Giro D'Italia 2015 - The big blog

Hello all, after a hiatus I am back with a blog on the upcoming Giro. Moving towards more quality less quantity blogs going forward... so here we go it's the Giro!

Disclosure - I love the Giro, there is no betting information in this blog.

The Giro gives us brilliant racing generally and is usually a bit more exciting and open than the TDF as there are less dominant riders and more opportunities for quality riders to get Grand Tour success.

There are plenty of places you can get really in-depth route information and I would point you towards the likely daily previews by cyclingquotes whose course analysis is pretty in depth and more than I can be bothered to regurgitate here.

What I will concentrate upon is the teams, riders and what I think might happen on each day and who I think will come out on top in each of the jersey categories.


Route

To be honest I think this is the easiest Giro route I can remember in some time and there are a fair few nothing stages thrown in as the organisers look to make the Giro less demanding and reduce the transfers in between the stages.

There are several stages which look like nailed on sprints (2, 4, 6, 10, 13, 17, 21) so I'm not going to look at those too much in this section, they will be a pure sprint and a pretty boring watch aside from the last 15km.

Stage 1 is the TTT, a discipline which seems to be a bit more popular this year with it's inclusion in the TDF, whilst not defining the race it will put certain riders on the back foot from the get go as some of the teams look really weak for a TTT.


Stage 3 looks a bit tricky for pure sprinters, but there aren't too many of those here. I would worry about Kittel or say Guardini were they here on the climbs at in the first two thirds of the stage but only the sprinters who come in a bit below par will struggle.

Stage 4 is one of several that will be on the punchy sprinters hit list.

Stage 5 is the first summit finish, a long drag up Monte Gomito to Abetone, it will be done at pace probably led by a Skytrain, doubtful of any big gaps but if anyone cracks here by more than 30 seconds they have 0 hope for the overall.

Stage 7 is a weird one, 264km it looks like they are trying to put a mini San Remo into the Giro as the profile gets harder towards the end of the stage. I love how the roadbook describes the home straight for this stage...

"The home straight is 350m long, on 7m wide asphalt road, with a gentle 3-4% gradient"

I doubt it'll feel gentle after 264km especially if the weather is a touch grim, could be a break, could be a sprint, either way the GC guys will need to be weary of time gaps up a drag like that.

Stage 8 is the second summit finish and will be a bit more tricky than the first for our GC guys, we should see the first real tells of who is riding well here as the stage is fought out amongst the big names. Whoever gets pink here should hold it until the ITT a week later.

Stage 9 is another could be a tough sprinter day or a break takes it, same with stage 11.

Stage 12 is a bit of a wall finish for our puncheurs and quick climbers.

Stage 14 is the monstrously long ITT. 59.4km! I love watching ITTs and this should be enthralling as massive time gaps will emerge. It's a bit up and down so it has something for the climbers, a real test after two weeks of racing.

Stage 15 sees another summit finish on the Madonna di Campiglio which is a long steady climb which should be very attritional.

Stage 16 comes after the final rest day and will certainly be an exciting day. The final climb is a cat 3 which isn't too tough on its own but it comes after a long descent off the Passo del Mortirolo which is a horrible climb, regularly at 12% with higher percentage sections as well. This stage will be critical in the GC.

Stage 18 screams breakaway and we may see a very rapid descent amongst the favourites especially if Richie and his tarmac loving colleagues are still in the mix, the descent is tricky so we might see two battles going on between the break and the GC guys.

Stage 19 has a tough but not crazy tough profile on first glance but this is a 236 km stage which will make this a hard summit day for our riders before stage 20's defining stage....

Stage 20 will be a fun watch! 150km's of nothing interesting which may or may not build up the tension, and then Colle delle Finestre followed by Sestriere.

That light grey section on the Finestre marks the gravel section that isn't proper tarmac. The climb is hard enough without that! Anyway this will be dramatic and really is a great way to keep tension in the race even if gaps are sizeable, have a bad day here and you will lose minutes.

Then stage 21 is a flat day to parade from Torino to Milan.

So that's the route, it's quite varied but the key days look to be 8, 14, 15, 16, 19 and 20 for the GC.


Teams

I'm going to go through who each team brings to the party and what the teams goals are likely to be, we have the usual WT teams plus wildcards in Androni, Bardiani, CCC, Nippo Fantini, and Southeast.

I'll do it alphabetically to avoid favouritism (go Orica-Greenedge!) and put in bold the key riders.


AG2R La Mondiale - Pozzovivo, Berard, Betancur, Domont, Dupont, Gretsch, Houle, Montaguti, Nocentini

Pozz should give AG2R a top ten GC at the very worst and realistically he should be targeting a top 4 GC finish. It's hard to see how he'll really challenge the top top guys as he's not a better climber and definitely a worse TT rider than several. The rest of the team will be peppering the breakaways whilst Gretsch and Houle should curb losses in the TTT as they are solid riders. The sprint stages are basically rest days for AG2R as they have no one to contend.


Androni Giocattoli - Pellizotti, Appollonio, Bandiera, Dall'Antonia, Frapporti, Gatto, Stortoni, Tvetcov, Zilioli

Androni will need to make sure they are in the breaks to get some TV time. It will be interesting to see how Tvetcov and Zilioli get on in such a long race as they are definitely talented but yet to really shine. Gatto could go close to a win on several punchy stages and they should focus on breaks and supporting him on those stages. Pellizotti presumably will lead on the GC but considering that TT I think it might be smarter for them to target the KOM jersey with Franco P as that might be more worthwhile for the team than 10-20th in GC.


Astana Pro Team - Aru, Cataldo, Kangert, Landa, Malacarne, Rosa, LL Sanchez, Tiralongo, Zeits

A very strong climbing focussed team to support Aru. Aru exploded onto the scene last year with 3rd in the Giro and 5th in the Vuelta which was very impressive, yet to revisit those heights again this year and he's recently been ill but he is a valid threat for the win. He will need to be at the top of his game climbing wise because he should lose a fair bit in the long individual time trial. I don't think the illness of recent times should effect him much and I think he'll be close to the podium again as a lot of the climbs suit him quite well.


