itself to a cheeky attack from an elite descender like Kwiatkowski or Chavanel but they are too short a price and I'm dubious about Kittel/Cav making it to this finish.

I'm going to have a small bet on some outsider sprinters here as this could be very chaotic and it will be difficult for teams to maintain position in the downhill to the line.

Colbrelli 66/1 0.3pts EW PP - Colbrelli is targeting this stage and has a fair turn of speed on him.
Bennett 18/1 1pt WIN WH - Bennett got caught on the wrong side of the road in today's sprint but NetApp bossed it in the run in and tomorrow is a big chance of a stage win.

Vuelta stage 14

This is the first really big test for the climbers. It's also quite long for a Vuelta stage at 200km, with what looks to be close to 65km of climbing.

The final few kilometers of the stage are really really steep, and if you think the break will make it you can only look at really high calibre climbers.

So what options do the teams have.

Lampre: Niemec, Serpa

AG2R: zilch

Astana: Landa (but may have to work for Aru)

Belkin: Ten Dam

BMC: Nerz (not convinced he is good enough, Evans seems cooked).

Caja Rural: Expect someone like Txurruka to get into the break but not good enough either.

Cannondale: Bennett

Cofidis: Bagot, Coppel - but I wouldn't be happy with my money on them even if they did make the break

Europcar: zilch

FDJ: zilch

Garmin: Hesjedal, Cardoso, Talansky

Giant: zilch, all to support Barguil

IAM: zilch (Tschopp hopefully for our KOM bet but I don't think he is strong enough to win).

Katusha: all for Jrod

Lotto: Monfort (although he has looked v ropey in last few stages).

Movistar: I wouldn't be surprised if they put more than one from Herrada, Izaguirre, Amador, Moreno into the break to force Tinkoff to work all day.

MTN-Quebeka: Kudus, Meintjes, both good options.

OPQS: Poels

Orica: Yates (may be on Chaves duty though).

Sky: Kennaugh, Cataldo, Kiri, Nieve

Trek: Arredondo, Zubeldia

I think we look towards a break today as there is a lot of work to be done between 140km and 190km where I can't see who drives it with enough confidence to bring a break back, Tinkoff won't as they risk exposing Bertie to bonus seconds, Movistar/Katusha should fear Valverde/Jrod being dropped by Bertie on the last climb and won't want to use men up.

My break punts will be the following, Meintjes (100/1 PP), Kudus (200/1 Various), Poels (250/1 Laddies), Kennaugh (250/1 BV). 0.2pts on each to win.

If it looks like its a GC finish then I will go again inplay.

H2H's

Ten Dam v txurruka 2.73 1pt Pinnacle - Weird one this, Ten Dam is just as likely to go in a break as txurruka but is a better climber so why is he the massive outsider? I don't get it so its a bet for me.

Gesink v navarro 2.46 1pt Pinnacle - I presume this H2H came up as Navarro was 9th and Gesink 10th in stage 11. Gesink put in an impressive attack that day and I think he's in better shape than Navarro for a test like this.

Martin v sanchez 2.00 1pt Pinnacle - see above, exactly the same reasoning.

Pardilla v anacona 8/11 0.75pt Ladbrokes - I suspect anacona could fade pretty rapidly in the coming days.

Chaves v nieve 1.95 0.75pt Pinnacle - Chaves is for GC and nieve is for Froome, Chaves is fading but this is a good climb for him so I favour him here.

Vuelta stage 12

A short flat stage.

A couple of corners in the last 2km but an over 1km long straight to finish.

In this kind of stage I like to back Guardini, he has a really high top speed when he can wind himself up. Bouhanni is an obvious favourite but is far too short to be backed.

1pt Guardini EW 33/1 Paddypower

Vuelta stage 11

After a brief blog hiatus I am back. I think I'm learning a lot through this process and hopefully can start to do a bit better as I'm having a lot of ups and downs and the P/L is basically nada either way!

This stage is nondescript until the final climb which is below;

It's a nasty one as most of the Mountain top finishes will be from here on in. Either from the break or the GC riders you have to be a good climber to win this. 

Now on twitter after the end of the TT I was pretty annoyed as a lot of my bets went out the window and I rather rashly plumped 2pts on Bertie at 2/1. Very tight odds but if this comes to a GC finish who is going to beat him so it could be worse. Even if I did it without thinking too much this still needs to count in the P/L as the rule is if I tweet with a points allocation it counts (other suggestions are not for the blog).

So we have a GC finish covered with my least favourite rider, now for the more exciting break options.

