Tour of Poland GC

So as promised end of stage 4 is when to look at the GC in this race as we are now past the hazardous sprint stages for those fragile GC riders. Cataldo, Jungels and Arredondo are amongst those to have lost time in the early stages.

Three stages remain, two summit finishes and a 25km lumpy TT. Stage 5 is not too hard and I don't think there will be big time differences amongst the main contenders, stage 6 is attritional and should be good to watch as there are many short climbs.

And then a final TT to decide the winner!

Obviously we need to look at riders who can climb and who are at least not atrocious at a medium TT.

So who is left in with a shout;

Formolo, D Caruso, Priedler, Majka, Morabito, P Velits, Geniez, Monfort, Gesink, Weening, Sanchez, I Izaguirre, Brambilla, Henao, Deignan, Capecchi, Hesjedal, Zakarin, Inxausti, and Jungels/Cataldo at a minute behind the rest.

Majka is coming off a big TDF where he had to go deep to get the points jersey but he probably still is the best climber and has a solid TT. The price at under 3/1 is too short for me to be interested though.

It's difficult to know which Movistar rider to go for out of the options but ultimately I'm not sure any of them will be good enough, possibly I Izaguirre but again his price is too short for me.

The only rider I think with value in the market is Geniez at 66/1 with PP and 50/1 at B365. Geniez is a quality climber who is probably somewhat motivated by Pinot's exploits in the tour and is not too bad at a TT either, I was interested to see him do the French national's and finish only 2 minutes down on Chavanel over 48km which is a good effort. I am taking 0.75pts ew at the more available 50/1.

**update** Geniez Geniez Geniez, was awful coming in 12 minutes down in stage 5. Truly inexplicable amount of time, he must be ill or something. 

Tour of Poland stage 5

Classic tour of Poland stage. Time differences shouldn't be massive and suits a punchy climber with a decent finish.

Final 3km of the stage. The 16% section 200m from the end could just create the gap which wins this stage.

Looks tough but these climbs do not have big gradients.

Arredondo should be favourite for this stage. End of. One of the best climbers, and won't be marked as not in GC. The only doubt is his form but Trek have repeatedly said he will be ready.

I'm hoping Sebastian Henao has the same kind of punch his cousin has, if so this is a perfect stage for him.

1pt Arredondo WIN at 8/1

0.5pt Henao EW at 90/1.

H2H's

Henao v deignan 2.33 1.5pts Pinnacle
Geniez v vuillermoz 1.8 1.5pts Pinnacle

Result all bets lose. Grim.

Tour of Poland stage 3

Stage 3 in Poland and the organisers have come up with another sprint stage (SPOILER there's another one for stage 4 too).

We might see a break make it if its big enough but most likely another sprint.

I'm going with Jonas Van Genechten (can someone tell me if its Van Genechten of Vangenechten? as both iterations are around) of Lotto to get his chance to sprint after getting blocked in today, he's fast and it's likely to be another chaotic affair. 0.25 pts ew at 125/1 B365.

H2H treble

Lobato v bos, Farrar v maikin, Matthews v hutarovich 5/1 PP. 1pt

I'm also adding Modolo to win with Pinnacle at 12.63. 0.5pts.

Results ALL bets lose. Van Genechten wins the next stage instead ahead of guarnieri and mezgec.... told you he was fast.

Tour of Poland stage 2

Another long day awaits the peloton tomorrow with a 234km stage with a profile as follows;

                                                                                                                                                

Doesn't look like it is going to be windy enough to create any interest although what wind there is looks like a headwind for the whole route, so sounds like a sprint then.

Today's weather and crash chaos means pretty much all the sprinters of note aside from Hutarovich were not really involved or at least were not in position to be involved so form is still a bit of guesswork.

The finish is detailed below and we seem to have a corner very close to the finish indeed. On streetview the road where the finish line is has a fair few bollards and street furniture so I don't know if they are being removed or if we have a one lane finish. Either way it sounds a bit messy and to win the sprinter needs to be in the first five or six positions in this corner, so I will look towards who has the right train and is good at positioning.

I honestly fancy Tyler Farrar to go well today, Garmin were always around the front in stage 1 and they have a good team lined up to back Farrar.

H2H Farrar v Guarnieri 1.5 units at 1.77 Pinnacle WIN Farrar in 10th - Guarnieri 77th

Farrar win stage 0.5 units at 20/1 Bet365 Lose

Tour of Poland stage 1

Tour of Poland stage 1.

Quick blog here.

One of several sprint stages to start off the Tour of Poland, this is a long stage at 226k with a little bit of a lumpy final circuit. See procyclingstats profile here.

I think this is pretty tough after a lay off and I would prefer a rider who’s had some recent racing in the legs. I got a small stake on Debusschere of Lotto who is a sprinter with a good future and a recent win in Wallonie at 150s with PP. So I will stick with that I think for now, anything over 20/1 and I think that is value on him as this is really a third rate sprint field building for the Vuelta.

I will look at GC after the first four stages as I’m not sure there is anything to gain from GC bets before stage 5. I will revisit this post once other books price up.

0.2 pts ew if you can get it on.

**UPDATE** As PP have settled at 40s for a while I am going to record that as the price the blog achieves. 0.2pts ew at 40s.

**UPDATE**

On reflection I think Mezgec should be favourite for this stage as Modolo's condition is uncertain so I've gone 1pt win at 9/1 with PP.

**UPDATE**

Looks like Debus is a non starter, so PP have an escape and the 0.2 ew should be refunded.

I'm adding a head to head too, 1pt Bos v Modolo at 2.45 on Pinnacle.

Bos should have some shape following recent racing, Modolo tweeted five days ago that he would not be 100% in Poland but that he will try anyway.

I was tempted with backing the Lampre B team if Modolo's not feeling great but I think the risk is not worth it. Bonifazio is fast but will they go with Ferrari who hasn't raced since the Giro, and then will either podium? so I think the best option is to oppose in the H2H.

RESULT: Mezgec crashes with 150m to go, H2H wins as Bos 14th and Modolo nowhere. Profit of 0.45 units.