Bardiani-CSF Pro Team - Bongiorno, Barbin, Battaglin, Boem, Chirico, Colbrelli, Pirazzi, Ruffoni, Zardini

Poor Barbin, Boem and Chirico! They are not going to have a lot of fun in the Giro. Bardiani have basically brought all of their best riders to the race, which is fair enough as the Giro is very important to the Italian teams and the Italian sponsors. I really think Bardiani are going to shine bright in this Giro, really good riders who could slot into a WT team. They will be a threat in every stage, I'm not so certain for the GC but in the riders I have highlighted above they have some serious stage hunters at their disposal. In addition the climbers of Bongiorno, Pirazzi and Zardini have shown really good form in the last week or two. If I'm in Bardiani DS shoes then I tell Zardini to go for KOM and Pirazzi/Bongiorno for GC as they can TT a bit better but it could well be the other way round. Pan flat days its for Ruffoni, slightly harder days Colbrelli and harder still Battaglin who showed last year he's a threat from the break as well. I really like this line up and we'll see a lot of them on our screens.


BMC Racing Team - Gilbert, Atapuma, Bookwalter, Burghardt, Caruso, Dillier, Kung, Lodewyck, Zabel

Kind of a mixed squad for BMC as they are still looking for someone to step up and fill the Cadel Evans sized hole in their GC riders, Caruso should be the lead guy with Atapuma to target a stage or two (maybe KOM). Not sure what Gilbert's goals are here but in shape he will threaten on the punchy stages. Dillier and Kung are huge talents and will help the TTT effort.


CCC Sprandi Polkowice - Paterski, Bole, Marycz, Matysiak, Mihaylov, Owsian, Rutkiewicz, Samoilau, Szmyd

The polish squad bring a good team of solid Poles to support there triple probably stage threat. Paterski has really shone in the last few weeks here, memorably winning the first stage in Catalunya and then winning the Tour of Croatia the following week. Szmyd is a solid rider for the mountains and will be targeting a top 10 in GC and Bole will threaten in the harder sprints. But forget all that... the real story is that they have a nice new bus for the Giro! It's big and it's orange.

pic courtesy of @tomek_bojan

Etixx-Quick Step  - Uran, Boonen, Bouet, Brambilla, De La Cruz, Keisse, Sabatini, Serry, Vakoc

Rigoberto Uran returns to the Giro to try and go one better than last year when he finished runner up. Rigo has been solid if not spectacular this year and the ITT will be all important for him as he is really formidable in the long TT discipline. However his build up this year has been more impressive than last year so there is no reason to suspect he won't go well, I'm a touch worried about his support though. Someone out of Brambilla, De La Cruz or Bouet is going to have to step up to be that luxury mountain domestique that the other teams have to support there leaders or otherwise he will be isolated quickly and frequently in the key stages. I also think they will not live up to Etixx's usual high standard in the TTT as aside from Uran himself I don't see who put the monster turns in that are necessary. I am struggling to put Rigo on the podium but as a consolation for Rigo I will include a picture from his shop.....

FDJ - Geniez, Courteille, Elissonde, Fischer, Le Bon, Mourey, Pineau, Roux, Veikkanen

No bolds here, it will be interesting to see how Elissonde and Geniez do, they both are clearly good climbers who have yet to kick on and really threaten, I don't know how much time they have left to show their class. No sprint threat, will have to be active in the breaks.


IAM Cycling - Chavanel, Chevrier, Clement, Haussler, Kluge, Pelucchi, Pineau, Reichenbach, Saramotins

The swiss team are looking to Reichenbach for the big climbs and GC. At his very best he might top 10 just. Stage hunters again. Pelucchi will need to be quicker than he was in Yorkshire this week to win one of the sprint stages but he will be up there.


Lampre-Merida - Ulissi, Conti, Ferrari, Grmay, Modolo, Mori, Niemec, Richeze, Xu

Diego returns to the scene of the crime, last year I laid him for top 3 in the long TT for a fair amount of money, silly Patrick. Ulissi has shown signs that his form is returning after his enforced lay off and several stages should suit him as he is a quick finisher who can win out of select groups. Modolo will be their man for the sprints and he may well be peaking at the right time as he was competitive versus Cavendish in Turkey and bagged himself a win in the uphill sprint stage. Niemec is most likely to lead the GC charge, a good climber whose TT lets him down, he has a fair shot at a top 10 finish and could take a stage.


Lotto-Soudal - Van den Broeck, Armee, Bak, Broeckx, Greipel, Hansen, Henderson, Monfort, Vervaeke

VDB is showing signs of returning to form, at his best he is a valid rider for the podium but it has been some time since he's shown that kind of ability, but he put in a really good TT in Romandie and I think it's contract year so he has to shine. Greipel is the fastest pure sprinter here on paper and despite not having his full leadout he does have Hendo at his service and will expect to win a couple of stages which is what he's here for as Lotto want WT points, not sure he'll do the whole race though as the Tour beckons.

Movistar Team - Intxausti, Amador, Capecchi, Fernandez, Herrada, I Izaguirre, Lobato, D Quintana, Visconti

Interesting selection from Movistar who are letting their young talent have a crack without being burdened by big Quintana and Valverde. I really hope Izaguirre does well as I had a sneaky bet on him at 500/1, the course suits but a top 10 is more likely I think. Lobato had a great start to the year but had faded a bit since, he'll be Movistar's man for any kind of fast finish.


Nippo Vini-Fantini - Cunego, Berlato, Bisolti, Colli, De Negri, Filosi, Ishibashi, Malaguti, Stacchiotti

Cunego will lead, Colli has an OK sprint. Filosi is a talented young rider who hopefully can shine in a break.


Orica Greenedge - Matthews, Bewley, Chaves, Clarke, Durbridge, Gerrans, Hepburn, Lancaster, Weening

Orica like to give themselves a few options to take success out of a race and this team lineup looks like they are targeting specific stages and leaving Chaves to fend for himself in the mountains. As ever they will certainly contend in the TTT, Matthews will have certain stages targeted and then presumably he will leave half way through and then Gerrans will take over. The ITT is too hilly for Durbo and Hepburn but they could do well in one of the non flat, non mountain possible break days. Chaves is a great talent who is learning how to do a grand tour, could well top 10 and if Aru is off his game contend in the young jersey.


