Tour of Britain stage 2

Stage 2 - 200km's of up and down terrain in Wales

The climb of Marine Drive is close to the finish with a 5km fast technical descent on tight roads, the profile looks pretty spiky but the scale is all important, the highest altitude is 200m so it is likely we get a sprint finish. 

It might be a good idea for teams to try and attack Wiggo and take a few seconds as sometimes our Knight of the realm doesn't always descend too well.

I think the profile does lend itself to a cheeky attack from an elite descender like Kwiatkowski or Chavanel but they are too short a price and I'm dubious about Kittel/Cav making it to this finish.

I'm going to have a small bet on some outsider sprinters here as this could be very chaotic and it will be difficult for teams to maintain position in the downhill to the line.

Colbrelli 66/1 0.3pts EW PP - Colbrelli is targeting this stage and has a fair turn of speed on him.
Bennett 18/1 1pt WIN WH - Bennett got caught on the wrong side of the road in today's sprint but NetApp bossed it in the run in and tomorrow is a big chance of a stage win.

Vuelta stage 14

This is the first really big test for the climbers. It's also quite long for a Vuelta stage at 200km, with what looks to be close to 65km of climbing.

The final few kilometers of the stage are really really steep, and if you think the break will make it you can only look at really high calibre climbers.

So what options do the teams have.

Lampre: Niemec, Serpa

AG2R: zilch

Astana: Landa (but may have to work for Aru)

Belkin: Ten Dam

BMC: Nerz (not convinced he is good enough, Evans seems cooked).

Caja Rural: Expect someone like Txurruka to get into the break but not good enough either.

Cannondale: Bennett

Cofidis: Bagot, Coppel - but I wouldn't be happy with my money on them even if they did make the break

Europcar: zilch

FDJ: zilch

Garmin: Hesjedal, Cardoso, Talansky

Giant: zilch, all to support Barguil

IAM: zilch (Tschopp hopefully for our KOM bet but I don't think he is strong enough to win).

Katusha: all for Jrod

Lotto: Monfort (although he has looked v ropey in last few stages).

Movistar: I wouldn't be surprised if they put more than one from Herrada, Izaguirre, Amador, Moreno into the break to force Tinkoff to work all day.

MTN-Quebeka: Kudus, Meintjes, both good options.

OPQS: Poels

Orica: Yates (may be on Chaves duty though).

Sky: Kennaugh, Cataldo, Kiri, Nieve

Trek: Arredondo, Zubeldia

I think we look towards a break today as there is a lot of work to be done between 140km and 190km where I can't see who drives it with enough confidence to bring a break back, Tinkoff won't as they risk exposing Bertie to bonus seconds, Movistar/Katusha should fear Valverde/Jrod being dropped by Bertie on the last climb and won't want to use men up.

My break punts will be the following, Meintjes (100/1 PP), Kudus (200/1 Various), Poels (250/1 Laddies), Kennaugh (250/1 BV). 0.2pts on each to win.

If it looks like its a GC finish then I will go again inplay.

H2H's

Ten Dam v txurruka 2.73 1pt Pinnacle - Weird one this, Ten Dam is just as likely to go in a break as txurruka but is a better climber so why is he the massive outsider? I don't get it so its a bet for me.

Gesink v navarro 2.46 1pt Pinnacle - I presume this H2H came up as Navarro was 9th and Gesink 10th in stage 11. Gesink put in an impressive attack that day and I think he's in better shape than Navarro for a test like this.

Martin v sanchez 2.00 1pt Pinnacle - see above, exactly the same reasoning.

Pardilla v anacona 8/11 0.75pt Ladbrokes - I suspect anacona could fade pretty rapidly in the coming days.

Chaves v nieve 1.95 0.75pt Pinnacle - Chaves is for GC and nieve is for Froome, Chaves is fading but this is a good climb for him so I favour him here.

Vuelta stage 12

A short flat stage.

A couple of corners in the last 2km but an over 1km long straight to finish.

In this kind of stage I like to back Guardini, he has a really high top speed when he can wind himself up. Bouhanni is an obvious favourite but is far too short to be backed.

1pt Guardini EW 33/1 Paddypower

Vuelta stage 11

After a brief blog hiatus I am back. I think I'm learning a lot through this process and hopefully can start to do a bit better as I'm having a lot of ups and downs and the P/L is basically nada either way!

This stage is nondescript until the final climb which is below;

It's a nasty one as most of the Mountain top finishes will be from here on in. Either from the break or the GC riders you have to be a good climber to win this. 

Now on twitter after the end of the TT I was pretty annoyed as a lot of my bets went out the window and I rather rashly plumped 2pts on Bertie at 2/1. Very tight odds but if this comes to a GC finish who is going to beat him so it could be worse. Even if I did it without thinking too much this still needs to count in the P/L as the rule is if I tweet with a points allocation it counts (other suggestions are not for the blog).

So we have a GC finish covered with my least favourite rider, now for the more exciting break options.

