Vuelta stage 5

Sadly yesterday's stage proved too hard for my picks. Today we get another climb before a sprint finish.

This length of climb worries me for Bouhanni, all in all this is 23km drag with two steeper km to finish when I would expect some hard attacks from good climbers which could cause Bouhanni and a lot of other sprinters to blow. So I'm definitely not going hard at this but I do want some small picks.

I've gone for two K's both 0.3pts ew at 100s.

Kolobnev - Got 6th today so clearly in good shape.

Kelderman - Wilco has a good sprint and is always a good rider to keep onside when there is a late climb.

Vuelta stage 4

I was thinking to myself before this tour which out of the Giro/Vuelta has the really good road book? Turns out its the Giro, the Vuelta roadbook contains almost no useful information beyond the basics.

Here is today's profile.

The cat 2 that peaks with 26km to go is about 8km at 5% with some higher gradients but no km averages more than 6%, I think there will be some attacks over this but I suspect FDJ and particularly Giant will be very keen to race for a sprint as it's too far from the finish for a GC man to attack on the climb so I don't see why a GC team would want to waste too much energy to ramp up the pace. Therefore Orica, FDJ and Giant to share duties controlling the breakaway.

So presuming we get a sprint the finish is a very slight 1% drag with a few sharp corners in the last 5km.

It is very very hard to see past Bouhanni again today. 1.5pts 2/1 Various

Debus for the podium! 0.5pts ew 40/1 Various

Vuelta stage 3.

Onto Vuelta stage 3, a couple of climbs in the middle to get rid of bouhanni and then a punchy finish.

According to cyclingstage.com (top site) the final little rise is 1500m at 4.5% with 300m slightly downhill from there which looks about right. I think we need to look towards the hard sprinters here and I do not think this is a GC stage.

Therefore the stage winner books look quite attractive and the three favourites should be Degs, Matthews and Sagan. I'm backing Matthews as he's in good shape and I'm very confident he will be in the mix, Degenkolb is rapid but I'm worried he could be dropped and never get back on and who knows whether Sagan will be bothered to try.

Small ew bets on Boonen and Stuyven at 150s as well, Boonen can't win on a flat finish versus this field but after a punchy hill he could, Stuyven got fourth in stage 2 on the flat but is more dangerous in stages with hills.


1pt ew Matthews 9/1 PP
0.2pt ew Boonen 150/1 PP
0.2pts ew Stuyven 150/1 PP

Vuelta stage 1 TTT

The first stage of the Vuelta is a short TTT. Its flat and technical and will favour teams with powerhouse riders and good technical skills.

I have two picks at the moment.

2pts Trek win at 9/4, Betvictor

Trek have a lineup with 4 elite TT riders in it, and specifically TT riders who are good over a short distance, Cancellara, Vandewalle, Sergent, Jungels and Popovych is formidable and for me the strongest unit here.


0.25pts ew Giant 300/1 Coral

Giant are rightly outsiders as they do not have a good track record in TTT's but this kind of course could almost be a long leadout for a sprint which Giant are king at. The explosivity required out of the numerous corners on the circuit could favour a sprint heavy team like Giant, I sort of get the sense that over the long term Giant would like to be competitive in TTT's and they have been working on it. Arndt did a good TT recently and Ludviggson, Haga and Craddock are very solid also. Time differences over a short distance will be very small and Giant have a chance.



H2H's

1.5pts Lotto v Tinkoff 11/10 Various.- I think Lotto have a solid team for this and should go top 6. I fear for Tinkoff in this, late team changes, contador coming back from a broken leg, could well be a no risk approach for them.


H2H Accumulator

0.4pts Lotto, Belkin, Katusha, Cofidis, OPQS to win their PP head to heads. 29/1.

Vuelta antepost

For those of you who have read my tweets before a GT before it won't surprise you that I usually like to get pretty involved in the range of markets that GT's allows compared to normal races. This blog post is to record those bets.

GC

Horner Podium finish 9/1 1.5pts BetVictor - Horner is coming out of Utah in decent form and his shape has to be about the same as last year when he proved he can slay if not a class field than an in form Nibali. 9/1 to podium is IMO really good value. HORNER DNS THIS WILL BE REFUNDED.



KOM

Looking at the route I'm not totally convinced a GC rider will win this so I'm going to take two small punts on riders at big odds. 0.2pts ew on both.

Meintjes - 100/1, PP, B365, a super talent riding in a team that will look for a prize like this when probably a GC top 10 is out of range for their GC man Pardilla. Meintjes said he's going to target a couple of stages and has the climbing ability to go well in the KOM.