Southeast - Belletti, Busato, Favilli, Finetto, Carretero, Gavazzi, Monsalve, Petacchi, Zhupa

No bolds I'm afraid and no GC rider. Several could contend in stages and have undoubted quality but they are either too inconsistent or too old. Basically Belletti, Gavazzi, and Finetto should be in bold but they have not been good enough this year to merit boldness. It's a dreadful team name as well, evokes the same emotions in me as when waiting for a delayed train.


Team Cannondale-Garmin - Hesjedal, Acevedo, Brown, Cardoso, Danielson, Formolo, Marangoni, Slagter, Villella

Hesjedal, the 2012 winner should lead, it will be hard for him to repeat his former glories on current form though. Acevedo has had a tough time with injuries since joining the world tour but if in shape he is a great climber and a simply amazing descender and I hope to see him go well. Young Formolo might struggle with the full three weeks but is a wonderful talent and might shine early on. Slagter will look to contend on any stage marked down for the punchy rider but he has had a little bit of a disappointing year so will be looking to improve here.

Ryder tweeted a pic of his 2012 Giro trophy, it really is stunning.

Team Giant-Alpecin - Mezgec, Arndt, De Backer, Fairly, Geschke, Haga, Cheng, Ludvigsson, Stamsnijder

One for all and all for Mezgec. A good sprinter who can handle a few hills, unfortunately he's lost Veelers from his leadout which makes life it a bit harder and he will rely heavily on Arndt who is a good sprinter in his own right. No GC threat. I hope Ludvigsson does well in the ITT.


Team Katusha - Paolini, Belkov, Chernetckii, Lagutin, Porsev, Silin, Trofimov, Vorobyev, Zakarin

Well what can I say? The form team of the peloton. I would not want to bet against a Katusha rider who gets in a break. Zakarin looks like he'll do pretty well after winning Romandie last week v Froome and Quintana. Porsev should do the sprints.


Team Lotto-NL Jumbo - Kruijswijk, Bennett, Flens, Hofland, Keizer, Lindeman, Tjallingii, Van Der Lijke, Wagner

Lotto Jumbo really struggle on squad depth for a world tour team and they have struggled with illness this year. Hofland won in yorkshire this week and is a versatile sprinter who could well take a win for the team and I hope he does as he looked so pleased in yorkshire with his win.


Team Sky - Porte, Seb Henao, Kiryienka, Konig, Lopez, Nieve, Puccio, Siutsou, Viviani

Did Viviani get to pick which races he did in his contract or something. Really weird schedule, he'll have to wheel surf for the sprints as this is all for Porte to take his amazing form this year and use it to win the Giro outright. Even Henao when asked about the young jersey pretty clearly said he will sacrifice for Porte's chance at glory. Richie has been brilliant this year, the most consistent and formidable climber in the peloton and to cap it off he is a world class time triallist even versus the specialists. In support he has an amazing team including the two powerhouses from Belarus in Kiryienka and Siutsou, expect to see these two draining the life out of the peloton throughout the race. However there is doubt, he's always had an off day or two in a three week race.... but Konig could always take over and contend for a top 6 if needed.


Tinkoff Saxo - Contador, Basso, Boaro, Juul-Jensen, Kreuziger, Paulinho, Rogers, Rovny, Tosatto

Bertie is after the double of the Giro and the Tour, alongside his crack squad we've not seen much of him over the last month or so but I would be very surprised if he is not on form from the get go. He has very strong support from Basso, Rogers and Kreuziger who are experienced heads who know there way around a grand tour. No threat for the sprints and it'll all be about delivering Contador to the right point to make one of his trade mark attacks.


Trek Factory Racing - Nizzolo, Alafaci, Beppu, Coledan, Felline, Silvestre, Van Poppel, Vandewalle, Watson

No GC guys for Trek and it looks like it'll all be for Nizzolo, he's not set the world on fire this year but on home soil I believe in Nizz! Trek should be able to really deliver him perfectly with this kind of fire power for a lead out. If Nizzolo is dropped on a stage then I would expect Felline to be next in line.




Still reading? Well done! Now lets look at the various jersey competitions on offer.

I'm including screenshots from the otherwise wonderful Giro roadbook for each as the translations are brilliant.

Red Jersey is the points jersey for "the one who inflames the race". Riders get points at intermediate sprints and stage finishes. The Giro organisers presumably to make sure a sprinter wins this have graded all the stages on a scale and will apply different points at the end of each. Helpfully at the time of writing they have yet to tell anybody exactly which stages are graded in what way but we can make some broad assumptions. Inrng's preview has given a good shot at explaining it, Carlton if he is commentating is not going to have a clue what is going on and neither will anybody else. Either way it's weighted towards the sprint days so a rider who is consistently contending on these days should win.

There are several good sprinters which I think will contend for this jersey. I think it will be between Mezgec, Modolo and Nizzolo. They each have dedicated teams for the sprints with good leadouts. Nizzolo probably has the best leadout in terms of numbers however he is most likely out of these three to get dropped on hillier days like 3, 7 and 11. Mezgec has the weakest leadout on paper but Giant will be drilled and the team will be used to working in a sprint scenario, Mezgec doesn't have a lot of form though. Therefore I am giving the red jersey to Sacha Modolo, Ferrari and Richeze are excellent leadouts and he works particularly well with Richeze, my only fear is that he might have half an eye on the tour but as a proud Italian if he's in the race for the jersey I think he will stay the course. Other sprinters who could contend like Matthews and Greipel I see doing the first week or so and then moving on to focus on the Tour de France.

Blue jersey is the mountains jersey, points for this competition are given out at the summit of each of the races categorised climbs in order of difficulty. This is a really fluid competition with riders who get in breaks early on in the race suddenly finding themselves in a position to target this prize. The way the race is this year though it may well go to one of the GC guys.Stab in the dark if it is not one of the GC guys is Edoardo Zardini from Bardiani or Reichenbach from IAM.

