Tour of Poland stage 6

So after today's calamityfor my bets it's time for what should be the most interesting stage in this Tour of Poland, multiple climbs and an all guns blazing Movistar team should make this exciting.

Movistar finished today's stage with four riders in the top 15, surely they will try and isolate majka with multiple attacks and it will be interesting to see how he copes.

Niemec looked strong today so I think I will back him 0.5pts ew at 25/1 Bet365.

H2h's

Formolo v barguil 1.9 0.75pts Pinnacle
Cattaneo v warbasse 1.8 0.75pts Pinnacle

Tour of Poland GC

So as promised end of stage 4 is when to look at the GC in this race as we are now past the hazardous sprint stages for those fragile GC riders. Cataldo, Jungels and Arredondo are amongst those to have lost time in the early stages.

Three stages remain, two summit finishes and a 25km lumpy TT. Stage 5 is not too hard and I don't think there will be big time differences amongst the main contenders, stage 6 is attritional and should be good to watch as there are many short climbs.

And then a final TT to decide the winner!

Obviously we need to look at riders who can climb and who are at least not atrocious at a medium TT.

So who is left in with a shout;

Formolo, D Caruso, Priedler, Majka, Morabito, P Velits, Geniez, Monfort, Gesink, Weening, Sanchez, I Izaguirre, Brambilla, Henao, Deignan, Capecchi, Hesjedal, Zakarin, Inxausti, and Jungels/Cataldo at a minute behind the rest.

Majka is coming off a big TDF where he had to go deep to get the points jersey but he probably still is the best climber and has a solid TT. The price at under 3/1 is too short for me to be interested though.

It's difficult to know which Movistar rider to go for out of the options but ultimately I'm not sure any of them will be good enough, possibly I Izaguirre but again his price is too short for me.

The only rider I think with value in the market is Geniez at 66/1 with PP and 50/1 at B365. Geniez is a quality climber who is probably somewhat motivated by Pinot's exploits in the tour and is not too bad at a TT either, I was interested to see him do the French national's and finish only 2 minutes down on Chavanel over 48km which is a good effort. I am taking 0.75pts ew at the more available 50/1.

**update** Geniez Geniez Geniez, was awful coming in 12 minutes down in stage 5. Truly inexplicable amount of time, he must be ill or something. 

Tour of Poland stage 5

Classic tour of Poland stage. Time differences shouldn't be massive and suits a punchy climber with a decent finish.

Final 3km of the stage. The 16% section 200m from the end could just create the gap which wins this stage.

Looks tough but these climbs do not have big gradients.

Arredondo should be favourite for this stage. End of. One of the best climbers, and won't be marked as not in GC. The only doubt is his form but Trek have repeatedly said he will be ready.

I'm hoping Sebastian Henao has the same kind of punch his cousin has, if so this is a perfect stage for him.

1pt Arredondo WIN at 8/1

0.5pt Henao EW at 90/1.

H2H's

Henao v deignan 2.33 1.5pts Pinnacle
Geniez v vuillermoz 1.8 1.5pts Pinnacle

Result all bets lose. Grim.

Denmark stage 1

Just had a very brief look at this stage and I like the h2h of guardini v napolitano at 2.14 with Pinnacle.

2pt bet.

On phone so the blog is a bit sparse.

Result WIN neither sprinted but Guardini finished ahead of Napo.

I also advised a 0.5 stake on Guardini at 14s on twitter but Guardini was no where to be seen so that's a loss. 1.78pts up today.

Tour of Poland stage 3

Stage 3 in Poland and the organisers have come up with another sprint stage (SPOILER there's another one for stage 4 too).

We might see a break make it if its big enough but most likely another sprint.

I'm going with Jonas Van Genechten (can someone tell me if its Van Genechten of Vangenechten? as both iterations are around) of Lotto to get his chance to sprint after getting blocked in today, he's fast and it's likely to be another chaotic affair. 0.25 pts ew at 125/1 B365.

H2H treble

Lobato v bos, Farrar v maikin, Matthews v hutarovich 5/1 PP. 1pt

I'm also adding Modolo to win with Pinnacle at 12.63. 0.5pts.

Results ALL bets lose. Van Genechten wins the next stage instead ahead of guarnieri and mezgec.... told you he was fast.