These are my shortlisted break candidates

Lampre - Niemec, Serpa

Astana - Kangert

BMC - Nerz, Evans

Caja Rural - LLS, Arroyo

Cannondale - Bennett

Cofidis - Coppel, Bagot

Europcar - Sicard

FDJ - Ellissonde

Garmin - Cardoso

IAM - Tschopp

Katusha - Trofimov, Chernetckii

Lotto - VDB, De Clercq

Movistar - Izaguirre

MTN - Kudus, Meintjes

Orica - Clarke

Sky - Nieve

Trek - Zubeldia

And now I've named half the field, these are my picks, they are all 0.2pts ew with Boyles to four places.

Kangert 125/1 - Kangert came into this race with a rare opportunity to be a joint leader, sadly that chance has now gone but he is still in good shape and is an experienced GT rider, he put in a good TT and a stage win must now be his target.

Evans 100/1 - Evans is a wily old dog who knows how to win stages, he did a brilliant TT without needing too and hopefully that means he has good form despite not being BMCs leader.

Nieve 100/1 - Nieve is climbing well and might just get the freedom to attack for a win on a climb he knows well (@gizza_tips highlighted this), this could potentially come from a break or a tactical GC battle.

Kudus 200/1 - Kudus is a climbing phenomenon and in some point he will shine in this race after a tough start, hopefully this stage will be that day.

De Clerq 100/1 - Another good climber who did a reasonably TT without really needing too, he could easily take out a climb of this nature from a break.

Zubeldia 250/1 - Zubeldia was climbing really well, but then he got taken out by the abrupt change in temperature and lost 15mins so stage wins are now his target, this stage should be better for him and the price is way too big. (This is with Ladbrokes to 3 places, same stake as the rest).

GP Ouest France - Plouay

So it's another of the Autumn classics, the route this year has been slightly altered to make it a harder race, I'm not going to go into full detail mode (cyclingquotes has a great preview, read that).

The final 14km.

This race should be very active as there are a mix of lineups, a few teams like Katusha, Trek, Giant are here for a sprint with Kristoff, Nizzolo and Mezgec. Other teams are covering all the bases with a variety of attacking talent and the race should contain a lot of attacking.

Interestingly as far as I can see Katusha are only lining up with 6 riders to including Kristoff so he will need to be extra strong and every team will know it would be good to isolate Kristoff as he has gone up a level this year and is rightly the favourite for this race.

I suspect that if we get the right attack then Katusha will be left to chase and may not be strong enough to do so.

Really for this I want riders who could either go in a move or contend in a sprint. The name of that rider is Gerrans. 1pt at 12s with bv.

Nizzolo goes really well here too and I have taken 0.5pts ew at 18s with PP.

Alaphillipe is having a great year and I like him too. 0.5pts ew 66s.

Also done a Nizzolo/Valverde (vuelta stage) double 0.3pts 85/1.

Vuelta stage 7

Need to end a poor run for my blog bets and this stage would be a good point for that to happen!

The final 5km

The last 6km average out at about 3% and this should be an uphill sprint of some description.

Now in my short guide to the Vuelta in my favourite spreadsheet in the world (my bet tracker sheet) I had recorded this as "hard sprinter/fast climber". This should hold as long as a break does not succeed. The issue here is who does that chasing, Orica should be pretty tired after working for Matthews and then Chaves/Yates today, so maybe Giant will help for Degenkolb but this is right on the edge of his capabilities. 

I think this is a 50/50 between a break staying away and it being a an uphill drag finish.

One rider who could feasibly do both but probably suits a sprint more is Martens of Belkin, if Belkin do not get in the break they may lend a hand to set up a sprint.

For the break Simon Clarke of Orica could be a threat, a serial break rider with a sharp sprint and former KOM winner in the Vuelta.

I want two other picks for the break, they are Jungels and Bouet

Bets - Martens 50/1 0.4pts ew, Clarke, Bouet, Jungels all 200/1 0.2pts ew each Paddypower.

Vuelta stage 6

So got stage 5 totally wrong but there you go, it happens. This stage is one that probably 20 riders have earmarked in their road books.

The final climb is what is important here, 4.5km at a constant 10% on a pretty straight road. This will be very rapid and I can't see beyond the quality operators in the field.

I have a list of 10-12 riders who can win this. 

I'm expecting Froome to test his rivals with a strong push and anyone who wants to win this will need to be able to follow him. I think enough riders will be fresh enough to be able to follow Froome and can see Froome getting outsprinted at the finish, although if Froome's odds are big enough I will be on.

A few riders have explicitly named this stage as a target including Yates, Arredondo and Dan Martin. Yates has had a super year and has a great punchy finish but this is exalted company and a win could be hard but has a shot at a podium if its raced the right way. Arredondo doesn't seem to be in good enough shape. Dan Martin ticks all the boxes really and is one of my favourites for the stages.

Katusha bring a good double threat with Moreno and Jrod, from the two I would prefer Jrod.

Quintana is obviously a great climber but this is too short a climb for me to back him, I doubt he will lose any time though. Valverde has a brilliant uphill sprint which is why he's so good in Fleche Wallone.

Other riders I have considered include Kelderman, Contador, D Caruso, Evans, Chaves, Uran.

0.5pts Martin WIN 7/1 Betvictor

0.3pts ew Yates 33/1 Betvictor

I may come back