The White Jersey is for the best young rider in the overall classification, they must be born after 1st Jan 1990. The massive favourite for this will be Fabio Aru who as well as being a genuine GC contender and 3rd last year is still under 25. It's hard to see who beats him for this so lets do a best of the rest white jersey. It doesn't sound like Henao is going to go for it and I think Formolo is going to find it hard in the third week to stay remotely in touch so that means my best of the rest white jersey will go to Chaves from Orica, he really does have a lot of talent.

FINALLY. The Pink Jersey. "Pink like a champion's dawn" No idea what that means but it does remind me of a joke.

It is hard to look beyond Richie Porte or Contador for the win. For me Richie needs to be the aggressor and put Contador under pressure by doing the real punchy attacks he is capable of and used versus Contador in Catalunya on every short climb. I would think Richie is likely to gain time on most in the TT and then the Skybots should control the race from there on in. The fear is Richie having one of his off days or a wet descent but he is going to be my winner pick and Contador 2nd.

The final place on the podium should be between Aru, Uran and Pozzovivo. Ignore Aru's illness I think he'll be ready and will not lose much time if any to Porte/Contador in the climbs but he will in the ITT.

Uran 4th and Pozz 5th.

Other riders to fill out the top ten in no particular order... Konig, Basso, Intxausti, Caruso and Zardini.

So there you go my top ten is....

1. Richie Porte
2. Alberto Contador
3. Fabio Aru
4. Rigoberto Uran
5. Domenico Pozzovivo
6. Ivan Basso
7. Benat Intxausti
8. Leopold Konig
9. Damiano Caruso
10. Edoardo Zardini

Milan San Remo 2015

The first monument is here, this Sunday it is time for Milan San Remo, an incredibly long race at 293km that you couldn't really imagine getting past the planning stages for new races in the modern age, but as the route has to get from Milan in central north Italy to coastal San Remo it's never going to get much shorter.

I thought it would be interesting to look at Milan San Remo's 293km distance by doing some comparisons....

Iceland fits nicely within a 293km diameter

The DF11 missile has a range of about 300km which is only a bit more than MSR.

Comparing MSR distance to the base of big Mountains. Olympus Mons is really big.

So now that we've established that MSR's route is long lets look at it in a bit more detail, travelling from Milan to San Remo the route has some key points to look out for;

Passo del Turchino - Coming after less than halfway into the race, in the early years of the race the peloton would be blown to pieces as attacks would be made on the pass which leads to the coast. By the second half of the 20th century the Turchino no longer became a crucial factor through the improvement in technology and road surfacing. Looking through some of the old photos of the race it's incredible that the same distance more or less has always been covered. In this years race it will pass without such an impact on the modern peloton but make no mistake some riders will be starting to feel a bit fatigued.

Giordano Cottur leads Gino Sciardis in an attack on the Turchino Pass in 1926 MSR.

Cipressa - An easy climb in theory but coming into this climb after 272km this is where the race will start to get really exciting, 5.6km at an average of 4% this is not spectacularly hard but there will be attacks out of the peloton as riders will look to go from a long way out and hope that the chasing peloton is disorganised or is disrupted by crashes. An escape will also look to increase any advantage down the descent, which is twisty and steep (you can watch a video of the Cipressa descent here), although the teams backing sprinters like Katusha or Giant will be trying to control any attackers and keeping them within a safe distance.

Poggio - The most important climb in the race coming just 9.7km from the finish is the Poggio. 3.7km long and at an average of 3.7% again in theory it is not difficult but immediately after Cipressa and with a highly stressed peloton at full gas this will cause many riders to drop away. The crest of the Poggio comes with 5.5km to go and then there is a very fast technical descent which finishes with just 2km to go. Therefore a small gap at the top of the Poggio can be enough to stay away, or sometimes not...


The weather plays an integral role in this race, it is a lot harder in grim weather and the wind plays a role too. The forecast has been moving around a bit through the week from guaranteed wet race to what now looks like a damp start but a likely dry/drying finish with a tailwind for most of the route. This means that there will be a headwind for the start of the Poggio but a more or less tailwind from there on in.

Now the candidates, there are a lot of riders who could win this race but I'm only going to focus on those who made my envelope long list.

Last years winner Alexander Kristoff of Katusha is bidding to be the first man since Zabel to retain MSR back in 2001, he certainly has the same or better form than last year winning a load of races already in the early season. He has the perfect attributes to win this race, a sprinter who can win bunch flat sprint days but who is also so much more, he can climb and like in Flanders last year he's not above chasing on his own. Gambling wise at 5/1 I think he is too short to back just because the race is so reliably unpredictable but he obviously has a good chance of winning.

Next up is Cav who won this race back in 2009 from Haussler, he's installed at 6/1 or so for several reasons, one is that he's started the year really well notching up some really nice wins, he rides for Etixx who are great in one day races, and this race is a target for him. Unfortunately he's unbackable as he had the shits two weeks ago.

Peter Sagan finally got the monkey off his back last week actually winning a stage in Tirreno Adriatico after many many podium finishes. Sagan is a brilliant rider who will win this race one day, I just don't think it will be on Sunday. If he is to win he has to go on the offensive, I don't see him winning a bunch kick ahead of Kristoff and other fast men who will be in play in that scenario. He's possibly the best descender in the sport and he should use that.

BMC bring their dual threat of Gilbert and GVA, I don't think either of them will win as I don't think they have enough zip on a flat finish, they are likely top 5 contenders though.

As well as Cav Etixx also bring two other major threats in Kwiacrush and Stybar. Kwiatkowski is another superb descender, has a great sprint and crucially the racing brain which has enabled him to outshine his junior days sparring partner Sagan. Etixx will definitely give licence to Kwia and Stybar to go with attacks, although they may be more keen on Stybar to attack as Kwia is capable of an excellent leadout for Cav. Stybar is such a rounded rider and a threat in almost any race, he did well last year and carries great form after winning Strade Bianche a few weeks ago.

Haussler is an interesting candidate, he's come back to the fore after a couple of injury plagued seasons and as a former 2nd place man behind peak Cav in 2009 is a definite option. Good in the rain, has great stamina and has impressed me in the sprints he's taken part in. He's not going to outsprint Kristoff/Cav/Greipel but he is a danger.

