Tour of Poland stage 1.
Quick blog here.
One of several sprint stages to start off the Tour of
Poland, this is a long stage at 226k with a little bit of a lumpy final
circuit. See procyclingstats profile here.
I think this is pretty tough after a lay off and I would
prefer a rider who’s had some recent racing in the legs. I got a small stake on
Debusschere of Lotto who is a sprinter with a good future and a recent win in Wallonie
at 150s with PP. So I will stick with that I think for now, anything over 20/1 and I
think that is value on him as this is really a third rate sprint field building
for the Vuelta.
I will look at GC after the first four stages as I’m not
sure there is anything to gain from GC bets before stage 5. I will revisit this post once other books price up.
0.2 pts ew if you can get it on.
**UPDATE** As PP have settled at 40s for a while I am going to record that as the price the blog achieves. 0.2pts ew at 40s.
**UPDATE**
On reflection I think Mezgec should be favourite for this stage as Modolo's condition is uncertain so I've gone 1pt win at 9/1 with PP.
**UPDATE**
Looks like Debus is a non starter, so PP have an escape and the 0.2 ew should be refunded.
I'm adding a head to head too, 1pt Bos v Modolo at 2.45 on Pinnacle.
Bos should have some shape following recent racing, Modolo tweeted five days ago that he would not be 100% in Poland but that he will try anyway.
I was tempted with backing the Lampre B team if Modolo's not feeling great but I think the risk is not worth it. Bonifazio is fast but will they go with Ferrari who hasn't raced since the Giro, and then will either podium? so I think the best option is to oppose in the H2H.
RESULT: Mezgec crashes with 150m to go, H2H wins as Bos 14th and Modolo nowhere. Profit of 0.45 units.
0.2 pts ew if you can get it on.
**UPDATE** As PP have settled at 40s for a while I am going to record that as the price the blog achieves. 0.2pts ew at 40s.
**UPDATE**
On reflection I think Mezgec should be favourite for this stage as Modolo's condition is uncertain so I've gone 1pt win at 9/1 with PP.
**UPDATE**
Looks like Debus is a non starter, so PP have an escape and the 0.2 ew should be refunded.
I'm adding a head to head too, 1pt Bos v Modolo at 2.45 on Pinnacle.
Bos should have some shape following recent racing, Modolo tweeted five days ago that he would not be 100% in Poland but that he will try anyway.
I was tempted with backing the Lampre B team if Modolo's not feeling great but I think the risk is not worth it. Bonifazio is fast but will they go with Ferrari who hasn't raced since the Giro, and then will either podium? so I think the best option is to oppose in the H2H.
RESULT: Mezgec crashes with 150m to go, H2H wins as Bos 14th and Modolo nowhere. Profit of 0.45 units.
Hi. First of all thank you for the new blog. Very interesting. I don't really understand the system of points you're using, e.g. 0.2pts ew at 40s. I assume ew means the 3 first in the stage and 40s means the return of the bet, but I don't understand the meaning of 0.2pts.
ReplyDeleteThank you and sorry for my level of English.
Hi, thanks for reading, yes ew means each-way so usually that is split in two different bets, in this example 0.2 pts on to win at 40s and 0.2pts for a top 3 finish at 1/4 of the odds, in effect 0.2pts at 10s.
ReplyDeleteA points system is just a way of standardizing the betting stakes. Essentially all of your betting money (bank) equals 100pts, 0.2 pts would be 0.2% of your money. For example if my bank was £1000, 0.2pts ew would be £2 to win at 40s, and £2 for top 3 at 10s.
I hope that helps.