These are my shortlisted break candidates

Lampre - Niemec, Serpa

Astana - Kangert

BMC - Nerz, Evans

Caja Rural - LLS, Arroyo

Cannondale - Bennett

Cofidis - Coppel, Bagot

Europcar - Sicard

FDJ - Ellissonde

Garmin - Cardoso

IAM - Tschopp

Katusha - Trofimov, Chernetckii

Lotto - VDB, De Clercq

Movistar - Izaguirre

MTN - Kudus, Meintjes

Orica - Clarke

Sky - Nieve

Trek - Zubeldia

And now I've named half the field, these are my picks, they are all 0.2pts ew with Boyles to four places.

Kangert 125/1 - Kangert came into this race with a rare opportunity to be a joint leader, sadly that chance has now gone but he is still in good shape and is an experienced GT rider, he put in a good TT and a stage win must now be his target.

Evans 100/1 - Evans is a wily old dog who knows how to win stages, he did a brilliant TT without needing too and hopefully that means he has good form despite not being BMCs leader.

Nieve 100/1 - Nieve is climbing well and might just get the freedom to attack for a win on a climb he knows well (@gizza_tips highlighted this), this could potentially come from a break or a tactical GC battle.

Kudus 200/1 - Kudus is a climbing phenomenon and in some point he will shine in this race after a tough start, hopefully this stage will be that day.

De Clerq 100/1 - Another good climber who did a reasonably TT without really needing too, he could easily take out a climb of this nature from a break.

Zubeldia 250/1 - Zubeldia was climbing really well, but then he got taken out by the abrupt change in temperature and lost 15mins so stage wins are now his target, this stage should be better for him and the price is way too big. (This is with Ladbrokes to 3 places, same stake as the rest).

GP Ouest France - Plouay

So it's another of the Autumn classics, the route this year has been slightly altered to make it a harder race, I'm not going to go into full detail mode (cyclingquotes has a great preview, read that).

The final 14km.

This race should be very active as there are a mix of lineups, a few teams like Katusha, Trek, Giant are here for a sprint with Kristoff, Nizzolo and Mezgec. Other teams are covering all the bases with a variety of attacking talent and the race should contain a lot of attacking.

Interestingly as far as I can see Katusha are only lining up with 6 riders to including Kristoff so he will need to be extra strong and every team will know it would be good to isolate Kristoff as he has gone up a level this year and is rightly the favourite for this race.

I suspect that if we get the right attack then Katusha will be left to chase and may not be strong enough to do so.

Really for this I want riders who could either go in a move or contend in a sprint. The name of that rider is Gerrans. 1pt at 12s with bv.

Nizzolo goes really well here too and I have taken 0.5pts ew at 18s with PP.

Alaphillipe is having a great year and I like him too. 0.5pts ew 66s.

Also done a Nizzolo/Valverde (vuelta stage) double 0.3pts 85/1.

Vuelta stage 7

Need to end a poor run for my blog bets and this stage would be a good point for that to happen!

The final 5km

The last 6km average out at about 3% and this should be an uphill sprint of some description.

Now in my short guide to the Vuelta in my favourite spreadsheet in the world (my bet tracker sheet) I had recorded this as "hard sprinter/fast climber". This should hold as long as a break does not succeed. The issue here is who does that chasing, Orica should be pretty tired after working for Matthews and then Chaves/Yates today, so maybe Giant will help for Degenkolb but this is right on the edge of his capabilities. 

I think this is a 50/50 between a break staying away and it being a an uphill drag finish.

One rider who could feasibly do both but probably suits a sprint more is Martens of Belkin, if Belkin do not get in the break they may lend a hand to set up a sprint.

For the break Simon Clarke of Orica could be a threat, a serial break rider with a sharp sprint and former KOM winner in the Vuelta.

I want two other picks for the break, they are Jungels and Bouet

Bets - Martens 50/1 0.4pts ew, Clarke, Bouet, Jungels all 200/1 0.2pts ew each Paddypower.

Vuelta stage 6

So got stage 5 totally wrong but there you go, it happens. This stage is one that probably 20 riders have earmarked in their road books.

The final climb is what is important here, 4.5km at a constant 10% on a pretty straight road. This will be very rapid and I can't see beyond the quality operators in the field.

I have a list of 10-12 riders who can win this. 

I'm expecting Froome to test his rivals with a strong push and anyone who wants to win this will need to be able to follow him. I think enough riders will be fresh enough to be able to follow Froome and can see Froome getting outsprinted at the finish, although if Froome's odds are big enough I will be on.

A few riders have explicitly named this stage as a target including Yates, Arredondo and Dan Martin. Yates has had a super year and has a great punchy finish but this is exalted company and a win could be hard but has a shot at a podium if its raced the right way. Arredondo doesn't seem to be in good enough shape. Dan Martin ticks all the boxes really and is one of my favourites for the stages.

Katusha bring a good double threat with Moreno and Jrod, from the two I would prefer Jrod.

Quintana is obviously a great climber but this is too short a climb for me to back him, I doubt he will lose any time though. Valverde has a brilliant uphill sprint which is why he's so good in Fleche Wallone.