Talking of Greipel, he is part of a triple threat from Lotto-Soudal for this race, it's a big target for him in a reduced schedule for him this year, I just worry about his descending and his ability to stay towards the front of the pack up the poggio and then how he gets back to the front once he's out of position. It's enough to put me off him despite his relatively attractive odds. Lotto also have Gallopin, who did so well in Paris Nice last week and Tim Wellens, who is a Rolls Royce of a rider, pure class. I think Tim must be a late addition to the startlist as no one is really quoting him but he has good form, no idea how he will cope with the distance but I imagine he might put an attack in on Cipressa.

2013 winner Ciolek has shown decent form recently but I don't see how he wins, Lobato got a lot of people's money earlier in the year at big odds but his price now is too short for me, Swift got third last year which shows he can contend but again it would need to be big odds to tempt me to back him.

Bouhanni made a drama about missing this race last year as he was not selected by his then FDJ team, now he's shifted onto Cofidis as their undisputed team leader and this race is a big target for him. His form has been patchy but maybe just maybe he might be coming into form at the right time, he's certainly talking a good game, if he is on form he is a very very fast sprinter and cannot be discounted.

GiantAlpecin's focus will be on John Degenkolb, he was going well last year and then punctured at a crucial time. Degs is a pure powerhouse and I would back him to go extremely well if positioned right at the end of the race. Unfortunately the Giant camp has been suffering a bit recently from illness and unfortunate injuries and I'm not sure how much support he will have towards the apex of the race.

As well as Lobato, Movistar bring Alejandro Valverde who is a contender in every race he enters including this one. There is zero reason to bring Valverde along if he is not going to give winning a go, and from a small group he has a good flat sprint, but against the likes of Stybar or some other riders in that scenario I think on a flat sprint he'll be second or third.

Now onto Orica, they are grouped around controlling the race for Michael Matthews, he rode well in Paris Nice and they have an excellent lead out man in Daryl Impey to guide Matthews into position. Crucially I am certain Impey doesn't get dropped and will be there to aid Bling Matthews. I actually think Matthews has a good shout here, but I think he will have to be offensive to do so and win in a similar way as Gerrans tends to, out of a small group. If he and Impey can get into a group with say Stybar, Gilbert, Cancellara, Sagan, Wellens or other similar riders, I think there will be enough cohesion to stay away as they will all fancy their chances after 290km in a sprint versus each other. Also if Swift can podium in a bunch kick at MSR then so can Matthews so that attracts me to his chances also.

Other guys I have yet to mention who could do well are Navardauskas, Bonifazio, Gatto, Cimolai, Bole, Stannard and Nizzolo. Special mention out of these and my appointed wildcard picks are Navardauskas and Cimolai. Navardauskas is in good shape and is just an absolute beast who doesn't always make the best decisions but has a great powerful sprint which suits this race. Also Cimolai has been a revelation this year, he has won twice already and if you follow me on twitter I have been trying to get him mentioned on Derren Brown's live show under the hashtag #DerrenMiracle. I knew he was a good rider but his form this year has been a remarkable improvement and he is a valid threat for this race, has finished in the lead group before and is obviously riding well at the moment.

The elephant in the room I have barely mentioned is Fabian Cancellara, I may have this wrong but there is a stat that the last time Cancellara didn't finish on the podium of a Monument Sagan had yet to ride his first one. Cancellara is a legendary classics rider but he's been a bit patchy this year and he cannot attract my money at the understandably depressed odds available.


After bombing through all the range of options (and there are plenty of others), let's look at my scenario I'm going to gamble on the back off. I like the chances of an elite group getting away from the peloton as I think Etixx will get either Stybar or Kwiatkowski to cover attacks and I think too much might be left for Katusha to do to control the race for Kristoff. The shorter distance from the Poggio descent to the finish also aids this and I think a group could leak away on the last few hundred meters of the Poggio and then maintain an advantage.

My bets then are;

Michael Matthews 1.6pt win 22/1

Ramunas Navardauskas 0.3pt ew 100/1

Davide Cimolai 0.3pt ew 80/1

Michal Kwiatkowski 0.5pt win 33/1

Nacer Bouhanni 0.5pt win 33/1

Go on oddschecker as these are available on multiple books.


H2Hs as tweeted earlier.

Puncheur Double Day!

As I have had a couple of decent days and I finished work at a friendly hour today I have decided to write a double header blog on the next stage in each of Tirreno-Adriatico and Paris Nice which both take place tomorrow.

Both stages will have contenders of similar stature and type hence the puncheur double header.


Paris Nice first, now this stage in theory is tailor made for Bling aka Michael Matthews, he is superb at these uphill sprints as shown already in this race and this slightly harder finish just suits him even better than the stage he won did. The problem is that Orica did a lot of work today as Bling was in the leaders jersey and they may not be that keen to do all the work again tomorrow as they will be expected too as Bling is favourite. Therefore I think a break has about a 40% chance of making it tomorrow and maybe a 60% chance of a bunch uphill sprint, of course it all depends who is in the break but if Orica and Giant put someone in it then I'd be surprised to see it come back.

The break tomorrow will take some getting into though as the stage starts on a climb so only the strong will be able to cope with what is almost certain to be a blistering start to the day as every non GC rider tries to get into the days escape. Good contenders for this are; Albasini, Impey, Keukeliere, Clarke (Orica), Hivert, Dillier, Boom, Howes, Voeckler and probably plenty more.

The prevalence of Orica riders in my break candidates really does show just how much Orica will decide the outcome, any of those 4 could win from a break if they don't get in the break they bring it back for Bling and provide him with a superb leadout. The devil for the break is picking who gets into it! I'll have a few long odds darts but it's not an easy thing to do...

If the stage comes back to a bunch kick then the finishing 500m uphill on tight roads will mean a huge fight for position and a strong leadout will be vital. A lot of the sprinters will fancy there chances but I'm not convinced in anyone bar Bling (and maybe Degenkolb/Nizzolo) for the gradient which is in the region of 8%, riders who are bit lighter with a bit more punch would be favoured for me, in particular Tony Gallopin who is climbing really well this week and packs a good sprint, indeed he won a sprint a few weeks ago, others would include Vichot, Chavanel, Costa, and Samuel Dumoulin.