Tour of Poland stage 2

Another long day awaits the peloton tomorrow with a 234km stage with a profile as follows;

                                                                                                                                                

Doesn't look like it is going to be windy enough to create any interest although what wind there is looks like a headwind for the whole route, so sounds like a sprint then.

Today's weather and crash chaos means pretty much all the sprinters of note aside from Hutarovich were not really involved or at least were not in position to be involved so form is still a bit of guesswork.

The finish is detailed below and we seem to have a corner very close to the finish indeed. On streetview the road where the finish line is has a fair few bollards and street furniture so I don't know if they are being removed or if we have a one lane finish. Either way it sounds a bit messy and to win the sprinter needs to be in the first five or six positions in this corner, so I will look towards who has the right train and is good at positioning.

I honestly fancy Tyler Farrar to go well today, Garmin were always around the front in stage 1 and they have a good team lined up to back Farrar.

H2H Farrar v Guarnieri 1.5 units at 1.77 Pinnacle WIN Farrar in 10th - Guarnieri 77th

Farrar win stage 0.5 units at 20/1 Bet365 Lose

San Sebastian

Clasica San Sebastian

This Spanish classic is usually a bit chaotic and it shouldn’t be any different this year. What is different is the addition of a final loop around San Sebastian to give the area some more TV time rather than just a few minutes at the finish. I think that’s fair enough and in adding the loop they have added a punchy additional climb to go after the traditional selection at the Jaizkibel climb which used to come 40km from the end but now is more like 54km from the finish.

Pushing the Jaizkibel further from the finish should change the race a little and should mean more tempo riding instead of big attacks as it is too far out and the climbers know the hard final climb will be decisive. The last climb looks about 2km long with 6% (km 1) 10% (km 2) gradients with peaks of 22% apparently, whoever wins is going to get up here very fast indeed, and on tired legs an already reduced peloton of say 30-40 riders is going to quickly shatter.

This is a picture from Markel Irizar’s twitter feed during Trek’s recon of the final climb. It’s steep.

And this is a video of the same final climb.

Traditionally this race has attracted Ardennes classics men and climbers and I think the additional climb moves this further towards the pure climbers. I expect Movistar to ride a hard tempo on the Jaizkibel and control speculative attacks; they might get help from AG2R too who have to be confident following the Tour.

A hard tempo is necessary to eliminate or at least put lead into the legs of riders like Meersman, Navardauskas and of course Sagan.

When the final climb begins I think AG2R will start it at a brutal pace and when it really ramps up Bardet will launch. Bardet is coming into this off a seriously impressive tour where he faded a little into 6^th place in the GC but Bardet is also handy in the Ardennes and is the first rider I am looking towards.

Valverde should really be favourite as in theory this suits him perfectly but a lot of races suit Valverde perfectly. For me he often doesn’t do as well as he should and like last year’s race he can suffer from the same lack of co-operation that Sagan suffers from. Allied to that Valverde seemed really tired at the end of the Tour. I find it hard to back Valverde generally and that’s not just because I don’t like him, he’s too inconsistent for my cash.

My secondary pick is going to Bauke Mollema. I know he did what can only be described as one of the worst TT’s I have ever seen at the end of the Tour but I don’t think that is indicative of his actual condition (he was on a new TT bike) and he has form in this race, last year he was 9^th after finishing the Tour very tired. This year I think he is in better shape and his poor TT might give value.

Both Bardet and Mollema have decent kicks and other riders I considered were Martin (unsure on condition), the Yates brothers (probably Adam over Simon), Roche and the enigma of Dani Moreno. I’m hoping this will be a 3-4 man select finish without Valverde there!

Bets

0.5 points ew on Bardet 33s and Mollema 40s,

Result - Bardet was set up to go and had nothing, Mollema got a fine second for an EW return. 3.5pts profit on winner picks.

H2H's

1 pt Kruijswijk v Ten Dam 2.20 Pinnacle - Kruijswijk aiming for good result I think Ten Dam is less motivated. WIN 1.2pts profit

1 pt Schleck v Arroyo 1.961 Pinnacle - Schleck was decent in the Tour and I don't think I could grow a beard the last time Arroyo did anything. LOSE -1pt

0.5 pts Navadauskas v Meersman 3.00 Pinnacle - 50/50 shot for me so odds are big. REFUNDED

OVERALL RESULT: +3.7pts