Other riders I have considered include Kelderman, Contador, D Caruso, Evans, Chaves, Uran.

0.5pts Martin WIN 7/1 Betvictor

0.3pts ew Yates 33/1 Betvictor

I may come back

Vuelta stage 5

Sadly yesterday's stage proved too hard for my picks. Today we get another climb before a sprint finish.

This length of climb worries me for Bouhanni, all in all this is 23km drag with two steeper km to finish when I would expect some hard attacks from good climbers which could cause Bouhanni and a lot of other sprinters to blow. So I'm definitely not going hard at this but I do want some small picks.

I've gone for two K's both 0.3pts ew at 100s.

Kolobnev - Got 6th today so clearly in good shape.

Kelderman - Wilco has a good sprint and is always a good rider to keep onside when there is a late climb.

Vuelta stage 4

I was thinking to myself before this tour which out of the Giro/Vuelta has the really good road book? Turns out its the Giro, the Vuelta roadbook contains almost no useful information beyond the basics.

Here is today's profile.

The cat 2 that peaks with 26km to go is about 8km at 5% with some higher gradients but no km averages more than 6%, I think there will be some attacks over this but I suspect FDJ and particularly Giant will be very keen to race for a sprint as it's too far from the finish for a GC man to attack on the climb so I don't see why a GC team would want to waste too much energy to ramp up the pace. Therefore Orica, FDJ and Giant to share duties controlling the breakaway.

So presuming we get a sprint the finish is a very slight 1% drag with a few sharp corners in the last 5km.

It is very very hard to see past Bouhanni again today. 1.5pts 2/1 Various

Debus for the podium! 0.5pts ew 40/1 Various

Vuelta stage 3.

Onto Vuelta stage 3, a couple of climbs in the middle to get rid of bouhanni and then a punchy finish.

According to cyclingstage.com (top site) the final little rise is 1500m at 4.5% with 300m slightly downhill from there which looks about right. I think we need to look towards the hard sprinters here and I do not think this is a GC stage.

Therefore the stage winner books look quite attractive and the three favourites should be Degs, Matthews and Sagan. I'm backing Matthews as he's in good shape and I'm very confident he will be in the mix, Degenkolb is rapid but I'm worried he could be dropped and never get back on and who knows whether Sagan will be bothered to try.

Small ew bets on Boonen and Stuyven at 150s as well, Boonen can't win on a flat finish versus this field but after a punchy hill he could, Stuyven got fourth in stage 2 on the flat but is more dangerous in stages with hills.


1pt ew Matthews 9/1 PP
0.2pt ew Boonen 150/1 PP
0.2pts ew Stuyven 150/1 PP

Vuelta stage 1 TTT

The first stage of the Vuelta is a short TTT. Its flat and technical and will favour teams with powerhouse riders and good technical skills.

I have two picks at the moment.

2pts Trek win at 9/4, Betvictor

Trek have a lineup with 4 elite TT riders in it, and specifically TT riders who are good over a short distance, Cancellara, Vandewalle, Sergent, Jungels and Popovych is formidable and for me the strongest unit here.


0.25pts ew Giant 300/1 Coral

Giant are rightly outsiders as they do not have a good track record in TTT's but this kind of course could almost be a long leadout for a sprint which Giant are king at. The explosivity required out of the numerous corners on the circuit could favour a sprint heavy team like Giant, I sort of get the sense that over the long term Giant would like to be competitive in TTT's and they have been working on it. Arndt did a good TT recently and Ludviggson, Haga and Craddock are very solid also. Time differences over a short distance will be very small and Giant have a chance.



H2H's

1.5pts Lotto v Tinkoff 11/10 Various.- I think Lotto have a solid team for this and should go top 6. I fear for Tinkoff in this, late team changes, contador coming back from a broken leg, could well be a no risk approach for them.


H2H Accumulator

0.4pts Lotto, Belkin, Katusha, Cofidis, OPQS to win their PP head to heads. 29/1.

Vuelta antepost

For those of you who have read my tweets before a GT before it won't surprise you that I usually like to get pretty involved in the range of markets that GT's allows compared to normal races. This blog post is to record those bets.

GC

Horner Podium finish 9/1 1.5pts BetVictor - Horner is coming out of Utah in decent form and his shape has to be about the same as last year when he proved he can slay if not a class field than an in form Nibali. 9/1 to podium is IMO really good value. HORNER DNS THIS WILL BE REFUNDED.



KOM

Looking at the route I'm not totally convinced a GC rider will win this so I'm going to take two small punts on riders at big odds. 0.2pts ew on both.

Meintjes - 100/1, PP, B365, a super talent riding in a team that will look for a prize like this when probably a GC top 10 is out of range for their GC man Pardilla. Meintjes said he's going to target a couple of stages and has the climbing ability to go well in the KOM.