Tirreno-Adriatico is a bit more straightforward. Tinkoff will bring this stage to a sprint finish for Sagan, nailed on. He won the exact same stage last year and is favourite to do so again this time round. It really is tailor made for him and it would be a huge surprise to me if he doesn't top 5 at least. 

The above video recaps the important bit of last year's stage and it'll be v similar this time round, although I think we will see an even greater fight as GC teams get involved. Last year there were time gaps as the bunch split apart and all the GC riders will be looking to avoid that.

Alongside Sagan who is the standout candidate here other riders who will be in with a chance are; Stybar, GVA, Cancellara, Cort, Navardauskas, Haas, Vanmarcke, Martin, Martens, Ligthart and again other punchy fastish riders.

Now onto my bets....

Paris Nice

I think we are most likely to get a sprint as not all teams are going to be represented in a break, OPQS may want to try and get Kwia in the mix for bonus seconds, so despite contradicting my earlier thoughts I am mostly going to bet for that scenario but only with small stakes as I have little certainty in the race scenario.

I'm close to backing Matthews but at 7/2 I think it's just too short for me so I am going to go with 3 outsiders who I think are overpriced. 

Nizzolo 66/1 0.5pt e/w - I've backed Nizzolo all week and I don't see why I should stop now. He is better at uphill sprints than flat ones, the gradient might be a little on the high side for him but so is the price.

Gallopin 50/1 0.5pt e/w - Crazy price for a rider who is in top form, he's won sprints already this year beating good riders and I expect him to be there of there abouts.

Sam Dumoulin 80/1 0.5pt e/w - Even crazier price, fast rider in great form and won last weekend where he distanced a strong field to win solo up on a tricky tight finish.

All the above with Ladbrokes.

Tirreno Adriatico

Nailed on punchy sprint as described before.

Again I just think Sagan is too short at 5/4 for this stage, a lot of funny things happen in cycling and I struggle to ever back a rider at that low a price. So my alternative is Magnus Cort Nielsen at 50/1 0.5pt ew PP. He is clearly in good shape as he showed in Strade Bianche and he did well today, this stage suits his particular set of skills better and he could take the win.

Paris Nice

The race to the Sun as the riders cross France from cold Paris to the relative warmth of the riviera is a big race but this year it has lost out to Tirreno Adriatico for the superstar names of Froome, Contador, Quintana etc. However that might make this a bit more interesting as a lot of the riders who are looking to bridge that gap are riding.

The course basically breaks down to a short prologue where time gaps will be 10-20 secs between the main GC guys at best, a few sprint stages and then stage 4 is a summit finish up the 10k long steady 6-7% climb of Chaubouret. An uphill sprint in stage 5, a climby day for stage 6 with a long descent into the finish which could be an exciting days racing. Stage 7 will be a decisive final mountain ITT up Col d'Eze.

This course basically means I do not see much value in GC bets until we've seen the first few stages. There is not a lot to gain amongst the GC guys until stage 4 but a lot could be lost in that time, just need some crosswinds on the flat stages, a crash, mechanical whatever and the bet is down the drain before the meaningful points of the race. Although I have taken 0.25pt ew on Sepulveda at 300s (tweeted earlier) just because it was a massive price

So with that in mind I'm more interested in the opening prologue, utterly flat, 6.7km in length, not a lot of wind forecast and dry conditions. This kind of length TTs are really interesting, and extremely difficult to predict as the time gaps are so small. They also open up the winner picks from the normal TT specialists to other riders who can sustain high speed over shorter distances. A good example is the slightly shorter prologue from Romandie last year, also pan flat 5.57km long and you get a top ten looking like the below;

OK the top two are TT specialists but there is also two sprinters in Kittel and Nizzolo beating Tony Martin and just 9 seconds covering the top ten. I'm expecting a similar looking make up from tomorrow's prologue in Maurepas.

The course looks like the below;

My bets for this are;

Wilco Kelderman 0.5pt ew 40/1 BV (tweeted earlier)

Wilco is a very good TT rider which has been masked a little by a crap bike, this year he's got a good TT bike to play with and I think through the season he'll post some strong results (I'm on him at 300s for the prologue in the TDF as well).


Rohan Dennis 1pt WIN 10/1 various

Rohan is great at the short TTs and he might put on a bit of a show here, apparently he has been putting in some mega training post his hour record and is targeting this prologue before working for TJVG in the overall.


Giacomo Nizzolo 0.15pt ew 125/1 ew Bet365

I just have a sneaky suspicion that Nizzolo might put in a big ride to test himself, in Le Samyn he was in good shape but had a problem with his wheel and he can do a fine short TT. I had to put this on just in case he went and did well...



One H2H is with Ladbrokes...

Ion Izaguirre v taaramae 11/8 for the prologue! 3pts on this.

Izaguirre is a good TT rider, Taaramae is not particularly and has been a bit ill.

Strade Bianche 2015

It's time for Strade Bianche, a relatively new race to the calendar but one which has quickly become a classic due to its spectacular scenery and racing provided by the white gravel roads that the peloton cross over at various points in the race. These gravel sections combined with numerous hills and the final wall in Siena make this a hard race generally won by the elite puncheurs of the peloton.

Strade Bianche in the dry is picturesque and dusty, in the wet it's less fun.

The Strade Bianche parcours is up and down and over gravel all day, above is the last 20k

The route is pretty much the same as last year and the weather looks to be set fair so the best place to look for a guide to the race is last years race, which was a cracker. I remember fondly the cheer that went up on Look Mum No Hands when Kwia broke Sagan with a hard attack on the Siena wall, (not quite sure why Kwia was the crowd favourite, maybe they had money on him, I didn't). A good guide to last year's race is again Cosmo's how the race was won which I've linked below;

To win this race a rider needs the following; Power and punch up short sharp climbs and bike handling skills to deal with the up and down on the gravel, a strong team and a bit of luck will also help.

So lets look at the contenders...

AG2R - Montaguti, Betancur, Nocentini, don't think Montaguti is good enough, Betancur could be in any shape, Nocentini is getting on a bit.

Androni - Gatto, Tvetcov, I'll be interested to see how Tvetcov does in this kind of race, he has a lot of talent and certainly the engine for a race like this.