Tschopp - 500/1, PP, this is a long shot, IAM like MTN-Quebeka best hopes of making an impact in the Vuelta are through stage wins or a side prize like KOM. Tschopp is a good but not stellar climber but could have the legs and consistency to get through the tour picking up points.



POINTS

For me the GC is hard to call between Quintana and Froome and I can see why Quintana leads the points classification markets as he will be favourite in every summit finish and there is no bias towards sprinters in the Vuelta for points. However Froome is proven to be as good a climber as Quintana so I don't expect much between Quintana and Froome in terms of placings in the summit finishes.

However as far as I can see (without any kind of public roadbook online anywhere), the TT's will also count towards the points classification. Now here I expect Froome to be right up there with the elite TT riders in the race whereas Quintana although much improved is not at that level.

Therefore I'm having 2pts win of Froome for Points classification at 8/1 (Ladbrokes).


I also think there is enough points available for a hard sprinter to get involved on the podium as the sprint field is not strong minus Bouhanni who will be favourite for the pure sprint stages. The rider I want for this ew is Michael Matthews, he's having a great season, has every chance to come second behind Bouhanni in the pure sprints and should compete on two or three harder stages when Bouhanni, Guardini etc will be dropped. Matthews can also get a few points on the short TT if motivated.

Another thought on this is if Quintana goes out and destroys everyone on stage 9 or 11 then breaks will be much more likely to make it in the following summit days reducing GC riders points opportunities.

Matthews 0.2pts ew PP.


POINTS H2H

Debusschere v Hutarovich 1.5pts 2.3 Pinnacle - Debus is faster, has a better team, and a bit more resilient to hills than Hutarovich so hopefully will have more opportunities to get points.


TOP 10

Kangert 1pt 5/1 Skybet - Kangert is a proven three week rider scoring a couple of top 15's in support of Nibali, in this Vuelta he goes in as joint leader with Aru.

Uran 1.5pts 5/6 Skybet - Uran is a proven three week podium rider, this field looks a bit too strong for him but a top 10 should be the minimum he's hoping for.


TEAM CLASSIFICATION H2H

Double - Giant v iam, OPQS v ag2r 2pts 6/5 888 or other Kambi platforms.

Treble - Astana v lampre, Cannondale v europcar, Belkin v garmin 1pt 7/4 888

8 fold - the above 5 and MTN v orica, Movistar v katusha, FDJ v trek 0.5pt 30/1 888

Eneco Stage 7

Right I'm back for the final Eneco stage, which is basically a bit like the Amstel Gold race. After taking the stage and race win today Tim Wellens will need to be able to cover relentless attacks from a very very strong Boom and the rest of the contenders as well.

The good news for Tim is that he has a stronger team than Dumoulin and should be able to rely on Vanendert to work for him shutting down attacks plus in any kind of bunch sprint Wellens has a good sprint. This will mean that Belkin will try and make the day a hard one and hope Wellens suffers. Also BMC will probably try and set up the race for Gilbert and GVA again, and the bonus seconds at sprint points should be a target for belkin as well. So its hard to see how a break stays away.

I think we will see another day of relentless attacks but the most likely scenario for me is a reduced bunch sprint from the GC men.

I'm going for Keukeleire again today. 1pt win at 20/1 BV

I'm also going to have a bit of Breschel. 0.4pt win at 40/1 BV

Eneco Tour stage 5

A chaotic final sprint as predicted but the main contenders got through so no sprint surprises. The next stage is the first of three GC deciding days as cobbled hills are the order of the day.

In previous years this finish on the Geraardsbergen wall has been the finale of the race and was won by Stybar last year from Stannard, and Ballan from Boom in 2012.

Doubt there will be any surprises in this stage and the winner should come from the following;

Terpstra, Boom, Vanmarcke, Vanendert, Wellens, Gilbert, Quinziato, GVA, Cancellara, Marcato, Thomas, Langeveld, Keukeleire.

I like Keukeleire most here, he loves a cobble and I regularly back him on such terrain, Vanmarcke has looked super strong but got hit hard by a flying bike today so I don't think he can be backed with confidence. I would prefer Quinziato over the other two BMC riders as he's previously done well here and has looked in great shape.

Keukeleire 0.75pts ew 50/1 PP
Quinziato 0.4pts ew 50/1 PP
Dillier 0.1pts ew 500/1 PP (I had to take this because Dillier is a rider who one day will win me a lot).

H2Hs

Keukeleire v breschel 1.5pts 1.719 Pinnacle
Wellens v koren 1pt 1.793 Pinnacle
Marcato v gilbert 0.5pt 2.49 Pinnacle
Quinziato v gva 0.75pt 2.83 Pinnacle
Langeveld v de vreese 1.2pts 1.74 Pinnacle