Tschopp - 500/1, PP, this is a long shot, IAM like MTN-Quebeka best hopes of making an impact in the Vuelta are through stage wins or a side prize like KOM. Tschopp is a good but not stellar climber but could have the legs and consistency to get through the tour picking up points.



POINTS

For me the GC is hard to call between Quintana and Froome and I can see why Quintana leads the points classification markets as he will be favourite in every summit finish and there is no bias towards sprinters in the Vuelta for points. However Froome is proven to be as good a climber as Quintana so I don't expect much between Quintana and Froome in terms of placings in the summit finishes.

However as far as I can see (without any kind of public roadbook online anywhere), the TT's will also count towards the points classification. Now here I expect Froome to be right up there with the elite TT riders in the race whereas Quintana although much improved is not at that level.

Therefore I'm having 2pts win of Froome for Points classification at 8/1 (Ladbrokes).


I also think there is enough points available for a hard sprinter to get involved on the podium as the sprint field is not strong minus Bouhanni who will be favourite for the pure sprint stages. The rider I want for this ew is Michael Matthews, he's having a great season, has every chance to come second behind Bouhanni in the pure sprints and should compete on two or three harder stages when Bouhanni, Guardini etc will be dropped. Matthews can also get a few points on the short TT if motivated.

Another thought on this is if Quintana goes out and destroys everyone on stage 9 or 11 then breaks will be much more likely to make it in the following summit days reducing GC riders points opportunities.

Matthews 0.2pts ew PP.


POINTS H2H

Debusschere v Hutarovich 1.5pts 2.3 Pinnacle - Debus is faster, has a better team, and a bit more resilient to hills than Hutarovich so hopefully will have more opportunities to get points.


TOP 10

Kangert 1pt 5/1 Skybet - Kangert is a proven three week rider scoring a couple of top 15's in support of Nibali, in this Vuelta he goes in as joint leader with Aru.

Uran 1.5pts 5/6 Skybet - Uran is a proven three week podium rider, this field looks a bit too strong for him but a top 10 should be the minimum he's hoping for.


TEAM CLASSIFICATION H2H

Double - Giant v iam, OPQS v ag2r 2pts 6/5 888 or other Kambi platforms.

Treble - Astana v lampre, Cannondale v europcar, Belkin v garmin 1pt 7/4 888

8 fold - the above 5 and MTN v orica, Movistar v katusha, FDJ v trek 0.5pt 30/1 888

Eneco Stage 7

Right I'm back for the final Eneco stage, which is basically a bit like the Amstel Gold race. After taking the stage and race win today Tim Wellens will need to be able to cover relentless attacks from a very very strong Boom and the rest of the contenders as well.

The good news for Tim is that he has a stronger team than Dumoulin and should be able to rely on Vanendert to work for him shutting down attacks plus in any kind of bunch sprint Wellens has a good sprint. This will mean that Belkin will try and make the day a hard one and hope Wellens suffers. Also BMC will probably try and set up the race for Gilbert and GVA again, and the bonus seconds at sprint points should be a target for belkin as well. So its hard to see how a break stays away.

I think we will see another day of relentless attacks but the most likely scenario for me is a reduced bunch sprint from the GC men.

I'm going for Keukeleire again today. 1pt win at 20/1 BV

I'm also going to have a bit of Breschel. 0.4pt win at 40/1 BV

Eneco Tour stage 5

A chaotic final sprint as predicted but the main contenders got through so no sprint surprises. The next stage is the first of three GC deciding days as cobbled hills are the order of the day.

In previous years this finish on the Geraardsbergen wall has been the finale of the race and was won by Stybar last year from Stannard, and Ballan from Boom in 2012.

Doubt there will be any surprises in this stage and the winner should come from the following;

Terpstra, Boom, Vanmarcke, Vanendert, Wellens, Gilbert, Quinziato, GVA, Cancellara, Marcato, Thomas, Langeveld, Keukeleire.

I like Keukeleire most here, he loves a cobble and I regularly back him on such terrain, Vanmarcke has looked super strong but got hit hard by a flying bike today so I don't think he can be backed with confidence. I would prefer Quinziato over the other two BMC riders as he's previously done well here and has looked in great shape.

Keukeleire 0.75pts ew 50/1 PP
Quinziato 0.4pts ew 50/1 PP
Dillier 0.1pts ew 500/1 PP (I had to take this because Dillier is a rider who one day will win me a lot).

H2Hs

Keukeleire v breschel 1.5pts 1.719 Pinnacle
Wellens v koren 1pt 1.793 Pinnacle
Marcato v gilbert 0.5pt 2.49 Pinnacle
Quinziato v gva 0.75pt 2.83 Pinnacle
Langeveld v de vreese 1.2pts 1.74 Pinnacle