Astana - Nibali, Lutsenko, I think Lutsenko is most likely to be Astana's lead here, it's a bit early for Nibali to be in top shape still as his targets are later in the year. Lutsenko is a talent...

Bardiani - Bongiorno, Colbrelli, Battaglin, they have brought basically all their good riders to a race on home soil, they'll certainly be visible but it's difficult to see how any of the team can win this race.

BMC - Van Avermaet, Stetina, GVA comes in on the back of some OK performances and what sound like fairly flimsy doping allegations, he knows this race and is certainly a contender, he should have full support from BMC but I don't think he'll win here.

Etixx - Stybar, Uran, Terpstra, despite only Uran returning to the race from the team who had the winner last year in Kwia Etixx still have the strongest team here, just like in pretty much every classic race through the year really. Terpstra and Stybar should have no issues with the terrain as they are supreme bike handlers and they are both in great shape, Uran is a bit more unknown but if in form he could go well.

Lampre - Not a lot to get excited about here, Pozzato doesn't have much history here. Niemec is a good rider though who likes this race. I think he's likely to top 10-15.

Movistar - Valverde, Amador, a strong team to support AV who as ever will be in good form and will definitely be a contender, the best of the rest last year after missing Sagan and Kwia's tactical move. It will be surprising if Valverde does not top 5. Amador gives great support in this race and generally finishes reasonably high up.

Orica - Gerrans, Yates, Gerro is just back from injury so it would take decent odds for me to back him and Yates struggled in La Drome last weekend so I'm not sure there is much to see here for the australian team.

Southeast - Finetto, Gavazzi, the Southeast team have a couple of OK contenders here, Gavazzi has been finishing on the podium in one day races frequently and Finetto has quality. Doubtful either are worth backing though even at largish prices, the wall in Siena will be too much. Expect them to be active though to get on the TV in a home race.

Cannondale-Garmin - Moser, 2013 winner Moser had a crap year in 2014 but has shown signs of life in 2015 which means that he should be considered a contender for this race. He needs to have some good results to show that he is delivering on the promise he once showed and he obviously is decent in this race. I'm struggling to see how he wins though.

Katusha - I'm looking blankly at their team and I still do not understand their selection policy. Why is Tsatevich riding here and didn't ride in Le Samyn on Wednesday where he has 1st and 2nd in his last two rides at that race. The team is making up the numbers here. To be fair Caruso came 8th here a couple of years ago but for a well budgeted team I don't think they have great squad depth.

LottoNL-Jumbo - Vanmarcke, Martens, I'd rate Vanmarcke and Martens a bit higher for this race if the team had managed to bring more than 5 riders. That is not a lot of support so if either of these guys is to contend then they will need luck. Vanmarcke is in great shape so cannot be dismissed but I think the final wall is too punchy for him.

Sky - Kennaugh, apparently Sky are riding for Kennaugh and Puccio (no chance) here. Kennaugh is a class act with a lot to come but not in this race.

Tinkoff - Sagan, Kreuziger, king of 2nd in Strade Bianche Peter Sagan (2014, 2013) will lead Tinkoff, the race suits him perfectly and he's been in good shape all year but hasn't won a race yet. He will only get stronger though and Kreuziger should provide good support.

Trek - Cancellara, Felline, Stuyven, The classics god Cancellara has won this race twice before and is hunting for another win as he now has more focus on winning more often rather than just focussing on the Goliath classics like last year. He got a good win in a stage in Oman when amongst others he beat Sagan out of a select group and he obviously likes this race. Felline has been going well recently with a string of high finishes and Stuyven just exudes quality and is a star of the future.


Tactically I think Etixx will have numbers on the other teams but they so often find a way to get mugged (Omloop, Le Samyn) that it doesn't mean they will necessarily win despite the likelihood of them having numbers once the race breaks up. Does Stybar or Terpstra have the uphill punch to drop Sagan on the wall in Siena like Kwia did last year, I'm not so sure and Sagan will either have to be dropped or tactically outmanouvred.

I like Trek's options here, Cancellara will be super strong and loves the race, he's obviously got a good sprint on him at the moment and he could definitely win solo also. I think he'll probably have company of Felline and Stuyven as support too. In fact I think Cancellara could be the man to beat, therefore he's my main pick at 7/1, twice winner and in great shape it's 1.5pt WIN.

As I tweeted earlier I want to cover off Stuyven and I tipped him up 0.3pt ew at 250s, he's now 150s but still backable. The guy is brilliant and I think a touch underrated in the markets, at some point he will win a big race, this could be that race.

For a H2H bet I'm backing Niemec v pellizotti 6/5 for 1.5pt. Niemec has form and history at this race, Pellizotti has form but I just think Niemec is likely to beat him.

An absolute stonker of a H2H is Terpstra v cunego on the Kambi sites at 11/10. Terpstra is one of the strongest riders out there and probably a bit of value in the win market too but I'm going to cover him off here. Cunego is no longer the dope fuelled force he once was and I don't expect him to go that well here to be the underdog in this matchup is mental. I have 3pts on this across the sites (888, 32red, Unibet and there are others).

Kuurne-Bruxelles-Kuurne

After what was ultimately an entertaining Omloop (watching Yogi Stannard beast 3 Etixx riders was highly amusing), the next classic of the weekend is Kuurne-Bruxelles-Kuurne. KBK is a bit more sprinter friendly than the Omloop as the final 30k are flat and lends itself to a frantic sprinter team chase,but it can also be split to pieces on the climbs and in the winds. Last year was a prime example when a combination of strong winds and a fierce Etixx attack led to them escaping and staying away with a few other riders resulting in Boonen narrowly beating Hofland.

It will be interesting how Etixx respond to today's race where they bossed the field and still somehow did not take the win. They do not have as strong a team for the climbs and cobbles but what they do have is Mark Cavendish, and he is installed by the bookies as the race favourite, this is for good reason as he is the fastest sprinter here if it ends in a bunch sprint. So do Etixx look to split the bunch or will they be happy to work for Cav? I think a bit of both to be honest, they will be eager to drop any perceived threats for a sprint, namely Sky's Viviani and Katusha's Kristoff. The former will be easier than the second, Kristoff has been on such good form all year and did well here last year.

I think ultimately this will be a sprint of some form or another, last year the bunch would have caught the breakaway riders had there been more co-operation, I think it'll be a bunch gallop of about 50-60 riders marshalled by Katusha and Etixx. I don't think Etixx will be successful in dropping Kristoff but they may be able to get rid of a few of his leadout men.

Interestingly looking at potential leadouts for the sprint trains the best here is for Lotto and Jens Debusschere, they have Sieberg and Henderson to put him into position who are two of the absolute best in the leadout discipline. Debus is the belgian champion and is a good rider, he does not have the pure speed of Cav or Kristoff but I have a hunch he might go well in KBK.

I think the most likely result is a Cav win with Etixx gaining the revenge for today's debacle and Debus has a good shout of a podium or if the cycling gods smile upon him a win...

2.5 pt win on Cav at 7/2 with Paddypower
0.5pt ew on Debus at 25/1 with BV

I also like Farrar to beat Hutarovich as a H2H with Paddypower 2pt at Evens. Farrar is solid in this races, Hutarovich despite doing well here in previous editions has just come from an easy race in Africa, not sure what his shape is like against hard opposition.

To Understand the Omloop you must become the Omloop

It's time for cobbles. Thank god for that.

Omloop is a hard cobbled sharp hills race a bit like a mini Flanders, it's attritional, unpredictable, and if you're only going to watch one or two races a year, Saturday is definitely a good candidate to choose.

I'm not going to go over the route in excruciating detail, as others will do it better than me (cyclingquotes' preview is excellent for route analysis).

The weather is often the key in these races and at the moment it's looking cold and windy with a small chance of rain.

The race will start in earnest once it gets to about 100k to go once the short steep cobbled climbs start to cluster and then there will be an inevitable attack up the Taaienberg with 60k to go. Either Vanmarcke or Boonen will force a hard pace here and a selection will be made of riders who can keep pace with these repeated rapid attacks up the bergs of Flanders.

The forecasted windy conditions will mean that even away from the bergs the exposed farmland of Belgium means crosswinds can split the peloton as quickly as the bergs. The winner of this will be a one day race expert, confortable on the cobbles and have a decent turn of pace as it's rare for riders to solo to the win. Usually it finishes in a two or three up sprint, last year Yogi Stannard outsprinted the normally quicker Greg Van Avermaet, 2013 saw Paolini beat Vandenbergh, 2012 Vanmarcke from Boonen and Flecha.

The perhaps surprising results of those little sprints from two or three men breaks are the reason why riders are happy to work with each other even if one is usually going to be faster than the other in a sprint. Stannard knew that with the slightly uphill drag finish he could start his sprint early and there was a fair chance that GVA would never get back in front. Mind you last year was a brutal race, nicely recapped below

.

So lets look at the contenders, the first place you need to look in all the classics is Etixx, they have 8 riders, 6 of which would not surprise me if they won. That just gives them so many options and riders to attack and wear the other teams away. The Etixx team is made up as follows; Boonen, Keisse, Maes, Stybar, Terpstra, Trentin, GVK, and Vandenbergh. That is just a monstrous team and they will make the race.

The only other team which comes close to being as strong as Etixx is BMC, they line up with Burghardt, Drucker, Gilbert, Kueng, Schar, Teuns, Van Avermaet, Zabel. I like the engines they have to put GVA, Gilbert and Drucker in position, this is not a race to only have one pony and I think you have to give all three of these guys licence to attack.

Sky bring last years winner Ian Stannard supported by a mixed line up, Wiggo for some practice on cobbles and earn the right to get support for his Paris Roubaix target later in the year by working for others. Andy Fenn could go well but he's still a bit short of being top level so I guess it has to be all on Yogi for Sky which is fair enough as he did win last year.

FDJ always seem to have riders in an around the sharp end of this race and they have a couple of riders who could do well, Offredo was in the thick of it last year before crashing and Ladagnous is good too and showed some form in Haut Var last week with top 10 finishes in both stages. Demare doesn't seem to be at the top of his shape yet and it's hard to see how he wins in any scenario really.

Katusha arrive with the absolutely brilliant Kristoff, last years Milan San Remo winner who has started this year like a train, he's talking up his chances of winning cobbled monuments this year and he definitely can. He is the joint early favourite in the betting which I find remarkable to be honest. His best result here is 77th, he doesn't seem to like the race, and he has a crap team here to support him, I wouldn't back him at 10/1 let alone 5/1.

Lotto Jumbo are all about Sep Vanmarcke and for good reason. This guy is brilliant on cobbles. He showed glimpses of shape in previous days and he will be in shape, these races are the time of year when he gets to shine. He has to be amongst the favourites for this race, he's incredibly consistent and a previous winner.

IAM bring Sylvain Chavanel to the Omloop, I kind of like Sylvain's chances here as he is such a good rider and he has classics pedigree, however I don't like his odds too much.

So to my bets....

I like Jempy Drucker's chances here as the maybe unwatched member of BMC's team, he's in good condition and he had a strong classics season last year, as I tweeted yesterday there was 125s available and I took 0.5pt ew at that. He's now 66/1 which is OK but hopefully a lot are on at the former price which was available for a fair bit. Jempy has a good sprint and should have no problem with the terrain, I think he'll do a strong race.

Next up is another outsider that strangely I've heard almost no one talk up. Ladagnous is a strong classics rider with good pedigree and as previously mentioned hints of form from Haut Var. At 100/1 I'm happy to take 0.4pts each way with Boyles/Ladbrokes. Note: Boyles has an extra place available so if you can place it with them.

And finally my main pick is Zdenek Stybar, I really like both his pedigree, staying power, part of the strongest team with cards to play, I seriously doubt he will be dropped and he has a fast sprint. At 10/1 with Bet365 I am going to have 1.5pt win.

I also want a matchbet which is Boonen v kristoff at 6/5 various. I've taken 4pts of this. Kristoff sounds like he is at this and KBK for training more than anything else, he didn't look too strong on the hilly stages in the middle East and he does not have a good record in this race. Boonen will be there or thereabouts.